Coronavirus in the US

Parent Cafe
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Ex-Trump advisor Gary Cohn warns the US will have ‘massive unemployment very, very quickly’

The U.S. unemployment rate will rise swiftly and dramatically as the coronavirus brings the American economy to a stop, former top White House economic advisor Gary Cohn told CNBC. “I believe that we are going to have massive unemployment very, very quickly,” Cohn said on “Squawk Box.”

Cohn’s comments came shortly after the Labor Department said jobless claims rose to 281,000 last week, an increase of 70,000 from the week prior.

The former Goldman Sachs president is not alone in forecasting a continued jump in unemployment. Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Ian Shepherdson earlier told CNBC he thought next Thursday’s jobless claims could soar to around two million.

Bank of America says the recession is already here: ‘Jobs will be lost, wealth will be destroyed’

Bank of America warned investors that a coronavirus-induced recession is no longer avoidable — it’s already here.

“We are officially declaring that the economy has fallen into a recession … joining the rest of the world, and it is a deep plunge,” Bank of America U.S. economist Michelle Meyer wrote in a note. “Jobs will be lost, wealth will be destroyed and confidence depressed.”

The firm expects the economy to “collapse” in the second quarter, shrinking by 12%. GDP for the full year will contract by 0.8%, it said.

Toyota extends shutdown of North American plants
Toyota said it will extend a planned two-day shutdown of all North American plants until April. On Wednesday, the automaker said it planned to close facilities on March 23 and 24. The automaker will now reopen keep plants shuttered until April 6. Toyota has approximately 32,000 manufacturing employees in North America, including 23,000 in the U.S., a company spokesperson said.

Israelis ordered to stay at home
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the government will issue orders on Thursday forcing Israelis to stay at home to halt the spread of the coronavirus crisis.

“Under these orders, you, Israel’s citizens, are required to stay at home. It is no longer a request, it is not a recommendation, it is an obligatory directive that will be enforced by enforcement authorities,” Netanyahu said, adding that the orders will go into effect later in the day, for a week.

Certain workers would be exempt from the measures, Netanyahu said in the televised address, and Israelis would still be allowed to shop for food and medicine.

CNBC

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Could be, but the recent tax bill doesn’t consider any dependent who turns 17 in the most recent tax year to be a “kid” for child tax credit purposes.

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@Tigerle

Sure. Tell that to my close US citizen friend who lives in Spain, is married to a Spanish citizen (dual with US), with two children (both of whom are dual Spanish-US), and runs a small business. He has been unsuccessfully trying to obtain coverage for about 8 months now. Pretty savvy guy, of course the family has native language facility, and have had access to legal counsel as well. Oh, and the wife is also employed, but her position is being terminated due to the corona slowdown. It is not possible for a US spouse to obtain Spanish residency without the Spanish citizen being able to show that she (in this case) can support the spouse. US citizen spouse cannot obtain work without a residency permit.

Interestingly, the family relocated to Spain about a year ago in the belief that better health care would be available for one of their kids, who has some specialized needs that were difficult to address under the byzantine US system. They are discovering that Spain’s system is far worse (and of course the kid has full benefits).

They also report that the Spanish public secondary school system in Madrid is a “complete joke” compared with the public education that the kids had received in the United States. Bullying, backward instruction, incompetent teachers, and incredible racial tension with the many recent middle eastern arrivals who are emphatically not being welcomed in a country which had formerly had a fairly unified culture. Same reports by the way with respect to racial tension from family members of mine in Italy. Europe tends to be fetishized on here often. The reality is far from the picture.

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That version has been discredited. The most recent and authoritative version was published on March 5 in New England Journal of Medicine:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468

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Pentagon not being asked to arrange flights for stranded Americans despite Trump claim
From CNN’s Barbara Starr

The Pentagon has not received a request from the State Department at this point to operate flights that would be used to fly Americans currently stranded overseas back to the United States, two defense officials tell CNN.

President Trump indicated on Thursday that such planning was already in place for a group of Americans in Peru who are unable to arrange flights home amid the coronavirus pandemic.

