Coronavirus in the US

[OneMoreToGo2021]

@PurpleTitan - I didn’t address your point about a certain economic hit because there are way too many unknowns. I do not think there is a chance that “tens of millions would get sick enough to be unable to work.” You have seen the study that estimates that perhaps as many as 86% of infected are wholly asymptomatic. Even assuming 50% of all 160 million US working persons catch the virus at once (before herd immunity comes into play) it is hard to imagine even a few million being so sick as to be unable to work, especially if that 86% number has even the slightest plausibility.

I do agree that fear could be a huge factor depressing economic activity. Of course we have that already.

[MomofJandL]

Everything I’ve heard about people who wanted to be tested but couldn’t get a test was that a primary criterion for testing was recent travel to a hot spot, or known contact with someone who tested positive.

With that selection criterion, most NBA players would be higher on the list for testing than most CC posters with fever and a cough. There are NBA players who have tested positive, and they all have had exposure to each other.

So there may be a reason besides “famous rich people.”

[Iglooo]

The Saint Louis death rate was half on a per capita basis, but the outbreak lasted for months. It looks like Philadelphia burned itself out within two weeks (basically).

@OneMoreToGo2021 Interesting point. Isn’t Netherland trying this? They are not locking down from what I read this morning. They are shooting for community immunization. We will find it out which is better.

[doschicos]

ITALY - 4207 new cases totaling 35,713 and 475 new deaths in Italy totaling 2,978.

Italy is on schedule to surpass China’s reported deaths by tomorrow.

1084 new recoveries were also reported today.

COVID-19 has infected 2,629 health workers, or 8.3% of the total (more than twice the percentage in China), as of yesterday March 17. In Bergamo (Lombardy region), 118 out of about 600 family doctors (20%) have been infected, and a 65-year-old doctor has died. Today, a 57-year-old doctor has died: he was the secretary of the Federation of General Practitioners of Lodi. A week ago, a 67-year-old family doctor, president of the Varese Medical Association, had died.

:heartbreak:

[romanigypsyeyes]

Co morbidity here. I’m chronically ill but my lifespan is still another 40-50 years or so. And I don’t plan on leaving my soon to be newborn without a mom.

So yeah my life isn’t expendable for the sake of “the economy” thanks.

[OneMoreToGo2021]

@Iglooo - “Interesting point. Isn’t Netherland trying this? [letting the virus go in order to build up herd immunity]”

Yes, I believe I read that. The UK originally took this approach, with the caveat that vulnerable elderly would be “distanced” so as to minimize their risk in the initial virus sweep. As you can see, though, from most comments, the desire to DO SOMETHING NOW is incredibly strong from the population, so I believe that the UK has reversed course.

[doschicos]

[quote=“amsunshine;c-22659186”

The investor warned that further delays to such a “Spring Break” hiatus would continue to have disastrous costs to human life and pressed Trump to “please send everyone home now.”

“No one defaults, no one forecloses. A 30-day rent, interest and tax holiday for all,” he added. “The shutdown is inevitable as it is already happening, but not in a controlled fashion which is extending the economic pain and amplifying the spread of the virus.” "

I also thought the video interview portion was interesting. He talked about how China, South Korea and Singapore were very disciplined in their approach to shutting everything down and it was successful.
[/quote]

Yes! Rip off the band-aid now. Just do it. Save certain areas of the country from becoming the next hot spot. The economic toll is already here. If I was a small business, I’d rather have a shorter window of impact then get back to business (China) than dragging it out for 6 months or more.

@Iglooo

The Saint Louis death rate was half on a per capita basis, but the outbreak lasted for months. It looks like Philadelphia burned itself out within two weeks (basically).

@OneMoreToGo2021 Interesting point. Isn’t Netherland trying this? They are not locking down from what I read this morning. They are shooting for community immunization. We will find it out which is better.

Despite the rhetoric, they have. Closed down schools and other stuff. I posted about it earlier.

[TatinG]

A columnist in the LA Times asked this today. “Should doctors over 65 go to work?”

Should health care providers who have underlying health conditions or who are pregnant go to work? Not just those over 65. They are also in a high risk group for bad outcomes should they catch the virus.

