International students are going home for 2 weeks for spring break. Some colleges are requiring a 14 day quarantine for students returning from level 2 or 3 countries, so does that mean if they don’t show any symptoms by then that they haven’t been exposed to the virus?
What’s the danger to students and staff at colleges who aren’t requiring a quarantine? Is their plan just to hope nobody gets sick? If a student does contract the virus, would everyone they came in contact with be quarantined for 14 days? It seems like quarantining the students on their return would do more to contain the spread of the illness.
I also live not far from the Wykagyl cases and one of my clients (who I saw early last week) attends that synagogue. I don’t know if he’s in the group that has been asked to self-quarantine. Their was an article in the local paper saying that a woman who works at the library and lives in the neighborhood is self-quarantining. So it’s all hitting a little too close to home for me!
@mathmom, @HarrietMWelsch, @cptofthehouse, I, too, live in Westchester close to where that patient and his family live. I frequent one of those restaurants on North Avenue regularly (and was there sometime in the last 10 days) and, oh, my S2 is getting married in Westchester two weeks from Saturday and planning to fly to Thailand the Monday afterwards. I am pretty zen about the virus - there’s not much I can do except follow the suggested protocols for hand-washing etc., but my anxiety is ratcheting up to a level I have not really experienced before.
I also belong to a synagogue (not the one the lawyer attends) that currently houses a day school that a child (or children) from one of the affected families attends. They have closed the building to clean and sanitize, much like the Hastings and Mt. Vernon decisions. I was there, too, last Friday night. Logically I know there were no children there at that time and the school staff is separate from the synagogue staff, but who knows with this thing.
This is moving so fast and it’s impossible to know the risks for any one person.
On one hand, we hear that the virus isn’t that deadly and, for most people, may even be mild. It’s obviously going to spread. I get that it’s not the same as the flu but, at the same time, it seems a bit like those symptoms, no? What’s different is that there’s no vaccine. Meanwhile, many people don’t get vaccinated for the flu each year or the vaccine doesn’t work and lots of people catch the flu. There’s no cancelling domestic spring break plans those years or stocking up on toilet paper. There IS awareness that, shoot, the vaccine didn’t work this year and lots of kids at school or people at work seem to be coming down with the flu and maybe we should be washing our hands and staying away from anyone who is sick.
On the other hand, health care workers are so worried about getting it that they are stealing hand sanitizer? Would they be doing that if we were having a flu outbreak that the vaccine didn’t cover this year? Why should we be more scared of this virus than a bad case of the flu? Maybe it’s just the unknown things about it…that we don’t yet know how widespread it will be?
If the mortality rate is so low and most people would recover just by resting and taking ibuprofin, why all of the hysteria? I’m not trying to be insensitive. Just trying to figure this out. Of course it’s much more scary for those with underlying health conditions. And no one wants to catch this virus and be sick. Obviously. But it still seems like all of this stocking of food and cancelling meetings is a little over the top. Are we just trying to give the virus a week or so to peter out by limiting social gatherings, etc? I’m sure a lot of people are still going out to eat, going to weddings, etc., Certainly 99.99999% of kids are still going to school so, unless everyone sits at home, it’s going to spread.
Obviously, there needs to be more testing and rules around the testing need to be relaxed a bit so we can get the real picture. I think, right now, people can’t get the test unless they have symptoms and have been either near someone with the virus or have been overseas in a country that’s Level 2 or 3. A clearer picture of how this is playing out would help everyone.
Research into vaccines for other dangerous coronaviruses (SARS-CoV-1, MERS) had to stop when funds dried up. That research might have given us a vaccine effective for Covid-19, and at least would have had us much closer if it had continues.
Dr. Hotez will be testifying in Congress today. He says he will tell the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology:
@thumper1, hard to tell as yet. The MTA says it’s disinfecting, and that “no car in a fleet would go beyond a 72-hour period without a full cleaning.” So . . . yeah. My husband rides in and out of the city every day, and although he uses a different line from the key NY patient, the railroad does swap cars among the three lines. He’s a good handwasher, but still. It really feels as if it’s just a matter of time.
I had a video conference call with people from 8 countries - the guy in China was sitting alone in his office but he wore a mask. He apologized for the look of wearing the mask and said that if they got caught not wearing a mask they will get fined.
