There are now 100 cases of coronavirus in the US - Source: CNN
There are 100 cases of the novel coronavirus in the United States, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as well as state and local governments.
According to the CDC, there are 48 cases from repatriated citizens. According to CNN Health’s tally of US cases that are detected and tested in the United States through US public health systems, there are 52 cases in 11 states. Bringing the total of coronavirus cases to 100.
This includes presumptive positive cases that tested positive in a public health lab and are pending confirmation from the CDC, and confirmed cases have received positive results from the CDC.
Here’s a breakdown of the 52 US cases:
Arizona – 1
California – 18
Florida — 2
Illinois — 4
Massachusetts —1
New York — 1
Oregon — 3
Rhode Island — 2
Washington state — 18 (includes 6 fatalities)
Wisconsin — 1
New Hampshire — 1
“hard to know how much to trust the denominator. Maybe both denominators are equally suspect/accurate, but maybe not.”
The denominator here is particularly tricky because it appears there are so many asymptomatic/very mildly symptomatic people, the retired CDC employee who works for one of my client says it is believed by many that this cohort is MUCH greater than it is with the flu and none of these people are being tested.
But COVID-19 and the movie industry have one thing currently in common; in the words of the late great William Goldman “No one knows anything.”
At some point we will know a lot more, but it will take awhile.
The Italy stats should be chilling for other countries, if there are already 166 pts in ICU out of the 2000 positive tests, and one assumes that as a UHC type of country it is applying strict criteria for ICU admission, they will run out of acute beds very quickly. The deaths are from the old and sick, but maybe the old and sick in the USA are the first line of admits to ICUs because there isn’t such a criteria. Those pts from the WA nursing home were admitted to an acute hospital. That might not be the way things can continue.
The denominator in post 3000 is not doctor visits. It is the CDC estimate of those with flu-like symptoms. They have been doing such estimates annually for decades.
Updated info on the NH case- not a Dartmouth College employee but an employee of Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center in Lebanon…traveled to Italy and within five to seven days of returning to New Hampshire and developed symptoms which are not considered serious at this time…in quarantine at home and being monitored.
I did post somewhere about the expression of need for more beds in Italy due to capacity being reached and a need for hospital(s) dedicated solely to Covid-19 patients. China did this. Most countries don’t have the same ability to commit $, bodies, and other resources to building hospitals from nothing in a week or so like China. Also, isolating patients in ICU without infecting other acute care patients has got to be tricky.
There’s been lots of talk in the British press about a pinched hospital system. We’re not better off here in the USA from that capacity from what I’ve read.
“The denominator in post 3000 is not doctor visits. It is the CDC estimate of those with flu-like symptoms. They have been doing such estimates annually for decades.”
Again, there is some evidence that completely asymptomatic cases are much greater than with the flu. This makes the denominator different.
"The city of San Antonio in the US state of Texas has declared a state of emergency, the Houston Chronicle reports.
The city’s mayor Ron Nirenberg declared a public health emergency on Monday afternoon local time to keep more than 120 coronavirus evacuees from a cruise ship [Diamond Princess] quarantined at an airforce base at the outskirts of San Antonio until further notice and forbid the influx of new evacuees.
The cruse ship evacuees were originally to be released Monday." (Guardian)
What’s the rationale for banning non-essential travel in the US? Not sure that I see how that really helps anything, given that the virus already seems to be in a number of different communities in the US and the population has been freely circulating around the country for weeks. If it’s just to avoid close contact with other people on a plane, why is it any safer to ride a subway system, for instance?
Washington DC local economic impacts (report from local NBC news):
The International Association of Dental Research’s upcoming DC convention is averaging 25 cancellations per day. It has already refunded $100,000 in registration fees. This is a convention is made up of 80% international attendees.
@roycroftmom (re post #3000) We don’t know how many people with coronavirus are asymptomatic or have symptoms too mild to be reported. So those death rate figures could be grossly overestimated. The only way to get a handle on “death rate” is to test EVERYONE in a given population, not just people who appear to be sick.
"California has another confirmed case of novel coronavirus – a Placer County resident.
This marks the 19th coronavirus case in California.
The patient is a health care worker who had close contact with a coronavirus patient in Solano County…
“As this case illustrates, health care workers are often on the front lines when we battle infectious diseases like COVID-19,” said Dr. Aimee Sisson, Placer County’s health officer.
As per the mortality rate information and criticism of over reliance on case fatality rate data, also keep in mind that we have the unfortunate experiment of the Japanese cruise ship. In this instance, we largely know the infected population (the “denominator”) and are seeing/will see outcomes. Last numbers that I saw were 847 infected and 6 deaths. I don’t know how many might still be in ICUs. This is a smaller population, so there are issues of both statistical variation and that it won’t be representative of affected communities in the US or worldwide (probably a lot fewer kids on the ship and maybe a larger proportion of 50 and over). Nonetheless, it still gives a sense of the pathogenic potential of the virus that we are tragically seeing play out in the Kirkland, Washington nursing home.
As an aside, I do agree that maybe 80% of those infected with mild to no symptoms are a big challenge. In the absence of a vaccine there is no herd immunity, and we have limited surveillance capabilities (even if they are improving), so protecting elderly and at risk populations means considering past strategies (and seeing what other countries with significant outbreaks are trying to do).
You have significantly greater exposure, in closer quarters, when travelling. TSA where they touch your driver’s license, the checkpoint where your bags and coat go on the belt, random airport surfaces, the plane, other passengers, then the uber/taxi, the hotel, housekeeping that might move your stuff around the room, the customer’s office plus the handshaking, the restaurants and waitstaff, then back to the airport to repeat the process on the way home.
And reduced opportunity to wash hands during all of the above, and those opportunities are generally going to be public restrooms with dubious cleaning.
Versus when I’m working from home, I’m at home.
If you have to ride a bus or subway, then I agree that’s a lot of exposure as well.
"The one Arizona patient confirmed to be infected with coronavirus “has recovered and is no longer infected with the disease,” Dr. Cara Christ, director of Department of Health Services, said Monday at a news conference.
Christ said 26 Arizonans have been tested so far for coronavirus, and 24 of the tests came back negative. The test results on the remaining patients are still pending." (CNN)
“As per the mortality rate information and criticism of over reliance on case fatality rate data, also keep in mind that we have the unfortunate experiment of the Japanese cruise ship. In this instance, we largely know the infected population (the “denominator”) and are seeing/will see outcomes. Last numbers that I saw were 847 infected and 6 deaths.”
Nope not true at all! This because the Diamond Princess demographics is NOTHING like that of the population generally. The huge number over age 60 ( I read 80 percent somewhere) and the fact that this is the population most hard hit and most unlikely to be asymptomatic means we know little from this “experiment”