I have several relatives who are HCP and I am worried. My daughter is pregnant and is a resident physician. Is it really safe for her and the baby to be working in a hospital in this epidemic?

[HImom]

My relative is pregnant and working as a podiatrist in a hotspot— SF. Her H is a pathologist and continues to work in SF. We are all nervous for them.

[privatebanker]

Good news on the response behind the scenes and important cooperation. Although results matter. See Cuomo comments below.

I also am glad the administration is focused on health first and economy next with big plans. Markets and economies will return. Lives are being saved. If the market goes down during the press conference it probably means they are being very honest. They ink a stimulus bill and you’ll see a bounce. It will be volatile until we see some flattening. The testing is going to show huge spikes and people will assume that’s all brand new cases which isn’t the way to look at the early results.

NY Governor Andrew Cuomo:

“ he believed Trump was “100 percent sincere in saying that he wanted to work together, in partnership, in a spirit of cooperation,” and that his actions “evidence that.”

“His team has been on it. I know a team when they’re on it, and I know a team when they’re not on it. His team is on it, they’ve been responsive, late at night, early in the morning, and they’ve thus far been doing everything that they can do, and I want to say thank you, and I want to say that I appreciate it. They will have nothing but cooperation and partnership from the state of New York.

On the incredibly bad and misguided side of things.

Save the money for a few months please. People and low information citizens are incredibly scared. Elderly. Poor. Spend the money on psa ads and sponsored by the xyz pac. Goodwill.

“The Washington Post reported Tuesday a D super PAC plans to spend $5 million on digital advertising criticizing Trump for his response to the coronavirus — just “one of several groups that planned to devote resources to this type of messaging”

[maya54]

@sorghum

@thumper1

@Creekland

Here is an idea for your Med school lad. Many medical schools are canceling clerkships and removing students from them. I read an article (apologies for not being able to find it now) about one 3rd or 4th year who was setting up a child care service for health care workers whereby these students provide babysitting so folks working in health care can go to their jobs.

That seemed like a good idea. Sure, the parents could bring the virus home…but …it’s a thought.

@WayOutWestMom your thoughts?

I don’t think medical students at that stage of education would perceive that their best use is in babysitting.

My daughter has a double engineering degree in electrical and biomedical engineering. She loves kids and if she was in med school she’d happily babysit.

[Snowball_City]

Third death from the senior citizen apartments in New Orleans

https://www.wwltv.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/second-death-reported-out-of-new-orleans-nursing-home/289-fb634b24-b3a7-4d33-9d76-91c65a229bf4

CORONAVIRUS
98-year-old Lambeth House resident dies from COVID-19, 3rd death in retirement home
There are at least 12 positive cases of COVID-19 – the respiratory disease caused by the new coronavirus – among Lambeth patients.
Author: Sean Brennan / Eyewitess News
Published: 11:15 AM CDT March 17, 2020
Updated: 11:48 AM CDT March 18, 2020

NEW ORLEANS — A third resident of the Lambeth House retirement community in Uptown New Orleans has died from COVID-19, Louisiana health officials said Wednesday morning.

They were 98 years old.

There are now five deaths in the state from the novel coronavirus, all of which were New Orleans residents.

The Louisiana Department of Heath’s update comes the day after an 80-year-old Lambeth House resident, identified as 80-year-old James Carriere, was pronounced dead from the new virus.

Carriere, a former magistrate judge, was a volunteer professor and taught federal criminal law and some trial advocacy seminars for the past 10 years at Loyola University.

On Monday, it was announced an 84-year-old resident from the home had passed away, the first victim in Louisiana over the age of 80.

The reported cases out of Lambeth House continue to rise, first with an 84-year-old victim hospitalized on March 6, then jumping to eight cases last week and now, per governor Edwards on Monday, 12 people infected.

According to a Lambeth House spokesperson, on-site testing for the virus has begun. Those tests are in the hands of the Louisiana Department of Health.

[BunsenBurner]

Looks like the Dutch are doing a “controlled burn.”

