If a potential evacuee isn’t sick, would s/he want to:
Get to the airport with no taxi and public transportation?
Pay $1,100 to be confined in a plane for 12+ hours with 200+ other people, some of whom are likely infected?
Be subject to a quarantine upon landing in US for up to 14 days?
I certainly hope they do quarantine everyone on any flights out of China until they are absolutely certain they are not infected. If the person does not agree in advance they should not be allowed on any flights out.
^^Maybe. There are also reports from the Chinese government today that supplies - medical, food, etc. are running low.
Also, I just saw this in an article on the day’s tallies reported from the Chinese government:
“Another 102,000 people were also reportedly under medical observation with possible symptoms of the respiratory ailment.”
Who knows how long the lockdown in China might last. Could be a lot longer than 14 days. If you are youngish and otherwise healthy…
"On Thursday, France confirmed that a doctor who was in contact with a patient with the new virus later became infected himself. The doctor is now being treated in an isolated room at a Paris hospital. " (AP)
In addition to the USA case, South Korea also confirmed a case of person to person in country spread today.
"Although scientists expect to see limited transmission of the virus between people with close contact, like within families, the instances of spread to people who may have had less exposure to the virus in Japan and Germany is worrying.
“That’s the kind of transmission chain that we don’t want to see,” said Marion Koopmans, an infectious diseases specialist at Erasmus University Medical Center in the Netherlands and a member of WHO’s emergency committee." (AP)
Italy was added to the list today with 2 cases. And Philippines with 1 case.
In this case - probably. Not only is the situation for those remaining in Wuhan likely to get much, much worse before it gets better (decreasing ability to get basic food and supplies), but access to medical care if you need it is likely to be better in the US than China.
Right now, the US healthcare system isn’t overwhelmed so IMO patients who do get sick with Coronavirus would have a reasonably good chance at surviving. Not sure I’d bet on that in Wuhan now or in the upcoming months.
an evacuated passenger tried to leave March AFB, and was issued a quarantine order.
"A new State Department travel advisory raised the warning for China to the same level as Iraq and Afghanistan.
In a notice posted on its website, the department said: “Do not travel to China due to novel coronavirus first identified in Wuhan, China.”
Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said all air traffic between Italy and China would stop, a more drastic measure than most countries have undertaken, after Italy announced its first confirmed cases in two Chinese tourists." (Reuters)
–
"The State Department in its “do not travel” advisory also says “those currently in China should consider departing using commercial means.”
On Wednesday, it authorized the departure of all non-emergency U.S. government employees and family members at the U.S. Embassy in Beijing and the consulates general in Chengdu, Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Shenyang.
The department said it was doing so out of an abundance of caution and also because of disruptions in travel and the availability of health care in China."
(NBC)
CNN
When will it peak?
More cases expected: Researchers at Imperial College London have estimated that at least 4,000 people were infected in Wuhan by January 18, almost a week before the lockdown of the city began. Their model suggests a low nationwide figure of 20,000 infections in China by the end of the month, potentially rising as high as 100,000.
Possible peak in 10 days: Speaking to state media Tuesday, Zhong Nanshan, one of China’s leading respiratory experts and a hero of the 2003 fight against SARS, said he expected the numbers to peak within the next 10 days.
Others say virus could still spread: Other experts have warned that while the outbreak in Hubei may peak in the coming weeks, other Chinese megacities may see self-sustaining epidemics that continue to spread the pathogen around the country and worldwide.
Spring and summer: One expert said outbreaks in China’s largest cities could peak in April or May and gradually slow in June and July.
Here’s a New England Journal Issue devoted to cnov, free viewing for anyone interested.
Here’s the article about the asymptomatic coworkers in Germany who transmitted the disease.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468?query=featured_coronavirus
The potential case in San Diego came back negative,
Here’s the Lancet article about the earlier cases:
https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2930185-9
Here’s a review of 99 patients who were hospitalized with nCoV, all at the same hospital.
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-01/tl-pss_1012920.php
@INJParent Would he/she want to? Not really. However, the alternative is unacceptable.
He/she will be forced to go out in public eventually as food supplies and other services run out. At which point the person will be exposed, potentially infected, and subject to the nightmare that is happening now at overloaded Chinese hospitals. By then an exit option might no longer available.
I would rather get infected on a plane and deal with it in an American hospital.
Plus a lot of precautions were taken on the American evacuation flight-prescreening, medical grade masks, personnel checking everyone’s temp every 2 hours, etc.
I keep thinking of the case of Mary Mallon, “Typhoid Mary,” who infected scores of people, resulting in multiple deaths, because as an asymptomatic carrier she refused to believe she was a danger to others and continued to work as a cook despite the fact that everywhere she went people came down with mysterious, and sometimes deadly cases of typhoid. She had to be forcibly quarantined and lived much of her life in isolation after willfully failing to take proper precautions to protect the public.
Received a communication from a cruise line. We are scheduled to for a 10 day cruise in French Polynesia - departing early March.
Basically it said…if you have been to China in the last 30 days, you must cancel and you will receive a full refund. Everyone will be screened by touchless temperature readers upon checkin. If you are read at 100.4 or higher you will be denied embarkation - no refund. You must then take it up with your insurance.
Gotta say that I wouldn’t want to be on a cruise ship. With the track record of how other illness can spread like wildfire on ships, I would cancel.
A student from our high school was studying in Beijing this year, has returned home and will return to school in the coming days. The note from school said they had a 5 day quarantine before leaving China. I am not sure who the student is or whether they are back in class yet. Guessing they will have them wait until whatever the quarantine period is supposed to be - is it 2 weeks? Or do they not really know how long incubation is yet?
I heard on the radio yesterday, the concession is 2 weeks max.
I thought this was a good overview/update with lots of FAQs
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