In use at Stanford medical centers…
“The Stanford Clinical Virology Laboratory has deployed an in-house diagnostic test for the virus that causes COVID-19. Rapid identification of infected people could help limit the spread of the virus.”
Oh Sharks…
"But we should still be cautious: “This is a very serious event and one that we need to take seriously and prepare for and do everything we can to blunt the spread of this pandemic,” he added, warning that a worst case scenario could lead to “Millions of potential infections, resulting in hundreds of thousands of deaths.”
just like what happened in the US in 1918. And the population of the US is now far greater than it was in n 1918. and no one has immunity.
“How many people died from the Spanish flu?
50 million
The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, the deadliest in history, infected an estimated 500 million people worldwide—about one-third of the planet’s population—and killed an estimated 20 million to 50 million victims, including some 675,000 Americans”
“https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu”
@privatebanker ,
while I appreciate that you have been involved in finance for 30+ years, you have not seen a world wide pandemic in your lifetime, nor a concurrent supply AND demand shock to global markets that may result from this pandemic.
the world has never been so financially, and physically connected before.
this could be very bad indeed.
Huh I wonder if this is where my VA friend meant when she said the VA samples were being sent to Palo Alton.
There is VA research center and hospital in Palo Alto.
From a historian’s standpoint, I think it would be quite dangerous to assume that this pandemic is going to be like anything else we’ve ever experienced.
This will be the first global pandemic in very modern history. The closest corollary would probably be HIV/AIDs but for so many reasons, a comparison of this to that would be totally useless.
Zika was never human to human (edit: I forgot that it was sexually transmitted too, in which case again an STI is very different from an airborne/similar disease like COVID) and the flu epidemics/pandemics have been largely localized (in the sense that it was usually confined to one or two continents like H1N1). The last time we really had a worldwide pandemic was another flu strain in the 70s. The world is not like it was in the 70s.
For the most part, increased global travel and a globalized economy has come with the eradication, blunting (ie we’re able to mitigate the effects of things like the flu) or containment of severe, infectious diseases.
We can model the epidemiological spread of this, take a pretty reasonable guess on the transmission rates and CFR thanks to the fact that diseases more or less follow a predictable pattern once you figure out what that pattern is (and the mutation rates if applicable).
I’d be wary of anyone making cultural or economic predictions about the effects of this virus because the truth of it is, we don’t have a good model to base predictions on. We don’t know what closing the borders, closing factories, forcing people to work from home, etc etc etc is going to do because we’ve never done it in a globalized economy on a large scale in a very short period of time.
I’d be happy to be proven wrong if anyone can point to a model or similar event that I’m overlooking. But so far, none of my historian friends/colleagues have been able to come up with anything either - medical, economic, government, international, etc historians and we can’t figure out a good model to predict what’s going to happen.
“ Bank notes are feared to be vectors of COVID-19 virus spreading.”
We spent 2 weeks in China in November and never saw anyone using cash, all transactions are done on smartphones. The money to be exchanged is scanned from one phone to another so no sharing of surfaces. Banknote spread may be more of an issue in this country though.
VATICAN CITY - 1st confirmed case
SERBIA - 1st confirmed case
CAMEROON - Cameroon: a 58 years old French man who entered the country from France on Feb. 24
SOUTH KOREA - 309 more cases confirmed, raising total to 6,593. The country has been reporting 2x a day.
As of today, around 70% of all cases nationwide are related to community spread, and over 60% of all cases are linked with a branch of the Shincheonji religious group in the southern city of Daegu.
A rabbi in New York has tested positive for coronavirus
"A New York rabbi, who teaches at Yeshiva University’s Washington Heights campus in Manhattan, has tested positive for the coronavirus, according to a statement from the university.
Rabbi Reuven Fink, of the Young Israel of New Rochelle synagogue, had been in self-quarantine after being in contact with an infected congregant. Yeshiva University said it has reached out to Rabbi Fink’s students and recommended self-quarantining.
The New York State Health Department has reported 22 cases of coronavirus in the state." (CNN)
Gap shuts down New York City office after an employee tests positive
"Gap has closed its New York City headquarters after an employee tested positive for the new coronavirus, the apparel maker told CNBC. The company said it was asking its employees to work from home until further notice.
“We learned today (March 5) that one of our employees in our Gap headquarters building in New York is confirmed to have Coronavirus. The individual was not in the office today and is currently recovering at home. As a result of this information, we have decided to close our New York office and are asking employees to work from home until further notice,” Gap said in a statement." (CNBC)
At least 13 people have died of coronavirus in Washington state
The death toll from the coronavirus in Washington state has risen to at least 13, according to new reporting from a hospital system based in the virus-hit city of Kirkland.
Jeff Tomlin, CEO of healthcare system EvergreenHealth, told CNN that 11 patients at his facility have died after testing positive for coronavirus.
CNN previously reported 11 deaths in total, including a woman in her 80s who died at home and a man in his 50s who died at the Harborview Medical Center.
That means at least 13 people have died statewide.
