There is no one size fits all answer; it’s going to be very location specific. Some areas will not see much activity. Some will be greatly impacted. Some of the impact will be based on the physical constraints like number of ICU “beds” available, some will be based on equipment constraints like number of ventilators available. Another unknowable is how well trained and equipped the healthcare providers are; in places with good training, procedures and protective gear few healthcare workers will get sick but in places with lack of training, procedures or protective gear you might find half of a hospital’s employees get sick so aren’t able to care for patients. Another part of the equation is how much of the local population consists of people who are more likely to become severely ill or die from this - people over 60/70, people with heart disease, diabetes, high blood pressure, chronic lung disease.
I watched the federal press conference. I got the strong vibe of, “Healthy people will be fine. Old people and fat people are disposable. People with asthma too, and diabetes. Oh well.” I did not like it.
I wasn’t impressed with the CDC getting the gender of the first fatality wrong. Have some respect, CDC. People loved that person, and they’re grieving. Get it right.
In areas already very short of medical providers and respiratory therapists, I predict it will be especially bad. Often these areas often have high numbers of elderly and many with chronic health conditions, adding more strain to a stressed system.
The WSJ has a good article that describes the very different outcomes that occurred when SARs patients first started showing up in Canadian hospitals, which are similar to US hospitals in many ways.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-hospitals-arent-ready-for-the-coronavirus-11579975968
"two undiagnosed men with the SARS virus went to the hospital in two different Canadian cities. In Vancouver, the disease didn’t spread. But in Toronto, one infection was allowed to become a deadly outbreak, which killed 44 people in two months.
…
In Vancouver, by contrast, “a robust worker safety and infection control culture” enabled the hospital to contain the virus, the report found. The Vancouver man with SARS felt ill after a trip to Asia and went to the hospital. Because of his symptoms, the staff whisked him out of the crowded ER within five minutes. Caregivers wore tight, moisture-proof masks and disposable gowns to protect themselves.
The same evening, the Toronto man, whose mother had come from Hong Kong two weeks earlier, went to the hospital with feverish symptoms. For 16 hours he was kept in a packed emergency department. His virus infected the man in the adjacent bed, who had come to the ER with heart problems, and another man three beds away with shortness of breath. Those two other men went home within hours but were later rushed back to the hospital, where they spread the virus to paramedics, ER staff, other ER visitors, a housekeeper working in the ER, a physician, two hospital technologists and, later, staff and patients in the critical-care units.
Poor adherence to infection-control protocols was to blame. Staff failed to wear masks and disposable gowns and didn’t wear face shields while inserting breathing tubes down patients’ airways. After the initial Toronto patient was finally admitted to a hospital room, it took five more hours for him to be isolated.
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Sloppy infection control isn’t only a Canadian problem. A June 2017 literature review of shortcomings in U.S. emergency rooms found a lack of adequate distance between patients, use of contaminated equipment, failure to use shields to protect health-care workers who are intubating patients, and failure to ask coughing patients to wear masks.
During the SARS outbreak in Toronto, doctors and nurses brought the virus home to their families. That could happen here in America. Hospital workers routinely wear contaminated uniforms after work, taking them home and sometimes even into restaurants.
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It’s a nationwide problem. More than 70,000 U.S. patients die each year from infections they contract in hospitals. The CDC warns that if you don’t have the flu and go to an emergency room, you’re at risk of getting it there. Contaminated beds, furniture and medical equipment allow bacterial infections to race through hospitals. What’s to stop the coronavirus?"
My ONE conspiracy theory on coronavirus is that the Chinese government killed the whistle-blowing original Wuhan doctor and told everyone he died of the virus.
THIS!! I often see Evergreen nurses and docs wearing scrubs to grab lunch salads at the TJ’s next door. I highly doubt they changed into fresh scrubs just to run out to grab lunch.
Went to our local Costco yesterday and I didn’t notice anyone stocking up. Also didn’t see anyone in masks. They did have a large display of clorex wipes,Lysol disinfectant spray and gloves up near the cash registers. The people here I’ve talked to are aware, washing hands but not worried. I would say the biggest concern at my gym was that quite a few people have Europe travel plans coming up in April and May.
To follow up on @SouthJerseyChessMom’s post (2/29, 10:30am) –
My DH is on staff at 2 Hackensack Meridian hospitals, though not Bayshore specifically. He received notification this evening that the patient in question tested negative for the Coronavirus/COVID-19.
Here in So Cal I am seeing no panic buying. Life is normal.
They may not be taking care of infectious patients. If they are, the protective gear goes on top of their scrubs. I’m not saying they always wear it correctly, but it does go over your regular clothes (which can be really hot).
Do regular clear vinyl disposable gloves give protection against the virus? I noted someone upthread talked about nitrile gloves and I wonder what the difference is?
About hand washing, my spouse told me that drying them afterwards is also very important because if your hands are wet, it’s easier to pick up germs. Another point that someone made to me years ago is that if you wash your hands a lot you should be careful that they don’t get too dry and crack because the crack is an entryway for germs. I guess that means you should moisturize when your at home.
I am a chemist. At every company I worked the rule was that no lab coats were to be worn outside the labs. Even if it was a freshly laundered lab coat. It is just good practice.
