Coronavirus in the US

Parent Cafe
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The pictures of crowded beaches and partying is showing something that’s very localized and not what’s necessarily happening everywhere. In our area, the Sheriffs are definitely patrolling the beaches and nearby parks. Saturday evening, my family and I took a walk on one of our most famous beaches at sunset. Easy to stay more than 10’ away from strangers, but my family walked in a bunch because we live together. That’s what most other people were doing. There was one area where it looked like college aged people were setting up for a party - speakers, tables with drinks, etc. As the sun set and the party ramped up, the lifeguards and sheriffs patrols both went over to talk to the group.

Heck, last night we walked a local trail and bridge to see the sunset and we saw the sheriffs break up a large (12-14) group of Amish people who were gathered in the park at the base of the bridge.

People are out and about here - and again, if there’s room for plenty of distance and it’s outdoors where the UV helps with sterilization anyways there’s no reason for them not to be - but locally at least the sheriffs deputies are definitely on top of any groups gathering.

I hope they don’t close the beaches, parks or preserves or issue a mandatory shelter in place. Taking walks is one of the few things our family can do if we’re confined at home and it keeps us all sane.

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The South American nation of Uruguay has reported 50 cases of coronavirus, a disproportionately large amount for this small nation of under 3.5 million inhabitants. (Argentina, next door, population 45 million, has only 79 reported cases).

Doctors are talking of an “explosive growth” in numbers, say local press reports, after the first four cases were reported only last Friday.

About 20 of the cases have been traced back to a single socialite from the capital city of Montevideo who went to a 500-guest wedding the same night after she returned from Spain on 7 March.

The woman in question, Carmela Hontou, who has been diagnosed with the virus, has been giving interviews defending her assistance and adding that she also had lunch with her 84-year-old mother upon arrival and went to a lunch the next day “where there were also a lot of people.”

Asked by a reporter if she didn’t consider it unwise to mingle in large crowds, given her situation, Hontou answered: “That’s ridiculous, plus, do you know how many people came in that plane?”

Audio WhatsApp messages by friends of the woman and other wedding guests have circulated widely in Uruguay, expressing disbelief and anger at her attitude. The authorities have also intervened in the case of Hontou’s two sons, after security guards at her building reported to the authorities Tuesday that they have been allegedly visiting their mother and then going about their business as usual in Montevideo.

Uruguay is awaiting the delivery of 20 thousand test kits to deal with the situation, say press reports. Although some private clinics have kits, the government clinic that centralizes results is reportedly working with a five-day delay before confirming cases.

Progressive Uruguay, the only nation with legal marijuana in Latin America, and with legal abortion, apart from Cuba, has not yet imposed a nationwide quarantine, although the SMU Uruguayan doctor’s union has asked the government for this and other drastic measures to contain the spread.

Uruguay has meanwhile suspended classes for two weeks, closed shopping malls and ordered the suspension of flights from the US starting Wednesday and from Europe starting Friday. (Guardian)

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Latest NYS case breakdown:

NYC 1339 (+695)
Westchester 538 (+158)
Nassau 183 (+52)
Suffolk 116 (+32)
Albany 36 (+13)
Orange 32 (+17)
Rockland 30 (+8)
rest counties less than 25 cases

Total 2382 cases (+ 1,008)

NYS run 14,000 tests in the last 24 hours.

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In Belgium, small groceries stores only allow 1 or 2 persons going in at a time. In larger stores, they limit the number of people can be in at a time.

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@OneMoreToGo2021: No good options when a virus like this hits if you do not test extensively early on, shut down all schools early on, and slow the spread that way. Past that early stage, it’s like a cancer metastasizing. If you do nothing, cases double every few days, the healthcare system gets overwhelmed, people die with no access to care, and the economy still crashes because most people fear for their lives and won’t go out anyway. Granted, there would be a sharp rebound in the economy in that case as most people would have gotten it and the survivors carry on.

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They run 14,000 tests, 1008 came positive. That’s 7.2%
Unless 14,000 tests means 7,000 people, 2 tests each

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My bad. I thought 14,000 tests was the total # ran to date. Good ramp up then.
The number (7%) is consistent with what is seen here (WA).

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@OneMoreToGo2021: “We can slow transmission, but there is no way to stop it.”

