45 days = 6.4 weeks. If we need another 6.4 weeks for the case rate to decline, that means about 13 weeks of social isolation, or about a quarter of the year.
If social isolation shuts down half of the economy during that period, that will mean an economic downturn of one eighth (about -12.5%) for the year.
For comparison, since 1930, the worst GDP declines in the US were in 1932 (-12.9%) and 1946 (-11.9%). No year since 1946 has seen a GDP decline worse than 2009 (-2.5%).
Italy to renationalise former national carrier Alitalia
The government of Italy has announced it is to renationalise the former national carrier Alitalia to make sure Italian nationals are never again left stranded overseas by a crisis like the coronavirus pandemic.
The takeover, part of a €25bn coronavirus response plan, will cost taxpayers up to €600m, AFP reports. Deputy economy minister Laura Castelli told Italian radio on Tuesday:
At a time like this, a flag carrier gives the government more leeway. We all saw the difficulties our compatriots faced in returning to Italy. Our decision stems from this.
The transport minister Paola De Micheli said a “national carrier was strategic for our country at a time of crisis”.
Alitalia faced the threat of closure even before Covid-19 killed more than 2,100 people in Italy and grounded the overwhelming majority of most airlines’ flights. The 74-year-old company filed for bankruptcy in 2017 and looked doomed in January when it failed to secure rescues from either the Italian state railway or Germany’s Lufthansa.
Australia urges citizens to fly home
Australians are being urged to fly home as soon as possible to avoid being stranded overseas due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Travel advice issued on Tuesday evening by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade said Australians should return home before the virus caused more borders to close.
Travellers are also being urged to reconsider their need to go overseas.
“If you’re already overseas and wish to return to Australia, we recommend you do so as soon as possible by commercial means,” the advice read.
“You may not be able to return to Australia when you had planned to. Consider whether you have access to health care and support systems if you get sick while overseas.”
Chances are this is happening or being set up now too. It is everywhere I know about. People care about kids and don’t want them going hungry.
The virus is new. Leaders are making their best guesses on how to respond and using countries that have shown success/failure as examples. The spread being exponential means speed is crucial. Slowing the spread is essential. Kids being able to eat is also essential. People see this and are on it - as I said - our school has more people wanting to volunteer than they need. We all do what we can to try to help.
Well, everyone except those who are continuing life as normal not caring a hoot about others or caring more about money figuring they, themselves, are safe.
My mind has wondered if schools were kept open just how many staff would be calling in sick. Are there enough substitute teachers/kitchen workers, etc? Can they effectively do the job? I guess if the job is babysitting they probably can if there are enough out there. Many of our subs are in the critical categories with age and/or health issues though - as are significant numbers of the staff.
Fauci says we won’t know if the curve if flattening “for several weeks or maybe longer”
From CNN’s Betsy Klein
The National Institutes of Health’s Dr. Anthony Fauci provided an explanation for why we might not know whether we’re actually flattening the curve for several weeks of containment and mitigation measures.
Fauci said that because the curve of those who have the virus will certainly continue to go up, it will be hard to tell immediately whether those measure are having an effect.
“It probably would be several weeks or maybe longer before we know whether we had an effect. And maybe, at the end of the day, we’ll see a curve that would’ve been way, way up. But I wouldn’t, like, put us to task every few days. ‘Well wait a minute, it’s going up, is it working or not?’ That would be really misleading if we do that,” he said.
-China has closed down its last coronavirus hospital. Not enough new cases to support them.
Doctors in India have been successful in treating Coronavirus. Combination of drugs used: Lopinavir, Retonovir, Oseltamivir along with Chlorphenamine. They are going to suggest same medicine, globally.
Researchers of the Erasmus Medical Center claim to have found an antibody against coronavirus.
A 103-year-old Chinese grandmother has made a full recovery from COVID-19 after being treated for 6 days in Wuhan, China.
Apple reopens all 42 china stores,
Cleveland Clinic developed a COVID-19 test that gives results in hours, not days.
Good news from South Korea, where the number of new cases is declining.
Italy is hit hard, experts say, only because they have the oldest population in Europe.
Scientists in Israel likely to announce the development of a coronavirus vaccine.