“We’re trying to get them out. And, you know, they got caught. They were late with their flights. We gave them a period of time. They didn’t make it, but we’re looking to get them out with military, probably through the military,” Trump said during a news conference Thursday at the White House.

Top military health official says military labs have not been asked to test civilians
From CNN’s Ryan Browne

Days after Secretary of Defense Mark Esper announced that the Defense Department would use its labs to help conduct coronavirus testing for civilians, a top military medical official said that the military had not yet been asked to do that.

”The department has made our 14 certified coronavirus testing labs available to test non-DOD personnel as well, and we will soon offer two additional labs for that purpose. We hope this will provide excess capacity to the civilian population,” Esper said Tuesday.

Esper repeated this at the White House press conference on Wednesday.

But on Thursday, Army Lt. Gen. Ronald Place, the director of the Defense Health Agency, said “at this time we are only testing DOD beneficiaries…at present we have not been asked to add our laboratories to the myriad labs across the country that have that capability.”

Place added “we are far from being overwhelmed in our laboratories and have the capability to do way more than that.”

Some context: Earlier Thursday, the Pentagon said the Defense Department “currently has 15 labs with 40 test kits available” with a daily capacity of 9,096 tests/day.

It said that 1,574 patients had been tested and that “an additional lab is being prepared at Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Services in Thailand."

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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-one-generation-taking-the-coronavirus-less-seriously-than-others-not-really/ describes polls about whether people are doing various social distancing measures.

Although the article is mainly about the difference between generations (not that much), only about half to three quarters of people polled are doing the asked-about social distancing measures.

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State Department issues worldwide “Do Not Travel” advisory
From CNN’s Jennifer Hansler

The US State Department on Thursday issued a worldwide Level 4: Do Not Travel Advisory due the coronavirus pandemic.

“The Department of State advises US citizens to avoid all international travel due to the global impact of COVID-19,” the updated advisory said. “In countries where commercial departure options remain available, US citizens who live in the United States should arrange for immediate return to the United States, unless they are prepared to remain abroad for an indefinite period."
The advisory added: "US citizens who live abroad should avoid all international travel. Many countries are experiencing COVID-19 outbreaks and implementing travel restrictions and mandatory quarantines, closing borders, and prohibiting non-citizens from entry with little advance notice.”

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And again, therein lies the problem. Too many people “know” better than the experts. They can look at facts of what is happening and dismiss them because they feel it won’t hurt them or their loved ones. Other people don’t matter at all. It’s all about “me.” (And this isn’t just about the author, but all of those they report about in all regions. I suspect the reasoning is quite similar - birds of a feather and all.)

Meanwhile, my BIL is taking my FIL (91 with significant health issues) to his vacation cottage to hole up. He’d rather stay in his house, but there’s too many self centered folks who don’t care about others around there - too many cases showing up. We’re hoping that more isolation will help him. I feel for those who don’t have places they can go and hide.

We also now have a positive case within miles of my house. It didn’t get there from folks staying isolated, but then again, they thought the risk was acceptable for them so that makes it ok. It’s sad.

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Nurse practitioners group says it “urgently” needs protective gear
From CNN’s Ross Levitt

An association representing 290,000 US nurse practitioners says it, and other healthcare providers, “urgently need personal protective equipment” and are asking the Trump administration “to support this priority to the fullest extent of its authority.”

The American Association of Nurse Practitioners are also asking federal and local governments to lift regulations that prevent nurse practitioners from certain functions, the group said in a statement.

Trump crossed out the word “corona” and replaced it with “Chinese” in his briefing notes, photo shows

A photograph of President Trump’s notes from Thursday’s news briefing on coronavirus at the White House shows the word “corona” was crossed out in black ink and replaced with “Chinese.” [go online to see the photo]

Trump opened the briefing and referred to COVID-19 as “the Chinese Virus." Trump was initially very complimentary of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s handling of the outbreak, but in recent days he has taken to calling COVID-19 the “Chinese virus.”

After consulting with medical experts, and receiving guidance from the World Health Organization, CNN has determined that that name is both inaccurate and is considered stigmatizing.

Trump has claimed that he is using the term because China tried to blame the virus on US soldiers. He has denied that it was a racist term to use.