Well, China and SKorea did with their measures. To a controllable rate.

But slowing it down is the point of flattening the curve. We only have so many medical personnel and equipment (frankly, it’s a disturbingly small number given the size of the population). The idea is that even if you have the same number of infections eventually, if you spread them out, more folks who could have been saved with medical intervention would have their lives saved.

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Part time, low income, and the youngest and olders workers are most economically vulnerable to the economic effects of COVID-19:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-workers-are-most-vulnerable-to-the-economic-costs-of-the-coronavirus/

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My bad. I thought 14,000 tests was the total # ran to date. Good ramp up then.
The number (7%) is consistent with what is seen here (WA).

[/quote]

Do they have results from all the tests they have run?

7731

And Russia is showing 147 cases, no deaths. I’d like to think that is accurate, but wonder if they are grossly underreporting.

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Of course, I understand the concept of “flattening the curve,” @PurpleTitan. The issue is the economic cost of doing so versus the benefit.

I was struck by the graphic someone posted on the different experiences of Philadelphia (no restrictions) versus Saint Louis (drastic restrictions) during the 1918 pandemic.

The Saint Louis death rate was half on a per capita basis, but the outbreak lasted for months. It looks like Philadelphia burned itself out within two weeks (basically).

The question no one is even asking now is whether it is better to sacrifice an economy in order to achieve even a halving of death rates for a vulnerable population (elderly, with co-morbidities) whose average life expectancy is low anyway.

It sounds macabre of course - and it is - but as I wrote somewhere above, a permanent destabilizing effect on the economy may well ultimately result in more premature deaths for the elderly and vulnerable than accepting the higher death rate short term. Without even considering cross-subsidization or private expenditures, governments spend about 40% of all health care expenditure in the United States on Medicare and Medicaid. https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/NationalHealthExpendData/NHE-Fact-Sheet

Add in private expenditures (both out of pocket and insured) and there is little doubt that more than 10% of GDP is being spent on the over-65 crowd. This group is going to be extremely vulnerable to economic shocks going forward, likely even more vulnerable than to corona.

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@OneMoreToGo2021 “The question no one is even asking is whether it is better to sacrifice an economy in order to achieve even a halving of death rates for a vulnerable population (elderly, with co-morbidities) whose average life expectancy is low anyway.”

It depends on what a society values. The reason we’re not asking it could be that they-were-gonna-die-anyway doesn’t make the ethical cut in our collective decision making.

7734

It’s not just elderly people who are affected. And the impact to our economy of hundreds of thousands of working age people being on ventilators for weeks…and surviving but still being bankrupted by losing their job or incurring enormous medical bills will be huge.

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There will not be hundreds of thousands of working age people on ventilators. There won’t even be hundreds of thousands of elderly on ventilators. After all, there are not even 50,000 ICU beds in the entire country. Come on, people…

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US Defense Secretary says military will provide up to 5 million masks for health care services
From CNN’s Betsy Klein

Defense Secretary Mark Esper said the Department of Defense will make available up to five million N95 masks and other personal protective equipment from US strategic reserves, he said, noting that “the first one million masks will be available immediately.”

He said they are also prepared to distribute “up to 2,000 operational deployable ventilators for use as needed” to the Department of Health and Human Services. Esper announced these steps on ventilators and masks on Tuesday.

He added: “We’ve certified our 16th lab to help with processing tests from across the country.” Yesterday, this number was 14.

Esper said the USS Mercy and Comfort Navy hospital ships are being prepared to deploy.

“We have also alerted a variety of field and expeditionary hospitals to be ready to deployed as needed, based on direction from the commander in chief,” he said.

“The US military remains ready and capable at defending the country and our interests abroad,” Esper said.

He said his department is “leaning forward” in its response, noting that the Department has issued international and domestic travel restrictions to all DOD personnel and families.

[ Sounds like a lot but really isn’t. ]

Trump says he doesn’t agree with his Treasury Secretary that US could reach 20% unemployment
From CNN’s Betsy Klein

President Trump said Wednesday he doesn’t agree with Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin’s comments to Republican senators that US unemployment could reach Great Depression levels of 20%.

“I don’t agree with that – that’s an absolute total worst case scenario,” he conceded.
But, he added, “We’re nowhere near it.”