CNN has attempted to verify the number of deaths with the Washington Department of Health, but Tomlin says there is often a lag time in their numbers getting included in the state’s total number of fatalities." (CNN)
Test results from 45 samples taken onboard the Grand Princess cruise ship expected Friday
"Test results taken from 45 people aboard the Grand Princess cruise ship are expected Friday, the ship’s operator Princess Cruises said in a statement on Thursday night.
The samples, collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and local authorities, are from both passengers and crew members. They were delivered to the state’s public health department lab in Richmond, according to the statement.
“Princess Cruises can confirm there are 3,533 people currently onboard Grand Princess, including 2,422 guests and 1,111 teammates. In total, they represent 54 nationalities,” Princess Cruises said.
All guests on the ship have been asked to stay in their rooms while test results are pending. Guests are receiving meal deliveries by room service, they added." (CNN)
For the most part, we are only testing those with symptoms here in the US, so the denominator is not reliable. We don’t have enough data in the US right now to estimate a morbidity rate. Honestly, I wouldn’t read into or worry about US numbers because it is just too early. Use the broader numbers from other countries and WHO’s estimate.
[/quote]
Actually, I tossed those in by assuming only 5% (vs 30-40% suggested) get it enough to go to a provider and be checked.
The same thing happens with the flu in that many never go to the Dr.
One can’t really use an “overall” number anyway since the death rate is skewed higher by age and condition. I was just using what we “know” with tested numbers now to show what the numbers could be for any out there claiming this isn’t a big deal - just as the flu isn’t (supposedly - I disagree with that too TBH).
One could use the 30% and figure 99,300,000 will get it then drop the overall death rate to 1% and see that close to a million could die. One could even use the “80% merely have a mild case” and see that almost 20 million (20%) will have it bad enough to need medical treatment. Is our health system prepared for that?
I applaud China for being able to keep it contained once the right people figured out it was such a problem (vs the beginning when someone(s) suppressed the knowledge). Can we do the same? I’d like to think so, but when one hears about individuals who don’t care it puts large doubts in my mind.
This sums up my thoughts… to those who are way too anxious I remind them that most people survive. Even for the elderly like my FIL where the death rate appears to be around 15%, that means 85 out of 100 survive.
It’s worth it to remain hopeful while still being a good idea to try to contain this thing when it’s new and that’s possible vs just figuring, “Eh, it’s like the flu - who cares?” Those who care are those who suffer from the flu - or have relatives who are in the lower percentages of death. Containing it is worth a significant try vs giving in. All of us are going to be in the higher percentage death rate age at some point if something else doesn’t do us in sooner. Having one less thing to worry about would be nice.
The NCAA announced that the Men’s basketball tournament round at Johns Hopkins will not allow spectators. Tickets purchased will be refunded. Other regional sites are Sacramento, Spokane, Charlotte, Cleveland and…Nashville? Can’t remember. They are likely to follow suit.
Anyway, the predictable outcry from fans is a great indicator of how C19 spreads through people who refuse to change anything because it interferes with what they want. I bet some of these “that’s dumb, it’s just the flu, I want to go to the game” people are working from home because that doesn’t bother them.
Frozen Four (NCAAhockey) tourney starts next week in several regional sites. No word on those, yet.
So I was at a Augmented Reality/VR lecture this week and they were also talking about if this technology was wider spread then this type of activity and even company meetings using virtual desktops etc… Life and sports would just go on as usual without this massive shortage…
It’s coming… Maybe we will be better prepared next time?
Two Microsoft employees test positive
"A Microsoft spokesperson told CNBC late on Thursday that two employees in Washington state, including one remote employee working on LinkedIn, have been diagnosed with the coronavirus.
Both employees are located in Puget Sound, the area that includes Microsoft’s Redmond headquarters, a Microsoft spokesperson told CNBC in an email on Thursday evening." (CNBC)
Microsoft will pay hourly workers regularly even if they spend less time on the clock because of coronavirus
"Microsoft on Thursday committed to paying normal hourly wages to non-employees providing services to Microsoft workers, like bus drivers and cafeteria workers, who might otherwise receive less pay while many of the company’s employees spend the next few weeks working from home to avoid exposure to the coronavirus.
“We recognize the hardship that lost work can mean for hourly employees,” Brad Smith, Microsoft’s president and chief legal officer, wrote in a blog post on Thursday. “As a result, we’ve decided that Microsoft will continue to pay all our vendor hourly service providers their regular pay during this period of reduced service needs. This is independent of whether their full services are needed. This will ensure that, in Puget Sound for example, the 4,500 hourly employees who work in our facilities will continue to receive their regular wages even if their work hours are reduced.” (CNBC)
MALAYSIA - 28 new cases for a toal of 83.