Some background: CNN previously reported that a prominent Chinese official has promoted a conspiracy theory that the US military could have brought the novel coronavirus to China — and it did not originate in the Chinese city of Wuhan.

Parts of Chinese social media, and even the country’s government, appear to have launched a concerted campaign to question the origin of the novel coronavirus, which has infected more than 170,000 people globally as of Tuesday midday, according to CNN’s case tracker.

The first reported cases of the virus were in Wuhan, and scenes from the city on lockdown shocked the world. The lockdown gave an early indication for how seriously global authorities would need to combat the fast-spreading virus.

“Viruses know no borders and they don’t care about your ethnicity or the color of your skin or how much money you have in the bank,” said Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of the World Health Organization health emergencies program. “It’s really important that we be careful in the language we use.” (CNN)

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Donald Trump sowed fresh confusion about the US government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic by claiming that a therapeutic drug will be available “almost immediately” – only to be contradicted by officials.

In a rambling performance at Thursday’s White House press conference, the president asserted that chloroquine, used to combat malaria, had been approved and would be made available by prescription.

"They’re doing great with the vaccines but there’s still a long process, but the therapies are something we can move on much faster potentially. And the treatments that will be able to reduce the severity or duration of the symptoms – make people better.

Chloroquine, or hydroxychloroquine, this is a common malaria drug. It’s also a drug used for strong arthritis … It’s been around for a long time, so we know if things don’t go as planned it’s not going to kill anybody … It’s shown very, very encouraging early results, and we’re going to be able to make that drug available almost immediately."

But minutes later, Stephen Hahn, the commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, cautioned that in fact chloroquine has not been approved for use against the coronavirus and must still be tested for its effectiveness and safety.

ABC News
:heavy_check_mark:
@ABC
Pres. Trump touts chloroquine, an old malaria drug, that doctors say may help treat novel coronavirus, claims it will be available “almost immediately.”

Read more about chloroquine: https://abcn.ws/2WtkxC6

Guardian

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It’s really not any different than how China or other countries/people groups/races are demonized.

I tell my classes that if they can truly travel the world - beyond resorts, etc - they will find that there are good/bad/ugly people all over - in all races, genders, and countries. There are also good and bad aspects to every system (health, gov’t, etc). Perfection - and horror - really don’t exist across countries. They can be there in small fringe groups like the KKK or ISIS (horror for those) or MSF (for a good example - Doctors Without Borders for those who don’t recognize MSF), but it’s never country or race wide.

Humans like to group everything into “good” or “bad.” It gives us some sort of “sense” about the world. The real world doesn’t work that way. Humans are humans around the planet. Life tends to work the best when people recognize that and can honestly assess pros and cons without labels. It works even better when people can pitch in and help those who fall through the gaps on the “cons” of a system. Unfortunately, as a species, way too many only care about themselves or those they personally interact with (and like). Nameless folks out there, to them, are meaningless and it’s easy to demonize (or sometimes glorify) them.

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Just to clarify, even though hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine are not approved to treat covid-19, physicians may use these drugs to treat covid-19 (and they are) even in the absence of clinical trials because these drugs are currently available on the market. Once a drug is on the market, physicians can use it to treat any disease (of course they are generally conservative, and payer issues may arise when using a drug ‘off-label’).

Trials are still a good idea to help physicians understand dosing and regimen. China and South Korea have published some treatment results with chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine.

Multiple trials using multiple drugs by multiple entities are starting up, including ones using chloroquine. Here are plans by WHO: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/who-to-launch-multinational-trial-to-jumpstart-search-for-coronavirus-drugs/

Bayer donated chloroquine tablets yesterday, for physicians to use now to treat covid-19 patients: https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/bayer-preps-u-s-donation-malaria-med-chloroquine-to-help-covid-19-fight-report

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Again, therein is the problem. Experts can speak, explain, and show facts, etc, but too many people simply look at it and yawn - esp once they assume they aren’t in the risk group (or don’t care if they are). In movies the hero usually doesn’t die and often doesn’t follow the rules because they are “smarter” than the average bear. Humans usually envision themselves as the hero, not an “extra.” It’s human nature.

