@privatebanker I don’t think being very concerned about this CV means you don’t have a cool head.
Well, the experts - not me nor you - seem to be calling for more. I’ll defer to them.
I feel like Fauci keeps talking reality and pushing incrementally trying to get the administration on board. Probably takes a lot of repeating a patience to move the needle.
The only thing in my head keeping me not “cool” is anger and frustration. Listen to my own story of my family coming from the hottest hot spot and stories others have posted here, and then tell me if it is being handled well. All of us have a right to be frustrated with that. Hope things planned do happen and have an impact to slow down the spread but don’t blame people for their lack of trust right now.
With respect…how can they know that? The Seattle Times article in the post just before yours says they don’t know…
Regardless, I hope both HCPs are able to recover.
I wasn’t suggesting not to be concerned, not in the least.
There’s plenty of room for caution and voices of concern. Perhaps a few reassuring voices shouldn’t be unwelcome. Either way it’s my opinion
I believe the biggest problem can turn into panic. And what we ultimately be the worse we face, is not necessarily the virus. Although that is something that requires all hands on deck.
All I’m suggesting is for calm and collected behavior. Markets crashing. Hoarding. And over taxing our health care systems with frightened citizens doesn’t help anyone.
That’s my only point. And I wish the best for everyone and their safety.
@doschicos i think that there should be a nationwide quarantine. Like the blizzard analogy I made days ago. Shut it all down. I’m 100 percent on your side. I’m just a bit of an optimist. I don’t want it all to come crumbling down.
Millions and millions of lives may be ruined long term by this and I’m hoping that’s not the case. My gut reels me fear is taking over individual decision making.
Why is asking for calm controversial. There’s plenty of fear out there for all of us.
“i think that there should be a nationwide quarantine.”
At least nationwide, possibly wider than that if we can get other countries to go along.
Many, many countries already have.
UPDATE from Washington State College of Emergency Physicians
Every ED in the Puget Sound region has experienced an increase in respiratory cases, with multiple COVID19 positive cases each week if not daily in the ED. We have seen a concomitant decline in other issues.
While our inpatient capacity is stretched, we have not yet run out of vents or ICUs at about 2-3 weeks into the epidemic. However things are very tight.
We are concerned this is the “calm before the storm” and anticipate this could rapidly worsen as the epidemic evolves.
30 people have died, typically older with comorbidities. However there have been individuals in their 30-40s who have been intubated and who don’t have significant underlying illness other than mild obesity.
Our inpatient capacity is tight and elective surgical cases are being canceled, some chemotherapy treatments requiring hospitalization are postponed. One hospital has done a quick construction job to install fans in windows and convert a unit to negative pressure. While we are not to the point of rationing ventilators yet, we are having conversations around such protocols.
The community is beginning to finally realize the seriousness of the situation, with school closures and cancellations of large gatherings. Our workforce has consequently been impacted by childcare challenges. Some hospitals are implementing or expanding their own childcare service programs for staff
Andy Slavitt, now being interviewed on MSNBC, says the message needs to be #StayHome. He is reasonable, rational, and very experienced: former acting administrator of the CMS.
I have been in medical device quality assurance for 30 years. I want to help get more high quality ventilators out there (my skin crawls at the thought of auto manufacturers building Class 2 medical devices). How can I help?
from CDC.gov
“… CDC, in accordance with its guidance for large events and mass gatherings, recommends that for the next 8 weeks, organizers (whether groups or individuals) cancel or postpone in-person events that consist of 50 people or more throughout the United States.”
that’s 8 weeks folks - although at the end it does state “… This recommendation does not apply to the day to day operation of organizations such as schools, institutes of higher learning, or businesses. This recommendation is made in an attempt to reduce introduction of the virus into new communities and to slow the spread of infection in communities already affected by the virus.”
Guidance as of 3/15/2020
Large events and mass gatherings can contribute to the spread of COVID-19 in the United States via travelers who attend these events and introduce the virus to new communities. Examples of large events and mass gatherings include conferences, festivals, parades, concerts, sporting events, weddings, and other types of assemblies. These events can be planned not only by organizations and communities but also by individuals.
Therefore, CDC, in accordance with its guidance for large events and mass gatherings, recommends that for the next 8 weeks, organizers (whether groups or individuals) cancel or postpone in-person events that consist of 50 people or more throughout the United States.
Events of any size should only be continued if they can be carried out with adherence to guidelines for protecting vulnerable populations, hand hygiene, and social distancing. When feasible, organizers could modify events to be virtual.
This recommendation does not apply to the day to day operation of organizations such as schools, institutes of higher learning, or businesses. This recommendation is made in an attempt to reduce introduction of the virus into new communities and to slow the spread of infection in communities already affected by the virus. This recommendation is not intended to supersede the advice of local public health officials.