3 Maryland coronavirus patients fully recovered; able to return to everyday life.
A network of Canadian scientists are making excellent progress in Covid-19 research.
A San Diego biotech company is developing a Covid-19 vaccine in collaboration with Duke University and National University of Singapore.
Tulsa County's first positive COVID-19 case has recovered. This individual has had two negative tests, which is the indicator of recovery.
All 7 patients who were getting treated for at Safdarjung hospital in New Delhi have recovered.
Plasma from newly recovered patients from Covid -19 can treat others infected by Covid-19.
So it’s not all bad news. Let’s care for each other and stay focused on safety of those most vulnerable.
@Qtinfo
When I was in the ER last week, the infectious disease person said they were looking at anti malarial drugs like plaquenil (one I take) for prevention and treatment.
Looking at pre-existing treatment options is a better use of our immediate time than trying to find a new med imo.
^ Yeah, most Western countries are following up Italy’s curve (a few flatter, Canada seems not to have taken off yet, and Spain is somehow doing even worse).
The good news is that warmer weather and humidity does seem to dampen this coronavirus (like pretty much all respiratory viruses). Which is why the tropical countries (India, Singapore, rest of SE Asia) haven’t been hit hard and also augers well for sub-Saharan Africa and most of the Middle East (Iran, which is mostly on a plateau, does get cold in winter; as does northern Italy).
Drs Fauci and Birx clarified that WHO never offered the testing kits AND their kits were research grade with about 40-50% reliability. I assume they are trustworthy.
Here’s where our previous lack of testing is going to bite us.
Since Last Friday my husband’s department:
Lost an intern, who got sent home to self quarantine because she had just returned from vacationing near a hot spot.
Lost a resident, who popped a fever while on call, was sent to the newly erected tent, tested, sent home, and her results were positive.
Lost a staff physician was feeling ill, tested, sent home and is awaiting results.
Had a pregnant person show up in the ER feeling ill, the ER did NOT send her to the newly erected testing tent, but sent her to labor and delivery, where she threw up. She has since tested positive, and all of the nurses etc, who were handling her in both the ER and L and D are now home on quarantine and awaiting test results.
Hard to keep up its crazy at work. Did anyone post that they are suspending tax payments below 1mm for now. Also the WHO test controversy was completely shut down by the medical people. Research grade and not reliable for American medical standards. Also not offered in any meaningful way.
I’ve read the past page or two and didn’t see it. But this moves so fast.
Money directly to those with income loss is really good. And the army corps is on standby for three states.
Carry on. I’ve got to get back to things here. And keep up the great work.
@eastcoascrazy so sorry to hear about those providers who tested positive. What a fiasco about the patient being sent to maternity. Prayers for all providers and patients.
New Jersey has 89 new cases of coronavirus
New Jersey confirms 89 new coronavirus cases, bringing the statewide total to 267, Gov. Phil Murphy just announced in an ongoing press conference.
New Mexico now has 20 confirmed cases
New Mexico public health officials now say the state has 20 confirmed cases of novel coronavirus, according to the Arizona Department of Health Services website.
The world’s largest hotel chain is starting to furlough employees
From CNN’s Jordan Valinsky
Marriott International, the world’s largest hotel chain, has started furloughing employees.
Tens of thousands of workers could be affected by the furloughs as demand dries up for travel due to the coronavirus pandemic.
All levels of Marriott employees could be furloughed — from housekeepers to general managers. There won’t be job cuts on the corporate level yet. The company has also begun shutting down some of its managed hotels.
Marriott said in a statement to CNN Business that its business has been “experiencing significant drops in demand” at its hotels because of the pandemic and is “adjusting global operations accordingly.”
“We are working quickly to mitigate the impact to our business while also focusing on assisting our associates, our guests and our owners,” a Marriott spokesperson said. “While the ultimate impact is difficult to predict at this time given the fluidity of the situation, we remain confident in our long-term prospects.”
The Wall Street Journal was first to report the news, which Marriott confirmed.
The company employs 130,000 people in the US and intends to rehire many of the furloughed employees once the virus is contained.
@NYGovCuomo
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FDR once said, "The news is going to get worse & worse before it gets better & better, and the American people deserve to have it straight from the shoulder.”
I’ll tell you the truth when it’s pretty and when it’s not pretty. That’s my job.