Italian official warns “soon” they won’t be able to assist those who get sick
From CNN’s Sharon Braithwaite in London

Gov. Attilio Fontana of Lombardy, Italy, made another appeal to the people: “You must not go out, you have to stay at home.”

“Unfortunately the numbers of the contagion are not decreasing, they continue to be high. Soon we will not be able to give an answer to those who get sick,” the governor said.
Fontana then made a plea to Lombardy citizens.

“We are asking you to make a sacrifice in order to save lives. Every time you leave home it’s s a risk for you and others,” said Fontana, adding that if people continue not to comply with the restriction he will ask the government to implement “even stricter measures,” the governor said.

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“The question no one is even asking now is whether it is better to sacrifice an economy in order to achieve even a halving of death rates for a vulnerable population (elderly, with co-morbidities) whose average life expectancy is low anyway.”

Why on earth do some still think this is just about the elderly with co-morbidities? My youngest daughter has severe asthma – meaning she is at risk for severe complications if she is infected with a respiratory illness. She gets the flu shot every year so we feel better that she is less likely to progress to pneumonia if she happens to catch the flu in any given year, but there is no vaccine for covid19, so my anxiety level for her runs very high right now. I can’t even imagine what it must be like for those with children who are cancer survivors, or those with other conditions which make them even more vulnerable to serious/lethal complications if they are infected. Good grief, people, this is not just about the elderly. Wake up.

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US-Canada flight restrictions will take effect on March 21
From CNN’s Paula Newton

An airline industry source with knowledge of the directive being sent to air carriers told CNN that North American airlines will not be required to suspend all flights between the US and Canada. Some business, diplomatic, educational and family emergency travel will be allowed to continue.

The restrictions are meant to be applied to what the governments describe as “non-essential” travel, in particular leisure visits. In light of this, North American carriers will soon begin dramatically reducing their US-Canada flight schedules, the source said.

The new border restrictions for airlines are expected to be enforced by March 21 at midnight.

World Health Organization calls on countries to keep “isolating, testing"
From CNN Health’s Jacqueline Howard

The World Health Organization is continuing to call on countries to isolate, test and treat suspected cases of novel coronavirus as the pandemic sweeps the world.

“WHO continues to recommend that isolating, testing and treating every suspected case, and tracing every contact, must be the backbone of the response in every country,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a media briefing in Geneva on Wednesday.
Tedros added: “This is the best hope of preventing widespread community transmission. Many countries are listening to our call and finding solutions to increase their ability to implement the full package of measures that have turned the tide in several countries.”

White House recommends canceling non-essential elective surgery, including dental procedures
White House coronavirus task force member Seema Varna said at a news conference today that the Trump administration is recommending that patients cancel elective health procedures to help with health care capacity nationwide.

“We believe that these recommendations will help surgeons, patients, and hospitals prioritize what is essential, while leaving the ultimate decision in the hands of state and local health officials and those clinicians who have direct responsibility to their patients,” Varna said.
She continued: “We urge providers and clinicians and patients to seriously consider these recommendations. They will not only preserve equipment, but it also allows doctors and nurses to help those that are on the front lines, and it will protect patients from unnecessary exposure to the virus.” CNN

Pence announces regulation on doctors practicing across state lines
From CNN’s Betsy Klein

Vice President Mike Pence announced Wednesday that the Department of Health and Human Services is issuing a regulation to permit doctors to practice across state lines.

Pence also pleaded with hospitals and Americans to delay elective procedures as the outbreak spreads and hospitals face shortages of resources.

“With regard to medical personnel, at the President’s direction, HHS is issuing a regulation today that will allow all doctors and medical professionals to practice across state lines to meet the needs of hospitals that may arise in adjoining areas,” he said.
Pence added: “In addition to that, we are asking every American and our medical community leaders and hospitals to partner with us in delaying elective procedures across the country in our healthcare system to ensure that medical supplies and medical capacities go where they’re needed most.”

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Hence…flattening the curve. But if you think it’s better for all those people to just die in the near future, you can lead by example and encourage all your friends and family to get sick now and help the economy.

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It amazes me that people are against restrictions when they aren’t in the high risk category for death. Everything changes when you realize you’re the one with the bulls eye. It’s East to view “others” as expendable. Sad really.