I am sure ER and surgery personnel at Evergreen follows good practices and precautions - I personally had observed that (and members of my family have only good things to say about that ER and the surgical facilities and the wonderful care they got). But there are some at the affiliated clinics who may not think twice about running out after taking vitals of a sneezing sick person who came in in the hopes of getting tamiflu.
I spend a good portion of my work day without much access to soap, water and paper towels…on the commuter train, in court ( don’t even ask what the bathrooms in those places are like…I avoid as much as possible …and there’s often no soap , sometimes barely any water flowing and nothing to dry ones hands with in any event…never mind they are absolutely disgusting. Purel is a necessity for me and so glad I keep a big supply on hand at home to fill the small bottles I cary with me and have a lot so should carry me through the shortage. I also keep at my desk a nicer hand soap than our office supplies b/c that soap smells so bad and lingers on my hands that I hate using it. Also use Purell
in the office to surreptitiously apply after a client insists on shaking hands. ( hoping that changes now).
I also carry travel packs of Kleenex and try to use and then dispose when opening door around town.
I just started lathering on lotion every night to combat how dry my hands were getting from all the washing
Okay, I’m fully in the don’t panic, let’s just delay the spread now camp, but this is ridiculous.
I have come back from skiing in northern Italy (not a high risk area but lots of tourists m Lombardy) to my northern European country of residence with a sore throat, mild temperature, sneezing and a beginning cough.
Official information says two things: phone your GP if you have been in a high risk area or have had contact with a potential case (neither of which is true - as far as I know!) and that the central ER at the university hospital is in charge of screening.
This is exactly how the virus is currently spreading from northern Italy to the rest of Europe. Young(ish) people (I’m under 50) coming home from a trip to Northern Italy outside the quarantined area with mild symptoms, going about their business.
So it’s Sunday and I can’t phone my GP, so I phone the central ER at the university hospital to ask whether I’m supposed to come in for screening. The person on the phone moans at me that he wants to jump out the window with how many people phone with cold symptoms and to phone central GP coverage for the weekend at another hospital and that I have to decide for myself how ill I am. I tell him I’m not very ill at all, am not at high risk age myself, would never normally see a GP for this and in fact would normally go to work on Monday unless I felt worse, but was concerned about having been exposed to skiing tourists from Lombardy and potentially being a spreader myself. Rinse, repeat.
I phone central weekend GP coverage. Am told to wait whether I develop flu like symptoms and then to phone my GP on Monday so they can decide whether to test for the flu. I repeat my symptoms, tell them I’ve had the flu before, have been vaccinated ever since, am positive it’s not the flu, that I am not asking about the flu but about corona testing, and don’t need a GP. So who would be able to test anyway. Only the university hospital. Thanks, just phoned them, they told me to phone you.
What on earth is my GP supposed to say or do on Monday, except DONT come in and put my, on average 70 year old, patient base at risk?
They need testing, testing, testing. A drive through swabbing area like in the UK, go back home, drink tea, don’t go anywhere until we come back to you. Not “decide for yourself how ill you are”. It doesn’t matter with corona!
@Tigerle wow, thanks for sharing. That does sound absurd! Good luck. Please keep us posted.
Thank you. Not worried about myself or my immediate family. Worried about my elderly in-laws who are supposed to watch our. youngest while the rest of the family goes to a concert! Wondering about exposing other concert goers, commuters on my train, my colleagues. Wondering about our travel group which was made up exclusively of special needs families (it was an adaptive skiing trip).
I have been basically told by two people in charge you just have a cold, stop bothering us. I mean, I think so too, I just want to protect others! But if I can’t get testing, I will just have to do what I’d do in a normal year - stay home in case my temperature rises, but otherwise go about my business, wash my hands and sneeze in my sleeve.
Yes, I am concerned about the many vulnerable people who will be exposed to community COVID-19, which it sounds like will become increasingly common with no ability to test people who are ill who MAY be carriers, even if their symptoms are fairly mild.
@Tigerle, very disappointing to read your story. It is the same where I live in Asia - very little testing for reasons that are not entirely clear - is it because testing is not covered by national health or because the testing criteria are too narrow or is there is actually not the capability or is it political? It seems as though only a very few countries, including Italy and South Korea, have the ability (or the will?) to test broadly. They end up with big numbers of infected, but I am not at all sure the real number is any lower where I live. Same in the US, it seems. We are living an interesting moment in history.
CHINA - 573 new confirmed coronavirus cases, up from 427 on the previous day. Total is 79,826. 35 (34 Hubei) new deaths for a total of 2,870. 2,623 new discharges.
This is the highest level of new cases in China for the week.
“A 32-year old doctor named Zhong Jinxing in the southern province of Guangxi reportedly died from “overwork” on Friday after working for 33 consecutive days. Another doctor, Jiang Xueqing, 55, died on Sunday after having been infected with Covid-19, according to Chinese state media.” (Guardian)
SOUTH KOREA - 813 new cases for a total of 3,150 and 1 new death for a total of 17.
AUSTRALIA - 1st death, 78 year old man from Perth who was an evacuee from Diamond Princess. His wife also has the virus.
THAILAND - 1st death, 35-year-old male retail worker who also tested positive for dengue fever.
ARMENIA - 1st confirmed case, 29-year-old Armenian man who recently returned with his wife from Iran. In good condition.