I am wondering how to give my two kids good advice about what the 2020-21 academic year will look like for colleges and universities.
Context: I have a high school senior (was already planning a gap year, long before COVID-19) and a college junior. I am a public health researcher and professor at a T20 university. I study behavioral aspects of infectious disease prevention, and am following & studying the pandemic closely from a professional lens as well as a parent.
My current take:
Given the state of the pandemic in the US, it seems highly unlikely that colleges will have a "regular" academic year next year. If they are even able to launch in September, another 2-3 cycles of shutdown over the year seems probable.
Understandably, colleges are mostly coping with the immediate challenges of getting through this semester and the summer, and are not yet making contingency plans for next year. It's impossible (again, understandably) to get any answers from colleges about what next year looks like and how best to plan.
Given #1 and #2, it would seem prudent for college students, especially college class of 2021 & 2022, to take a year or semester leave of absence to sit out the worse of the pandemic-related disruptions. I am encouraging my college 2021 student to do this.
Given #1 and #2, it also would seem very prudent for high school seniors (2020, college 2024) to take a gap year next year. However, if everyone requests gap years, colleges will not be able to grant them all, even if having a somewhat smaller first-year class would be helpful in some ways.
As more students contemplate advice as in #3 + #4 above, this will of course exacerbate the ability of colleges to meaningfully plan for next year. It's a vicious cycle.
Really hard to know what the right thing is to do here, thinking as parent, university employee & faculty members, and public health researcher.
So much uncertainty. Would welcome others’ thoughts!
Well, great minds think alike because I also just posted a thread relating to colleges opening in the fall. I agree that next school year will likely be a mess. We have a college freshman and will have to wait (obviously) to make a decision about fall depending on what his school determines regarding on-campus or online. He does not want to do any more online class.
If I had an incoming freshman, I would accept a spot and ask for that gap year now. They are going to get a lot of requests and, at some point, are going to have to have a policy in place as to how they will decide who to grant them to. I worry about all college students at this point and what they can even do with that year now.
I wonder if anyone out there in CC land has already asked for a gap year for their incoming freshman. I’d like to know how that went!
I anticipate many class of 2020s will ask for a gap year…and not all colleges are going to grant all such requests. Then the choice for the student becomes whether to enroll and possibly have an interrupted school year, or go thru the entire application process again.
What would your rising college senior and entering frosh do during their gap years? The usual activities, (travel, volunteer work, jobs) are likely to be similarly curtailed due to the situation. Colleges are often considered good places to wait out a severe recession.
@roycroftmom That’s a really good point but only if we aren’t paying $30k for a semester of online classes. Makes me wonder if there will be colleges that choose online but will change their tuition model for that time.
My son joined the Volunteer Rescue Squad for his college community. He’ll be back at school, online or not, and heading out in the ambulance a few shifts per week. We’re already locked into an off campus apartment so he’ll have a place to stay.
I believe we will be back to business as usual in the fall, maybe with minor adjustments. International students may not be able to start before spring, and everyone might be wearing face masks and gloves until a vaccine is available, but colleges will open up again to those who opt to attend. Right now we are putting health and lives first, as we should. The time we’re buying, though, is coming at a very, very expensive price. The economy can’t afford a shutdown lasting over six months (if that). We don’t have the resources to buy more time. We have millions unemployed, more than ever before. Their patience won’t last long. And the politicians know it.
I understand the financial concern. The problem with waiting it out is the assumption that things will improve in the near-medium term. They may, but it is also possible the virus mutates to a deadlier form, or a global depression hits, or some other terrible event occurs in the next 1-3 years. One could try to choose a college in a less affected part of the country or world, but those areas may get outbreaks later. There is so much uncertainty.
The community college where I teach has transitioned to “emergency remote instruction”, so I am writing from the position of a faculty member. Online does not automatically mean “not as good as”. The format is new for many of us (although I do have friends who have been teaching in fully online formats for more than a decade), but both instructors and students are catching on quickly to what does and doesn’t work. So if you were truly ready, willing, and able to pay $XX each year for live instruction, you should be ready, willing, and able to pay that for distance ed.
