CNN: info released by Jiao Yahui, deputy director of the National Health Commissions State Health Administration.
The death rate from the Wuhan coronavirus across mainland China stands at 2.1%,
In Hubei province, the epicenter of the outbreak, the rate is 3.1%
Hubei province accounts for 97% of all deaths.
Of the 425 confirmed deaths across mainland China, 80% of the victims were over the age of 60, and 75% of victims had some form of underlying disease
Two-thirds of the confirmed deaths are male.
Jiao attributed the higher number of deaths in Hubei province to the large number of severe cases as well as the initial lack of hospital beds to treat patients.
The national average time needed for a patient to fully recover is nine days, according to Jiao. She added that in Hubei province the recovery time is higher at 20 days because there are more severe cases.
It looks like the death rate attributed to the new coronavirus is about 2-3%. In comparison, the death rate attributed to most yearly infleunza viruses is about 0.1-0.4% - itās difficult to find hard numbers. At any rate, it does appear that the new coronavirus is at least 10 times more deadly than the flu viruses that normally circulate this time of year.
The reason that so many people die of the flu in this country is that so many people get the flu in this country - not because the flu is inherently deadlier. About 8% of the U.S. population gets the flu every year, which corresponds to 25,000,000 people.
"Six new cases of coronavirus have been reported in Thailand, including four Thai nationals, the countryās health ministry has announced.
The four Thai people included a couple who had visited Japan and two drivers who had picked up Chinese passengers in Thailand, the ministry said." (Independent UK)
Itās hard to actually know what the death rate is if many people get mild symptoms and donāt seek treatment.
DH thought Iād gone extreme when he opened a package Iād ordered from amazon (he worries about NOTHING and thinks Iām psycho because I worry about a lot of things). It was a box of N95 masks.
But actually, I ordered them because we have started a remodel with a lot of demolition involved, and I could barely breathe in there one day and had to leave. It was made worse because I have been fighting a nasty respiratory virus. Luckily we donāt live there yet present, but I thought it prudent to get some masks so I donāt have to breathe in all that stuff.
In addition to smoking, I also wonder how the air pollution might affect the course of the disease. During some of the California wildfires, when our air quality was really poor, we were told going outside was the equivalent of smoking a pack of cigarettes a day, and the air in Wuhan is generally in the unhealthy range.
True but this is the same for all illnesses including the flu. Iāve had the flu multiple times over the years and have never reported it or seen a doctor. Same can be said for many, many people.
Just reporting what is out there for legitimate sources as that is what we have to go on.
Personally, I donāt think this virus is any deadlier than the worst flu strains circulating around. The main reason the WHO et al got alarmed is because this is a virus that crossed species and became transmittable between humans. Such events do not happen very often.
Speaking of flu deaths, imagine what the rate would be without vaccination (yes, a vaccine that misses some strains rarely misses all strains). Judging by the recent uptick in the reported flu cases, either it is shaping up to be a very bad flu season or more folks with flu symptoms got spooked by the coronavirus and went to get tested.
One thing that seems strange to me is the stats. The JHU site that is tracking the disease by region is currently at 20, 074 cases and has about .02 mortality rate for the last 3-4 day. Yet, when the site first came online cases were doubling very,very, very quickly. (Say every 12 hours or so). So I have to ask, if many are staying home sick then why is the death rate pretty steady. I believe there are hundreds of thousands of cases which are not reported or could they have brought it under control with the quarantine? Doubtful.
Also, I donāt see why anyone is correlating this to the flu. The flu is a known quantity and usually has a death rate about .01% (thatās mathematically far off from .02%. Plus the flu usually has variations (like any virus) but seems highly manageable. Conflating how many people die from the flu with the coronavirus which is totally new and not understood seems illogical to me.
In addition, no one has mentioned how viruses change. Round one of the Spanish flu had a low mortality rate vs. round 2 in 1918. Maybe that is why the Corona Virus it is a true global health emergency. And people keep citing a .02 death rate for the Spanish flu. From what I have read, 2% of people worldwide died! Thatās because not all people got the flu. And 10-20% of people who got the flu in round 2 in the USA died. Very, very different. People were impacted for years especially in places that were hit hard.
I donāt think the picture is very clear. But I honestly care much less about the flu or SARS and more about getting a clear picture of what the actual coronavirus is, how it spreads ( all cases) and the actual death rate. I think weāll know more in a week or two.
CBS LA is reporting that a minor who was among those quarantined at March AFB has been taken to a hospital with a fever. (May not be coronavirus, butā¦)
Please see my post #738 that references that they are seeing mutations (not surprisingly because as you say, viruses are known to change) with this virus already.
Diagnosing the flu isnāt very difficult especially if it is prevalent in oneās area. Perhaps sometimes it wasnāt, but I look for horses not zebras when all the symptoms say FLU. I doubt I NEVER had the flu in my lifetime.
Do you really think every case of the flu is confirmed in a doctorās office and therefore officially counted? If we are going to use that line of reasoning for this coronavirus, you must apply it to other things as well. For most people, the flu is an inconvenience and a nuisance but not life threatening and therefore tons of people donāt seek out medical care for it.
I listened to these two interviews with Laurie Garret and they were very informative. Back in the day, H bought one of her books āthe Coming Plagueā and loved it. Sheās recently written about Ebola. Sheās a Pulitzer Prize winning science writer, who was in China for the SARS outbreak.
The good news is - China has great infrastructure and is autocratic so they can lock down everything if need be.
The bad news is bigger - China spent the first weeks lying about the virus and arresting health care people who told the truth. They rely mainly on temperature checks, which are not so effective with this disease. China makes most of the worldās face masks, and many of the ones left being sold are not effective (theyāre just dust masks with a fake label). She is comparing this to HIV.
āHyundai Motor will suspend production in South Korea because the coronavirus outbreak has disrupted the supply of parts, it said, becoming the first major carmaker to do so outside of China.ā