I think that even if someone were not very concerned about this, they likely would not have felt it was safe to go to Wuhan at the peak of the outbreak, or now, either. Do you think our country might end up with dense areas of infection as we are seeing in other countries? If not, why not? What is different about our country than other places that will keep similar things from happening?
The fatality rate of this according to the WHO is over 3%. It seems that the transmission rate is higher than that of the flu, as well. It is a lot more deadly than the flu. 0.1% and 3% are huge differences.
My friend was just in China and she talked about the fear there. People across the country there are indoors now all the time (or were when she left a couple weeks ago) unless they absolutely had to go out. She said that streets in Beijing were empty. A whole country of people doesn’t live that way for no reason or out of panic. They are scared of a real risk.
When they say the virus is mild in most, that includes people who have pneumonia but don’t need hospitalization, so 80% mild isn’t the mild that most people have in mind for that entire 80%.
The government is telling the public to have 2 weeks of water and food on hand and medicine and to be prepared for possible major disruptions. I think people should take that advice.
I think we are going to have times when sections of the country are asked to stay home for chunks of time.
Maybe you and your family don’t have any of the risk factors they mention put people in the group more likely to have bad outcomes. For those who do, the idea of a 15 to 20% fatality rate is sobering.
I am not particularly “afraid” of this virus, but I do respect it. First off, it’s probably much more lethal than the flu. Best estimates are that flu has a lethality rate of 0.1% (some same it’s even lower.) Best estimates are that COVID has a lethality rate of 2% (although new reports says it may be as high as 3.4%)
So the coronavirus is 10-20 times more lethal than the flu. People love to say, “well, the flu has already killed 12,000 people this year.” That’s true, but that number is so high only because so many people get the flu. Just imagine if COVID is not contained, and it becomes as prevalent as the flu - we’d be talking 120,00-240,000 American deaths. That’s a lot of people.
Chances are that won’t happen, but it puts the flu deaths in perspective.
And yeah, “most” people recover, but 20% of those who get it may be hospitalized, maybe on respirators, for 1-2 weeks. Not fun.
I’m washing my hands and I bought some extra soup. If I could work from home, I would.
@suteiki77 Thanks. Just to clarify, you mean the Chinese government is telling people to have two weeks of water and food, correct? I have seen nothing like that from the US government. In fact, hoarding water doesn’t make any sense. Tap water should remain just fine.
And I believe the Chinese government is flat out not allowing people outside. The citizens may indeed be scared of the virus but they are also scared of the government.
Well, it seems people in China do go to work in the office - so i don’t know how much of the mobility restriction is imposed. Maybe after they are qualified (being tested negative?). IDK but I’ll ask them for details tomorrow when they are back in the office.
@socaldad2002 Just to follow up- any decision on the school trip? My friends have a trip to northern Italy planned for May and are starting to wonder when they should make the decision. It is complicated by having a daughter with a heart condition.
edited to add: I have a friend whose family is currently in Germany and another due to leave for Scandinavia at the end of the month. They are feeling like those are lower risk destinations.
It’s my understanding that they are wearing different masks in China - ones that are medical grade with a sort of seal/tight fit around the edges. They have posters that show you how to wear it and how to modify facial hair to allow a good seal on the mask.
The masks here do not seal around the edges and only prevent water droplets and airborne germs from going out. They do not stop airborne germs from going in, so there is no point to them.
My friend is Chinese and she was just there. She said that people are terrified to go out. They stay home by choice. I’m sure in some places it is imposed but she said the whole country is avoiding social events and staying home all the time they don’t have to go out.
My spring break trip to Florida colleges is April 4-10th. I may cancel. Will decide within the next few weeks. I think things are going to get a lot worse in this country before they get better. And my company just sent out an email saying they’re not ruling out the possibility of making people who travel domestically stay home (already there for international travelers).
I am sure most are not using masks correctly. They are supposed to be for one time disposable use but even saw somewhere the cdc was recommending Healthcare workers to use them multiple times and like store them… I will have to find that article. Plain old surgery type masks don’t work against this virus but I guess can be helpful if your sick and don’t want to like sneeze on someone.