I think the testing is evolving incredibly rapidly. I read that Fisher’s Island in Miami bought antibody tests for all residents for $12 each. These are all tests just developed in the past 2 months (obviously we are all hearing about a range of accuracy, too). But to think that accuracy can’t be increased in the next 4-5 months is incredibly pessimistic, and to think that pricing can’t be greatly reduced, especially for institutions purchasing in bulk is also extremely pessimistic. I would guess that the hospital charging so much money for their test includes a range of markups in their pricing. Hospital pricing is some of the craziest, least rational pricing you can find. But antibody tests will be sold over the counter at CVS etc soon, direct to consumers online, etc. Schools could purchase wholesale at a fraction of the price. Not sure how this is all going to work, but I would not assume that schools will need to pay $100 each for antibody tests. Similarly, results will be far shorter than 2-3 days.
This is sobering, from Inside Higher Education:
More Cause for Concern About Fall Enrollment:
One in six students who’d planned to attend four-year colleges full-time no longer plan to do so, private polling says. Data show cause for concern even about those who’ve already put down deposits.
Mitch Daniels, Purdue president, was on GMA this morning. Basically reiterated his letter. No guarantees but making plans to try to reopen.
If testing (for active infection) X times/semester is the difference between in-person and remote learning, schools will find both the time and money for testing.
Testing prices are highly likely to drop as someone mentioned up thread, plus schools will buy in bulk and/or through their State Health Departments.
I can see why Purdue is so optimistic. As of yesterday they only have 60 cases in their county. That is nothing. Hopefully that will dwindle down to 0 by the time school starts. Other parts on the country are seeing DAILY NEW case numbers triple that just in their county. Are there examples of other schools with similar optimism that are in heavily infected area’s?
Bentley University has com up with a plan that I think is very good - and provides CHOICES. They are adding a summer semester for 2021 at no additional tuition cost. This gives students options in the fall to
1)come to campus (if open) - and do a reduced course load if they want (in case it ends up online later)
2) avoid the semester all together if everything is online - making it up in the summer at no added cost
3) Graduate early if they want to - using the summer semester to finish coursework.
Their Plan A - is still back to campus. But I really like these options.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/27/us/harvard-fall-reopening/index.html
Harvard commits to open
It sounds like Harvard plans to let students move into the dorms in the fall
Good to hear. I don’t know if my state is participating, although in general our governor has been a good, proactive leader, so maybe we are. Tests are still very hard to come by, we tried – and did not succeed – with my husband, who we think had covid.
They were. So many people signed up, they were filled up for 2 weeks within moments of announcing it. I live near National Jewish, my husband had covid (we believe) so we’re watching this closely.
The article about Harvard actually said very little. All learning might be online. They want to bring the students back as soon as possible – which means what? Could be Spring, could be Fall, but they don’t specify a time.
Here’s the quote:
Harvard will be open for the fall semester, but some or all instruction may continue to be online, the university’s provost said Monday.
“Our goal is to bring our students, faculty, postdoctoral fellows and staff to campus as quickly as possible,” Provost Alan Garber wrote
I’m not sure I see the point of bringing students back to campus if classes are online, other than perhaps collecting fees for room and board.
Harvard didn’t say the students would necessarily live on campus if all learning is online.
Exactly. Now is a great time to work on our critical reading skills.
Right, they didn’t necessarily say anything. They said they would re-open in the fall. Meaning what? I don’t think anyone seriously thought Harvard would not be offering classes in the fall. So what exactly does “re-open” mean? It appears they are suggesting the campus will be open for students to come to campus, even if some or all of classes are going to be online.
But yes, the whole article and statements from Harvard are just a bunch of non-committals and non-specifics strung together. Nothing that would inspire confidence one way or the other.
Nonetheless Purdue better have plans in place. With some of the greatest density of any campus in the country and students pouring in from all over the country, infections could spread like wildfire.
Yes, infections will spread on campus among students, just like they do now with flu, mumps, and other normally nonfatal diseases to this age group. Those worried about it can stay home and pursue online instead, as Purdue is offering that option to those who prefer that.
Not sure I get the density comment…I know it’s a compact campus but only around 40% of students live in university housing.
I expect many of the other 60%ish who live off campus (and have leases in place for 20/21 school year) will be going to their rentals, whether school is online or in-person. And yes, Purdue, the county, the state should have plans in place to deal with that.
Still beating this dead horse? This is not a nonfatal disease, and those who get it are incapacitated for much longer and to a greater degree than with the flu. How many college students get mumps?
Obviously, there have been many thousands of fatalities, but the risk to college students of a bad outcome from covid infection (hospitalization or death) is microscopic. Colleges and universities cannot continue online learning and await a vaccine or curative treatment which may never come. The value of the education is seriously diminished and the financial hit from reduced enrollment and revenue will put many colleges out of business. Of course, colleges students interact with older professors and community members who may be more vulnerable. The vulnerable population need to be isolated to reduce their risk . This is a risk benefit analysis that is a feature of government policy making. There is no perfect, risk free solution.