SERBIA - 1st confirmed case
My daughter goes to UMD where they had students come back from several locations in Italy supposed to self isolate at home and study on-line rest of semester. There was discussion on the parents FB page that a couple of those students were seen on campus during that period of time they should have been in self isolation. The other issue is that I asked my D if she carried hand sanitizer in her backpack to which I got a “OMG, mom I don’t care about Corona…I am not going to get it”. Then after I explained more. I started getting stats and bar graphs spewed back at me that she was not at risk and she had a bio test tomorrow…peace out. So I really don’t think these college kids are going to be being the super great handwashing/self isolating adults we are giving them credit for in this thread if someone does get sick!
EGYPT - 12 new coronavirus cases on Nile cruise ship. Total official case now 15.
"Egypt has detected 12 new coronavirus cases on “a Nile cruise ship coming from Aswan to Luxor,” according to a joint statement by the health ministry and the World Health Organization (WHO…
Health ministry spokesman Khaled Megahed said the detection came after information from the WHO that a Taiwanese-American tourist, who was on board the cruise, had tested positive after returning home.
The 12 cases – all Egyptian workers on the ship – tested positive after a “test was carried out following the conclusion of the 14-day incubation period.”
All new cases have been referred to an isolation hospital, and others believed to be in contact with them placed in quarantine for 14 days, to follow up on their health conditions."
I mentioned it before - Egypt has to be undertesting/underreporting.
IRAN - 1,234 new cases for 4,747 total and 16 new deaths for 124 .
An adviser to Iran’s foreign minister who took part in the 1979 US embassy hostage crisis has died from coronavirus, Hossein Sheikholeslam, “a veteran and revolutionary diplomat”
Fatemeh Rahbar, a newly elected member of the Iranian Parliament, has died from coronavirus on Friday. Rahbar was a representative for the residents of Tehran. She is the first known female politician to die from coronavirus in Iran.
South Korea responds to Japan’s travel restrictions by suspending visas for Japanese travelers
"South Korea’s government has suspended all visas as well as the visa waiver program for Japanese visitors, in a direct response to quarantine measures imposed by Japan on travelers from South Korea.
Cho Sei-young, a vice minister in Seoul’s foreign ministry, said in an announcement on Friday that new visas will require a health survey and could require documentation depending on how the situation develops.
South Korea said these measures were being made to “control infectious diseases from Japan with an efficient quarantine system based on our advanced and excellent quarantine systems.”
The notice added that a special immigration process would be implemented from Monday for other foreign nationals arriving from Japan, though it did not specify what that would mean." (CNN0
Five schools closed in Pennsylvania over coronavirus fears
"Central Bucks School District (CBSD) announced on Friday that they have closed five schools in the district after being made aware that individuals within the school district were exposed to a confirmed case of coronavirus.
The school district in Doylestown, about 40 miles north of Philadelphia, said in a statement:
Late last evening CBSD was made aware that individuals within the district were exposed to a confirmed case of Coronavirus. After consulting with local and state health authorities, and out of an abundance of caution, CBSD has decided to close 5 schools today, March 6, 2020. Butler, CB South, Titus, Tohickon and Tamanend will be closed today for students, teachers and staff. Additional information will be posted on CBSD.org." (CNN)
Yeah, we got that until yesterday when her school became the first with a confirmed case on campus. She is maybe going to a public event tonight and agreed to bring her hand sanitizer, wash her hands a lot, and start being aware of how often she touches her face. We are encouraging that she practice super good hygiene but we don’t want to cause panic. I think she’s finally getting it - primarily because she comes home for break in a week and would hate to have that cancelled!
Lockheed Martin employee in California tests positive for coronavirus
"A Lockheed Martin employee has tested positive for the novel coronavirus, according to a statement on the company’s website. According to the company, the employee was previously flagged for potential exposure and they are deep cleaning work and common areas.
Lockheed Martin’s statement:
“An employee based in Sunnyvale, California, who was previously flagged for potential exposure to COVID-19 has tested positive. From the moment we were aware of the possibility of exposure, appropriate steps were taken in coordination with local health officials. We have taken actions to ensure a safe workplace for employees and visitors, including deep cleaning of work areas and common spaces. The health and well-being of our employees is our top priority.”" (CNN)
UK - Two British Airways cabin crew have tested positive for COVID-19 in the UK, it has been reported.
President Trump signed the coronavirus spending bill Friday morning.
"“We’re signing the 8.3 billion. I asked for 2.5 and I got 8.3, and I’ll take it,“ Trump said, signing the bill in the Diplomatic Reception Room. “We’re doing well, but it’s an unforeseen problem.”
He noted people are being tested “on the ship,” referring to the ongoing testing of passengers aboard the Grand Princess ship and said he had spoken with California Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said the administration has provided all the tests to Washington state that it has asked for and said testing is “completely on schedule.” He said production will be ramped up.
Asked why he canceled his CDC trip, Azar said, “He’s actually sent me.”
Then Trump said, “We may go — they thought there was a problem with CDC with somebody who had the virus,” he said, adding that the person in question has been tested and it is a negative test, “I may be going,” he added.
Asked if Congress needs to take more action to diminish risk of recession, he responded “All we can do is do what we do,” Trump said. “People were shocked” by jobs numbers, he said. " (CNN)