“Goldman Sachs Warns S&P 500 Might Not Bottom Until 2,000”
For investors asking whether Friday’s stock rally marked the bottom of the current rout, Goldman Sachs Group has an unpleasant answer: not yet.
The firm’s U.S. chief equity strategist, David Kostin, says the S&P 500 will likely head back down by almost 10% in the next three months to 2,450. And if the economic fallout from the spreading coronavirus deepens, the rout can take stocks down another 26% from Friday’s close to 2,000. That’s 20% lower than the bottom he called just last week.
Kostin warned that the spreading coronavirus will damage profits and harm the economy to an unpredictable extent as governments scramble to contain the outbreak and companies face forced interruptions to their businesses.
“The coronavirus has created unprecedented financial and societal disruption,” he wrote in a note to clients. “The combination of thin liquidity, high uncertainty, and positioning could cause the S&P 500 to fall below our 2,450 base case estimate of fair value and closer to a trough of 2,000.”
This would unfortunately, not surprise me at all. And the way futures are looking points to another bloody week for financial markets.
When the entire country shuts down for months, and millions are thrown out of work, then we should expect this to happen.
Apparently things went much smoother at DFW today for passengers returning from places overseas.
Iare
Help import them from China.
The US is not a leader in any of this.
Argument by Dora Anne Mills, highly-respected former Director of Public Health in Maine, on why it might not be a good idea to close schools:
“Many K-12 schools are closing in Maine, mostly announced the last two days. This has been an interesting phenomenon to follow, since new U.S. CDC guidance, based on data on COVID from other countries, does not encourage schools to close. For Maine at this point in time, their recommendation is not to close schools. But the reasons are complicated, and sometimes in an emerging epidemic, people feel it is best to “err on the safe side”, and I understand parents have put a great deal of pressure on school leaders to close. I’ll try to explain the reasons behind U.S. CDC’s recommendations.
First, we need to remember that COVID is not influenza. For a pandemic with influenza, schools in Maine would likely all be closed now. The reasons are that school children are known high community transmitters of influenza, and they are disproportionately impacted by the infection, in that they are at high risk for severe disease. What I mean by “high community transmitters” is it is well documented that school children, after spending all day together with typical school children hygiene that results in the sharing a lot of germs (through not covering coughs and sneezes, and not washing hands), they disperse home across the community, taking those germs with them, and then pass them on to mom, dad, siblings, grandparents, etc. Then mom and dad take those germs with them to work, the grocery store, and elsewhere. There is even evidence that if you have limited influenza vaccine, you should consider vaccinating school and daycare children, since that provides more protection for the entire community. (It is what we did early on in Maine during H1N1, which, according to published studies, is one reason why Maine was spared being impacted as hard as other states, including not having one child die to the pandemic). Additionally, influenza pandemics typically severely impact children, and they are in a high-risk group for severe disease.
By contrast, for COVID-19, the data are compelling from China and increasingly elsewhere, that children are mildly impacted by the infection. There are also data indicating they are not high community transmitters for COVID. That doesn’t mean they don’t transmit it, but preliminary data indicate they may not be high (major) community transmitters.
Secondly, U.S. CDC’s guidance discusses the major downsides to closing K-12 schools. For instance, with one in five Maine children living with food insecurity, and their most reliable source of food often being school, closures can mean more children going hungry. My son works in a local elementary school where a large proportion of students eat three meals per day there and take food home for the weekends. He is worried how they will fare during this closure.
Additionally, some children are safer at school than they are at home, due to a variety of reasons, including having parents with severe behavioral or physical health issues. Although a number of children can learn at home via distance technology, not all children have access to the technology, and children with some types of disabilities cannot learn through distant modalities. With one in six Maine children living in poverty, mostly in families with working parents, it may be a very challenging time for those parents to stay home to care for children.
In our rural areas, the issues of food insecurity, poverty, and safety are increased. For instance, six rural Maine counties have between 20% and 30% of children living in poverty.”
End of part 1
Part 2
“One major purpose for closing schools is to increase social distancing. However, when New York City closed schools during the early phases of the H1N1 pandemic, many of them congregated in groups anyway. Teenagers got together in homes and parks. And younger children congregated in homes with parents sharing child care.
Finally, a major challenge directly related to the pandemic is that school closings mean more essential workers have to stay home. This includes nurses, doctors, and first responders – the very people we need to be working to take care of patients during the pandemic.
U.S. CDC’s guidance for schools tries to balance factors such as the emerging data on COVID and the downsides of school closure. Here are some highlights of their guidance.
If there is a person in the school with confirmed COVID-19 who was symptomatic while in the building, then the school may consider closing for 2 – 5 days for cleaning and disinfecting and to help stop the spread. During this time, it is okay for some staff to work in the building.
