Nothing in life is guaranteed. If we wait until the tests are perfect, the treatments 100% successful, and the vaccine available to (and used) by all…by that time most schools will be bankrupt, and most jobs non existent. But we’ll all feel much safer. Right?
I hear people say, ‘if we wait until some such long time perfect scenario we will be bankrupt’ but no one is really asking for that. We should be following the existing federal guidelines and the fact that some are not is shocking and scary and in my opinion going to cause much more economic harms long term. A stitch in time saves 9. How much more so a pandemic response that relies on science and experts’ opinions and is done well. Differences in getting out ahead of this stupid thing and not will make all the difference. Rushing now and not following those guidelines, not listening to infectious disease specialists, will cost us all dearly later (and maybe much soon than some think).
@Bill Marsh How many college students get mumps?
Actually at my son’s university there was a Mumps outbreak this past winter. I know right…who would have thought? Everyone lived. Classes weren’t cancelled. Life went on. Oddly enough most of the students ha been vaccinated too.
The mumps vaccine is only 88% effective. The seasonal flu vaccine is usually lower than that. The COVID vaccine, if and when it arrives, is unlikely to be perfect. Cases will continue to arise for the foreseeable future and we will adapt. I expect colleges will offer online options for those unwilling to risk residential living, and others will move back in.
@suteiki77 – this may help you feel partially better. There are only 4 states in the country right now with an Rt over 1.
actually five – I miscounted b/c I hadn’t finished my coffee! 
Btw, I agree about testing availability and contact tracing and colleges/dorms re-opening. There will be infections, no doubt, but testing and isolating is how you stop widespread outbreaks. This is how countries like South Korea were able to effectively contain COVID.
Fort., I am reading that the ramp up is finally happening (no thanks to the federal government) and in another 2 months we should be in a much better place. There’s even a saliva test being worked on which would make it easier and less invasive. Fingers crossed. . .
I increasingly think colleges will re-open but it was not be ‘back to normal’ by any means.
S&P cuts outlook to “negative” on 127 colleges, others downgraded:
Helpful information, thank you. The negative outlook means:
Some schools on the list that caught my attention (although some would be starting from a higher rating than others, should things take a downturn):
Florida Inst Technology
Florida Southern
Lake Forest College (IL)
Pace
RPI
Sarah Lawrence
U Miami
Ursinus
Wofford
Yeshiva
Hendrix
I was the initial poster of the “self serving” post. I was thinking of rural LACS in areas where there are very few cases. Areas where opening up is beginning and will be ahead of other areas.
I’m just saying if I were a “vulnerable “ person in such an area I would not be happy that come fall, I’d be expected to hole up again. I would just hope that the colleges would take the communities into account while making decisions and I’m sure many will.
I was specifically thinking of LACS where most students live on campus, but go into “town” for fun.
Students sue Boston University over tuition, housing costs after coronavirus shutdown
https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/04/30/student-sues-bu-over-tuiton-housing-costs-after-abrupt-coronavirus-shutdown/
Deleted my vent. Apparently I can’t read (had to do with an email from a school re: graduation)
The pandemic will not only accelerate the demise of some colleges, but will also cause many others to eliminate some peripheral majors and programs, and scale back non-core activities. These nice-to-have programs and activities were unsustainable before and will become more unaffordable and unjustifiable going forward for mid-tier colleges. The gap between the tiers will become even wider. Higher education may look very different a few years from now.
I live in New York, haven’t left my house in over 50 days. I am young and healthy. My older great uncle died from the virus, and another uncle had a mild illness. I know many parents and grandparents of friends who had it as well. I know all the dangers.
I also know many less urban and less populated states should not be held to the same restrictions as NYC. People are losing their life’s work, businesses, savings and livelihoods. (and sanity)
I also know if colleges do not secure the incoming freshman class in some way, on campus, most will not survive.
We can’t shelter in place until a vaccine comes. If we have treatments (Gilead) and some others showing promise, this can help the young and healthy get back out there. The elderly and sick should WANT to shelter on their own as well.
Life needs to slowly get back to normal…before it’s way too late!
Thank you! That is good to see. I am no expert and don’t know what RT we should have to safely open. I know Bill Gates seemed to say there should be very, very few cases and we are certainly well above that, so I don’t have high hopes even if we are under 1 in lockdown, esp if we don’t have testing and contact tracing fully read to go so we can be ahead of this, but your link showed we are better off than I thought.
This site shows there are 15 states with cases decreasing (great!), 20 states where cases are staying about the same (not so great given most are in stay home right now), and 19 states where cases are increasing (worrisome given the stay home).
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
How many of these small towns are highly economically dependent on the stimulus that these students provide? What would happen to them if the students didn’t return in the fall?
Many of the places where cases are increasing because of increased testing capacity…so we are finding the cases that have been missed for the last several months.
Even MSNBC was saying that Cuomo’s plan to ‘sanitize’ the subway trains and buses each day and allow EIGHT people in the cars at a time (in order to keep 6’ distancing) won’t work. How will the people get to their offices if only 2-3 can be on an elevator at a time? Brian Williams, who I know has been getting haircuts and having his clothes dry cleaned and takes a town car to work, doesn’t think it is a good plan for re-opening the city. Something like 99% of NYers commute on public transportation. Most restaurants can’t survive with 25% occupancy limits.
My state opened today, but my county didn’t. If I want to eat in a restaurant or get my hair cut I have to wait a week or drive 10 miles to another county. I don’t think waiting a week will make a difference.
Some of the states that are starting to loosen SAH restrictions actually do have very, very few cases. My mother lives in MS, where they’re starting to loosen up a bit. That worried me at first, but then realized that we in MA have more deaths in a single day than MS has had in total. Their hospitals are not overwhelmed the way ours are here. Never have been. So, my fears were more based on my experience in my own state. And now I think as long as they are cautious about opening (limiting large groups, social distancing, face coverings, high risk people limiting contact, etc), they may be fine.
Thanks for the link. I also like this one…
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/
https://rt.live is the same site without all of the tracking bits stuck on.
It does say this:
Presumably, that is why the current values are listed with a date five days ago.
But do you and enough other people want to eat in a restaurant and get your hair cut as often as before to bring all of the restaurants and barber shops back to their previous level of business (and employment and tax payments)?