@happymomof1 yeah no. Bowdoin and other top LACs are very quick to say that there’s no way for the experience to be the same. Three out of four of S19’s classes are virtual and small but the kids would be the first to say they cannot be the same as being there in person. Conversation is more stilted. Class feels different with less give and take. The kids are not on campus to meet regularly for study groups. They try online - not the same. Professors are stressed because they are home and also have daytime family obligations now. Not the same. Sorry.
PLus, the four year on campus experience was an important factor when S chose Bowdoin. Being in his childhood bedroom staring at his computer is not what we want for him even if we are saving on room and board.
I think schools who have said remote learning is ‘lesser’ are going to regret it. So far I have heard:
-Remote learning is less effective and less robust than classroom instruction
-Remote learning will make it more difficult for some students to learn and master concepts, and achieve normal standards.
That all is not consistent with the experience of many at current online schools (the legit, non-profit ones like ASU, Western Governors, SNHU, etc.) that have hundreds of thousands of satisfied students (and employers of those grads).
The continued disruption of higher ed has just accelerated, IMO.
My son is not sure if he wants to defer or not. He was leaning to not deferring but then this happened. I am not so sure deferring is a great idea if it means him just being home. If he is home I think I would prefer he be doing some actual college work even if it is online and not as good as an actual on campus experience. But then I worry about 2nd and 3rd wave outbreaks and safety of having to get him or have him drive home in that situation.
I hear the “safety of being nearby” argument a lot, and I really do not understand it. Mine had no problem flying thousands of miles home when needed, and has plenty of friends who came back from abroad. I really don’t think flights will suddenly disappear without warning, and I am confused about why the kids are safer 100 miles away rather than 1000 miles away. Actually, I think a lot of places will be safer than the US this fall.
No one knows whether or how the virus will make a comeback in the fall, even if it disappears this summer. Colleges haven’t started contemplating how they’re going to deal with it in the fall and beyond; they’re too busy dealing with the consequences just for the next two months.
More colleges will become test-optional. AP tests will likely be cancelled too, so fewer AP credits will be given.
As more students are likely to opt for a gap year for some expensive private colleges if their classes become virtual, these colleges will likely take more applicants off their waiting lists.
As colleges and their students become more accustomed to online classes, the landscape of higher education will change gradually but permanently. LACs, especially those below the top-tier, will suffer the most, as their advantages over non-LAC competitors evaporate. Colleges with star faculties will benefit, on the relative basis, as online classes are much more scalable.
One thing to consider very seriously is finances. The economy and stock market may be impacted a lot longer and harder before (if) things improve. Be sure whatever is chosen is something you/your family can easily afford and still handle family expenses.
To us, it feels better that both of our kids (32/30) are home and staying in place with us. They have chronic conditions and I prefer them
Living in our more spread out suburbs than the denser cities where they live most of the time.
The other thing about them moving back is D lives in a room in a house. Some of her housemates likely work in “essential” businesses and continue to meet the public often, so higher risk, which they bring home. S lives in a condo building, with extensive common areas including elevators and garage and interconnected ventilation systems. I consider such a place easier to spread contagion than single family homes in suburbs.
DS top choices now are the lowest priced school (with scholarship $6000/year if lived at home, less than $12000/year if lived on campus) and the one that is one of the lower priced schools and has a large endowment and very good funding should our income change as well as a large endowment. I think the virus has him very concerned with the idea of going away for college or going to college at all next year. i so wish this were not happening and he could go do the overnights I had hoped for him and really get a sense of each school and be happy and excited with his pick rather than worried.
@Mwfan1921 hm ok so let’s entertain the idea that online class itself is a good way to learn. What about everything else a student gets from the on campus experience? The learning to figure things out themselves, developing new friendships, exchanging ideas outside of classtime, the camaraderie of living with people their own age, the mentorship of the adults in their life like coaches and professors and librarians. I’m already worried about our kids becoming depressed with this situation as they sit in their rooms staring at teachers’ faces online. People need in person interaction.
Maybe a certain percent of kids will bag the campus experience but wow what a sad state of affairs that will be.