Some 50% to 60% of the 17.4 million people in the Netherlands would have to catch coronavirus to reach a level of group immunity, Jaap van Dissel, head of the public health institute RIVM, told television programme Nieuwsuuer on Monday evening. ‘We know this because of the characteristics of the way the disease is spreading,’ Van Dissel told the programme. ‘We want the virus to circulate among people who will have little problem with it, while at the same time, protecting vulnerable groups as much as possible. If a big enough group have had the virus, that will protect the vulnerable,’ Van Dissel said. This, Van Dissel said, is why the government has opted for a programme of ‘maximum control’, as outlined by prime minister Mark Rutte in his speech to the national earlier in the evening.

Read more at DutchNews.nl:

https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/03/total-lockdown-would-allow-coronavirus-to-bounce-back-dutch-expert/

This is the nation that took MRSA very seriously BTW and was able to put a lid on hospital-acquired infections.

[Iglooo]

Hope they succeed. That will give one more tool to deal with the virus.

[Mom2aphysicsgeek]

@doschicos

ITALY - 4207 new cases totaling 35,713 and 475 new deaths in Italy totaling 2,978.

Italy is on schedule to surpass China’s reported deaths by tomorrow.

1084 new recoveries were also reported today.

COVID-19 has infected 2,629 health workers, or 8.3% of the total (more than twice the percentage in China), as of yesterday March 17. In Bergamo (Lombardy region), 118 out of about 600 family doctors (20%) have been infected, and a 65-year-old doctor has died. Today, a 57-year-old doctor has died: he was the secretary of the Federation of General Practitioners of Lodi. A week ago, a 67-year-old family doctor, president of the Varese Medical Association, had died.

:heartbreak:

Does anyone really accept that a country the size of Italy already has approx 50% of total cases of China? That the rest of the world’s few cases (relatively speaking) surpass China’s total?

I think China’s numbers and data are bogus.

[OneMoreToGo2021]

^ I am very skeptical that China was able to lockdown the locus of the epidemic so quickly as to ensure that only like 3000 people died in a country of 1.4 billion.

[mathKids]

@OneMoreToGo2021

The question no one is even asking now is whether it is better to sacrifice an economy in order to achieve even a halving of death rates for a vulnerable population (elderly, with co-morbidities) whose average life expectancy is low anyway.

NYS is certainly asking that one. I posted this earlier

Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, appearing on The Times’s podcast “The Daily” this morning, emphasized that his priority remained halting the spread of coronavirus — and not the economic fallout from mandatory closings and restrictions that have been put in place.

THE DAILY Governor Cuomo appears on “The Daily.”
“You are past the time of monetizing these decisions,” he said.

“You are at a point of deciding: how many people are going to live, how many people are going to die?”

And for the record, he is saving the people. Go and listen to his latest press conference (can be found on his twitter).

[1NJParent]

From CNN:

When asked about President Trump’s continued use of the term “Chinese virus” when referring to the novel coronavirus, Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of the World Health Organization health emergencies programme, said WHO has been clear since the beginning of the outbreak, “Viruses know no borders and they don’t care your ethnicity or the color of your skin or how much money you have in the bank.”

Trump’s latest use of the phrase happened Wednesday during a White House press briefing on the coronavirus.

“It’s really important that we be careful in the language we use,” Ryan said. “There are many different origins … the pandemic of influenza in 2009 [the H1N1 or swine flu] originated in North America and we don’t call it the ‘North American flu,’ so it’s very important that we have the same approach when it comes to other viruses.”

[Iglooo]

I think China’s numbers and data are bogus.

Of course, it is. Just doing simple arithmetic. Their first reported case was early December. They didn’t start taking measures until mid to late January. The virus had a free run for 40-50 days. We now know the infection doubles every 2-3 days. If it doubles every three days, by mid January, it would be about 30,000 times of the cases they had in early December. If they had only 2-3 case in early December, their number, 80,000, would be roughly correct. However, if it was reported to the world in December, it must have been more wide spread than a few. It would be safe to say the tally probably runs in the 100’s of thousands.

[romanigypsyeyes]

Michigan just reported first death. Man in his 50s in my county. No further details