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Seems okay, I guess. YMMV, though. I heard lots of French being spoken, and D seems happy with it (she who does not like having her time wasted).

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Andrew Cuomo
@NYGovCuomo
·
1h
Don’t be reckless with your life — and especially don’t be reckless with other people’s lives.

StayAtHome #FlattenTheCurve

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Iranian President Hassan Rouhani ordered the closing all shopping malls and markets, except for essential centers such as pharmacies and grocery stores for the next 15 days, starting Friday, the first day of the Iranian New Year.

He also assigned the interior minister and governors of each province to evaluate crowded areas in key provinces.

The Iranian health ministry announced Thursday that every 10 minutes one Iranian dies from coronavirus and every hour 50 Iranians are going to be infected by the virus.

At least 1,284 people have died from coronavirus, according to the health ministry. At least 18,407 cases of coronavirus have been reported in the country. (CNN)

[ I’m really surprised they haven’t done this yet. ]

Massachusetts now has more than 300 cases

Massachusetts added 72 positive coronavirus cases, bringing the state total to 328, according to the state’s website.

Forty-three people remain hospitalized, and 3,132 people have been tested in the state, according to the website.

Cases related to Biogen conference attendees and household contacts remain at 97.

Verizon CEO says the US network can handle coronavirus-related web traffic
From CNN Business’ Clare Duffy

In a matter of days, mass numbers of workers, students and businesses have increased their use of the internet to work, communicate and stay entertained as coronavirus spreads. Netflix said Thursday it will reduce streaming quality in Europe to keep the internet from collapsing under the strain of unprecedented usage.

But Verizon CEO Hans Vestberg said he’s not concerned about the US network’s ability to handle the traffic.

“So far (we’re seeing) no congestion in the network, we can handle that, we have built a very robust network," Vestberg told CNN’s Richard Quest Thursday.

The company has noted a shift in the types of applications relying on the network: gaming is up 75% from the prior week, web traffic is up 20%, VPN usage is up 30% and streaming is up 10%.

In less than one week, 100,000 of Verizon’s 135,000 global employees have shifted to remote working arrangements, but Vestberg said the company remains focused on network up-keep.

“We still have field engineers in the market keeping the network up … We need to keep these networks up because they are so important in this critical moment and this crisis right now,” he said.

Three more people have died in Illinois from coronavirus

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker announced three additional deaths during a news conference Thursday afternoon.

“We offer them our collective strength at this time. May their memories be for a blessing,” Pritzer said, addressing the families of the victims.
The addition of these three deaths brings the Illinois state death total to four, according to CNN’s counting.

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Below I link a very good interview with Helen Branswell, a reporter on the infectious diseases beat. She picked up on the coronavirus on New Year’s Eve, and has been publishing articles about it in STAT for a couple of months now, so she has been following this all along, and she already had a good knowledge about various aspects of health care.

For example, she published an article on January 27, entitled Experts Warn of Possible Sustained Global Spread of New Coronavirus. (Coronavirus may have “snuck up” on certain people and the organizations they head, but experts knew about it all along.)

Anyway, in the interview linked below she warns that we’re in this for the long haul.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/coronavirus-testing-vaccines-and-twitter-■■■■■■.html

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This is a worldwide problem, not just a US problem. But it appears that chloroquine has been known for some time as a possible treatment or even prevention for viral diseases, but clinical trials haven’t been done.

Clinical trials are time consuming and expensive and they are usually funded by private drug companies only when there is a potential for a patented drug to deliver enough revenue to the company to pay for the trial and deliver a profit.

What other drugs are out there that are off-patent and potentially effective against known or future diseases? For people that don’t like drug companies making large profits, this kind of research would be a terrific way to direct government funding. Even for those of us that think big Pharm profits are pretty wonderful because they incentivize innovation, this is a good use of government money. Doesn’t even have to be US government, any country could have been researching this for years it seems. (not for this specific novel coronavirus, but for like diseases so that we would all have seen this as a likely treatment right away.)

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No, average Americans don’t need a test if they don’t have symptoms. Only important asymptomatic people like politicians and basketball players need a test.

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The link doesn’t appear to be good.