As the leader of the World Health Organization team that visited China, Dr. Bruce Aylward feels he has been to the mountaintop â and has seen whatâs possible.
During a two-week visit in early February, Dr. Aylward saw how China rapidly suppressed the coronavirus outbreak that had engulfed Wuhan, and was threatening the rest of the country.
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Dr. Aylward, who has 30 years experience in fighting polio, Ebola and other global health emergencies, detailed in an interview with The New York Times how he thinks the campaign against the virus should be run.
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Do we know what this virusâs lethality is? We hear some estimates that itâs close to the 1918 Spanish flu, which killed 2.5 percent of its victims, and others that itâs a little worse than the seasonal flu, which kills only 0.1 percent. How many cases are missed affects that.
Thereâs this big panic in the West over asymptomatic cases. Many people are asymptomatic when tested, but develop symptoms within a day or two.
*In Guangdong, they went back and retested 320,000 samples originally taken for influenza surveillance and other screening. Less than 0.5 percent came up positive, which is about the same number as the 1,500 known Covid cases in the province. [snip]
There is no evidence that weâre seeing only the tip of a grand iceberg, with nine-tenths of it made up of hidden zombies shedding virus. What weâre seeing is a pyramid: most of it is aboveground.*
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Thereâs a theory that youngsters get the four known mild coronaviruses so often that theyâre protected.
Thatâs still a theory. I couldnât get enough people to agree to put it in the W.H.O. report.
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Are the cases in China really going down?
I know thereâs suspicion, but at every testing clinic we went to, people would say, âItâs not like it was three weeks ago.â It peaked at 46,000 people asking for tests a day; when we left, it was 13,000. Hospitals had empty beds.
I didnât see anything that suggested manipulation of numbers. A rapidly escalating outbreak has plateaued, and come down faster than would have been expected. Back of the envelope, itâs hundreds of thousands of people in China that did not get Covid-19 because of this aggressive response.
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How good were the severe and critical care?
China is really good at keeping people alive. Its hospitals looked better than some I see here in Switzerland. Weâd ask, âHow many ventilators do you have?â Theyâd say â50.â Wow! Weâd say, âHow many ECMOs?â Theyâd say âfive.â The team member from the Robert Koch Institute said, âFive? In Germany, you get three, maybe. And just in Berlin.â
(ECMOs are extracorporeal membrane oxygenation machines, which oxygenate the blood when the lungs fail.)
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What did you do to protect yourself?
A heap of hand-sanitizer. We wore masks, because it was government policy. We didnât meet patients or contacts of patients or go into hospital dirty zones.
And we were socially distant. We sat one per row on the bus. We ate meals in our hotel rooms or else one person per table. In conference rooms, we sat one per table and used microphones or shouted at each other.