In the NY Times interview with Bruce Aylward of the WHO, they discussed a provocative hypothesis that children are showing greater resistance to SARS-CoV-2 infection because they’re so often infected by the four other human coronaviruses that underlie (a 25% fraction of) the “common cold”. If one examines the Chinese numbers, ages 0-9 showed very low levels of infections and no deaths and ages 10-20 showed nearly as low infection rates and very few deaths.
I need to look at the alignments of all the different coronaviruses. Maybe there are well conserved proteins that potentially could engender this type of cross-immunity (and maybe it’s already seen with increased resistance to common cold coronavirus B infection after recent common coronavirus A infection). If the above holds up, it also suggests that “herd immunity” might be possible with the right vaccination n strategy.
When I initially saw the data with diminished infection rates and almost non-existent pathogenesis in children, I thought it might have something to do with their immune systems still being more naive providing them a protective advantage. But looking at the age data, ignoring morbidity and just looking at infection rates, there is an acceleration of susceptibility starting in the 20s and onwards, so maybe kids in school in the veritable germ bowl have better surveillance and clearance of SARS-CoV-2 (as might teachers, pediatricians, etc).
If children are less susceptible, then school closures might only modestly impact community transmission of virus. Indeed, the vast majority appear to be continuous close contact.
Anyway, all the above is speculative. But the data on children infection rates look quite clear. There’s also an argument in the WHO commission report that most transmission is from symptomatic donors.
Perhaps it’s just an example of how the virus affects people differently. The grandfather was obviously in a vulnerable condition. The grandchild’s body could have fought the virus easily so as to not be much affected.
The NIH NIAID VRC made headway on the original SARS-CoV vaccine before the virus burned out in 2004 and put the clinical testing on hold. That looks like Barney Graham in the foreground on the right in the linked article. He was one of the principals in the earlier effort and is now helping lead the current one. He initially made his mark in respiratory syncytial virus vaccine development.
(CNSNews.com) – There have been “very few cases” of children getting the coronavirus, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of NIH’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told Congress on Tuesday, raising concerns among federal officials that children who contract the virus may be asymptomatic.
There are now 158 cases of novel coronavirus in US
(CNN)
There are 158 cases of the novel coronavirus in the United States, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as well as state and local governments.
According to the CDC, there are 49 cases from repatriated citizens. According to CNN Health’s tally of US cases that are detected and tested in the United States through US public health systems, there are 109 cases in 14 states.
This brings the total number of coronavirus cases in the US to 158.
California governor: 11 passengers and 10 crew members on cruise ship are “symptomatic”
"There are 11 passengers and 10 crew members on the Grand Princess cruise ship that are “symptomatic,” Gov. Gavin Newsom said in a press conference today.
The ship, which is currently off the coast, is holding hundreds of passengers, Newsom said.
The ship, which departed from San Francisco to Mexico from February 10-21, returned to San Francisco and left for Hawaii on February 21.
Over 50% of the 2,500 passengers from the cruise to Mexico are Californians, Newsom said. Some of these passengers stayed and went on the second cruise to Hawaii on the same ship.
They are sharing the list of passengers with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and local health care partners to contact all individuals who were on the cruise ship." (CNN)
Regarding low rate in children, here is the relevant quote from the VOX interview that’s been mentioned previously; it seems an antibody test for viral exposure is going to be a crucial tool:
Was in the Birmingham Costco a week ago, mid-morning, and the general mood was what I remembered from shopping in Houston when a hurricane was several days out in the Gulf.
The man, who is in his 70s, had recently traveled abroad and got tested at a Houston lab. Those results came back identifying a “presumptive positive” case of the virus. The man has been hospitalized and is stable.
Officials in a press conference Wednesday said there is “no evidence of community spread” in the area.
Let’s hope CA does a better job with this Princess Cruise than what was modeled by Japan. Leaving passengers on the ship has been proven to spread the virus. So, set up a quarantine sites at the dock. Set up secure and medically isolated ways to transport locals back to their homes where mandatory self quarantine is put in place. (use an APP like Singapore - check every two hours).
Whatever the heck you do Gov. Newsom, don’t let a suspected 10-11 cases turn into 100.
I wonder if SF could re-hab Alcatraz quickly and sufficiently enough to manage the quarantine. The location is ideal, isolated but close enough to the ‘main land’ to get what one needs. Quarantine ‘containers’ could be set up in the open areas.
At least there would be fresh air and the opportunity for people to go outside and maintain lots of distance.