Very good article in today’s NY Times on why low paid hospital and health care workers will continue to work even if sick in the UK. Likely the case in the US too.
There’s a lot of hysteria that doesn’t add-up with the numbers. The corona virus has caused 3,000 deaths with a 2.3% mortality rate. That’s only slightly higher than influenza, which has already killed 18,000 people this year (no one bats an eye). Smallpox has a 45% mortality rate. THAT’s a pandemic.
https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html
A mortality rate of 2.3% is 10 times that of seasonal flu.
So what? There’s a vaccine for smallpox, a disease that’s been almost eradicated. And a pandemic is not defined by death rates. Moot point.
Yes, there is a vaccine for the flu. It’s effectiveness varies from year to year. But what many, including you apparently, don’t realize is that even if the vaccine doesn’t keep you from getting the flu, it can significantly reduce your chances of being very sick or dying. Most people who die from the flu are unvaccinated or were already pretty ill to begin with with other illnesses/conditions.
The flu shot doesn’t have to be 100% effective in order to be a very good intervention.
No, it does not. It seems that people are underreacted and have since it got out of hand in China. The fatality rate based on the official numbers in China published in Chinese on official websites there are that over 60 years of age have a 20% fatality rate. Add in those with preexisting conditions (obesity, heart disease, diabetes, breathing issues, etc) with a much higher chance of bad outcome, and what percent of the USA or the world is that? Even those who don’t die but just need to be intubed and in the hospital for months, that’s an enormous strain on medial facilities in the country.
That was in reply to the person who asked if this didn’t seem like an overreaction.
If you are newly posting to this thread and want to do the “what about the flu” comparison thing, please read the thread first. This has been discussed ad nauseam already.
There is a quote function on the far left line under the text of the person you want to respond to, just fyi.
For the gazillionth time. We really don’t know what the mortality rate here is. Not enough information. Maybe millions of $$$ indeed need to be wasted on testing everyone with a case of sniffles to calm the public down. If that would be the case, Thermo made the right move today.
You are of course free to believe anything. I find this thinking frightening. People’s lives are more important than money. And honestly, letting this thing play out without trying to stop it aggressively is going to hurt the economy more than not doing so in the long run. Your opinion might be different if you were a high risk group. Maybe not. But I doubt anyone who proposes the idea that the economy is more important than saving lives would volunteer to be one who gave up theirs.
I think there is a balance. Countries need to be pragmatic as well. Economic impacts certainly need to weigh. Many people living on the margin who need jobs to buy food, pay the rent, etc.
I wonder what you think is the reason the USA has not tested more people. Do you think that truly the USA believed our test kits would be superior to any other, including those from the WHO, and that it was worth the delay to use only our own? What about after it was apparent the first batch were messed up. Why did we not switch to the WHO or other kits at that point? Is the length of time it took to get the kits out really how long it should take? Why do you think the CDC has refused to test patients (I can link to at least 4 news stories where doctors were refused to be able to test patients including 8 patients in Hawaii, the woman in California, the man in Brooklyn, etc) because they didn’t meet the narrow definitions of who should be tested by the CDC. Why did the CDC have such narrow guidelines of who to test (those who were in China or had direct contact with someone infected from
China) even when we knew it was spreading in Korea, Italy, Japan, Iran, etc. Why aren’t doctors even now allowed to decide when to test and have to go through the CDC? Why do the CDC’s reported numbers on their website seem to be detailed in a way to minimize numbers and mask public awareness of the spread (and from watching them most days, they sometimes didn’t even make sense mathematically in how they changed). Is it all about not wanting us to panic? I would feel much better about everything if I felt the CDC were being upfront and honest. Seeing top people at the CDC tweet that no one was refused testing when that is demonstrably false is not reassuring! Are these just a series of mistakes by the CDC, purposeful suppression of information, or combination? I don’t understand what is going on with this.
Of course, another option to explain the CDC’s decisions regarding testing and reporting numbers, etc, is that there are medical issues that I don’t understand as a non-doctor/researcher. I’m open to that possibility, but I see videos and read articles by actual doctors expressing frustration and talking about the same things I see that seem odd, it makes me think this isn’t likely the explanation.
All pandemic means is that an outbreak of an illness is widespread over many countries.
H1N1, HIV/AIDs, this are/were all pandemics.
The death rate is NOT an indication of a pandemic. In fact, those with middling CFRs (2-5%) are about the most deadly due to the fact that it’ll pass on indefinitely. High CFRs like Ebola tend to implode because they kill the host so quickly and efficiently.
I do think this is being largely overblown by the media but that doesn’t minimize the very real toll it is taking by those affected. I don’t think this can be contained and it will sweep through the nation no matter what we do. It’s all a matter of pace. Slowing it down at least would be nice because then hospitals could better absorb patients.
Every time I see a statement like this, it makes me madder.
My son has asthma. He’s not disposable.
A good friend is very obese. She’s not disposable.
My late parents lived in a continuing care facility. They were not disposable.
My bike buddy is over 70. He’s not disposable.
Everyone here has “high risk” friends or relatives. If any of them were to die, we would not be comforted by hearing they were “high risk” and therefore, somehow, didn’t count. It’s true that most of the people who succumb to Covid-19 were high risk, but there are a whole lot of high risk people in our country, I don’t want them to die, and you don’t want them to die either. And therefore, we should take serious measures to stop the spread of this disease.
Still home with sore throat, headache and malaise, but no fever.
New cases have come in from the Italian region we were skiing in (I live in a European country north of Italy) but it has still not been designated a risk zone that warrants testing for people with symptoms. Phoned the local health department to ask whether in the light of the new information, that designation might be forthcoming and whether there was a point in pushing for testing again.
Health department official agreed and informed me that testing services have now been made available to GPs. So I did phone my GP, whose service desk person told me to go to the university hospital…and round and round we go…explained that I was not sick enough to go to hospital, indeed had been explicitly told NOT to go both by hospital staff on Sunday and the health department official just now, and that I had been told that yes, GPs can now swab and send the swab away for private testing. Oh right, we did get an official note to that effect just recently. Yeah, we might be able to do that, you’ve got private insurance, otherwise we’re not allowed. (What?!)
So I am to turn up there tomorrow and knock on the window, for someone to usher me into a private room right away for the swab. I did ask whether they had protective clothing…um yeah, we’ve got…stuff…I will, again, suggest to just do it outside in the street, safest for everyone else.
This is …theatre. Wondering whether this attitude will come back to bite us in the arse. Lombardy hospitals are already overwhelmed with their severe cases.
Recommending this link:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/03/yes-worse-than-flu-busting-coronavirus-myths-covid-19
PS I will keep you posted, maybe I can insert some hands on drama into this thread!
@suteiki77
" I wonder what you think is the reason the USA has not tested more people."
The answer is that they do not have enough test kits. Read this article to find out for why . The Govnt is lying through their teeth in order to cover up the truth.
“Public and private labs say they’re not even close to reaching the federal government’s promises that thousands, if not a million, tests for the virus could be “performed” soon.”
"Dr. Hahn was not the only Trump administration official to promise radically expanded testing. Over the weekend, Vice President Mike Pence made similar claims, appearing on television to say that more than 15,000 test kits — which contain materials to test between 700 to 800 samples — were being shipped to labs.
In fact, the C.D.C. said Sunday it had shipped about 47 such kits."
Actually, it is important to highlight the vulnerability of certain populations, because it can lead to development of measures to protect them. When the public begins to panic, it can lead to “to heck with them, save myself” mentally, like the recent face masks hoarding (instead of saving the supplies for the people who need them the most - medical professionals).