If there is no community spread in the school’s community, then U.S. CDC recommends: a strong focus on teaching and reinforcing hygiene; more frequent cleaning and disinfecting surfaces that are frequently touched with hands (door knobs, hand railings, etc.); postponing group gatherings and events; and requiring sick students and staff to stay at home.
If there is minimal to moderate community spread, U.S. CDC recommends implementing multiple social distancing strategies, such as spreading students out in the classroom, as much as possible, such as increasing the spaces between desks and having students face the same direction rather than each other; having students not congregate in large groups, for instance, staggering their times in the cafeteria, recess time, and dismissals; limiting nonessential visitors; and identifying staff and children who are at high-risk for severe disease, and consider having them stay home.
If there is substantial community spread, then U.S. CDC says schools can stay open with strict hygiene and social distancing practices implemented. Or, schools can dismiss for an extended time (more than 2 weeks).
U.S. CDC strongly recommends that no matter what circumstances schools close, they continue meal programs and other essential services for students.
Quotes from U.S. CDC’s Guidance:
“Available modeling data indicate that early, short to medium closures do not impact the epidemiology curve of COVID-19 or available health care measures (e.g., hospitalizations). There may be some impact of much longer closures (8 weeks, 20 weeks) further into community spread, but that modeling also shows that other mitigation efforts (e.g., hand washing, home isolation) have more impact on both spread of disease and health care measures. In other countries, those places who closed school (e.g., Hong Kong) have not had more success in reducing spread than those that did not (e.g., Singapore).
In places where school closures are necessary, the anticipated academic and economic impacts and unintended impacts on disease outcomes must be planned for and mitigated. Provision of academic support (e.g., tele-ed), alternatives for school-based meals as well as other services (e.g., behavioral and mental health services) for economically and physically vulnerable children, support for families for whom telework and paid sick leave is not available, ensuring that high risk individuals continue to be protected must all be addressed. Special consideration must be given for health care workers so that school closures do not impact their ability to work.”
I should mention that although Singapore did not close schools, they also implemented very strict respiratory hygiene and social distancing policies that may be difficult to enforce in many U.S. schools.
Some have pointed to the odd paradox of public health officials encouraging employers to allow people to work from home when possible as well as the closure of colleges and universities. Having employees work from home when possible is a way to increase social distancing, even if some workers remain at the workplace.
For colleges, universities and other boarding schools, there are two major concerns. First, it is nearly impossible for many of these institutions to control the spread of the infection. Some are able to isolate and cohort sick students, such as placing them in an infirmary or extra rooms. But many do not have such facilities, and students are typically live in crowded dorms. Second, this pandemic spread across the U.S. during the typical spring break season, making it risky to re-open. Bowdoin College, for instance, had adjourned for 2 weeks’ of vacation 2 weeks ago, before there were many known cases in the U.S. outside of the Seattle area. Before the first week of vacation had ended, COVID-19 had spread to Boston, New York, and more than half of states. Bringing Bowdoin students back from all over the country today would have meant also bringing COVID-19 onto campus. They wisely chose to not re-open.
So, this is a long explanation about the U.S. CDC’s recommendations on school closures. While I understand why many schools are closing, I also understand why many are staying open for now. There are many complicated factors to consider, and as of this morning (keep in mind the situation could change in a matter of hours), it seems that education leaders in Maine have made some very difficult decisions and will continue to assess the situation and what is best for their communities, including considering the factors mentioned here.
A decision that is made for one school and community may not be the same for other schools and communities, even with a similar COVID-19 situation in their community. And that is appropriate for this point in time. Again, the situation could change at anytime, e.g. if the country goes into a shutdown. I hope by sharing this information we can all make more informed decisions, including ways communities with closed schools can help assure the health and safety of our children.”
Considerations for School Closure
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/considerations-for-school-closure.pdf
Guidance for Administrators of K-12 Schools and Childcare Programs
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/schools-childcare/guidance-for-schools.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fspecific-groups%2Fguidance-for-schools.html#confirmed-case
Checklist for Teachers and Parents for K-12 Schools and Childcare
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/schools-childcare/checklist.html
Children and COVID-19 FAQ
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/children-faq.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fspecific-groups%2Fchildren-faq.html
How to Talk with Children on COVID-19
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/schools-childcare/talking-with-children.html”
On Friday, I changed both my kids’ 529 college savings accounts from “Age Based Aggressive Global” equity fund to a very conservative “FDIC” based fund to protect the money. I don’t want to take any chances with a D20 starting college in the fall and a S24 starting high school.
I’ll evaluate my conservative investment strategy in 6 months.
Some good points made about school closure. Too late this time around but certainly points to the need for this country to address systemic issues. No state, and it is common, should have 1 out of 6 students living in poverty nor 25% of students that are food insecure. Many individual communities obviously have much higher numbers.
Good move. With a 1-4 year window for a good portion of your college savings, you shouldn’t be in anything aggressive.