Coronavirus in the US

[privatebanker]

Unfortunately 209,000 Allied soldiers were seriously and many critically wounded - gunshot wounds, shrapnel, burns, amputations in the first few weeks around D Day. No hospitals really available and people shooting at them and limited supplies and medicine is an under statement.

We have to be able to manage this especially with the lock downs and social distancing taking hold.

We have experience with mash units and ramping up production. I am very hopeful in the shared ingenuity of our fellow Americans and others.

[rosered55]

Valid point, @OneMoreToGo2021. I recommend that you and people who share your opinion just give money directly to service workers. Fundraising has been started in some cities for restaurant and bar workers who now are unemployed. I contributed to one such fund for service workers in NYC. I and my ex are helping our older child, whose workplace (a bar) has shut down, but our child knows many people who are without a parental or other safety net.

[socaldad2002]

@1NJParent

^^It may sound like an irony. The only place right now that has the capacity to produce in an amount that can potentially satisfy our need is China…

Earlier it was argued that we as a nation need to be independent and have most of the manufacturing / production done in the U.S. but I would argue the opposite. China has done a good job of isolating their infected people and mitigating the spread of this virus within their nation and can now go back to manufacturing the supplies that the US and other nations will need as our people get sick and/or are isolated (lock downed) for months.

The bottomline is that it’s a global economy and all nations can help in providing essential goods for the populace, especially in times of crisis.

[OneMoreToGo2021]

Yes, @rosered55, we do support certain service people directly. In my extended family, we have a number of them. We generally do not contribute to organized funds, however. I have seen too much abuse in my life to ever do that again. Obviously, ymmv, and I respect any choice anyone makes with regard to giving so long as it is informed. I am a very big believer in private charity. Governmental safety nets - not so much.

[cptofthehouse]

@amsunshine

A little info about student loans:

U.S. Department of Education

Thank you, for this info and link. Anyone know anything about the $10k loan forgiveness that has been floating around

[greenwitch]

This article is terrifying (from a respiratory therapist in New Orleans).

https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/article_701fcccc-6b7f-11ea-a78e-4b0eb098d207.html

I spoke to a respiratory therapist there, whose job is to ensure that patients are breathing well. He works in a medium-sized city hospital’s intensive care unit. (We are withholding his name and employer, as he fears retaliation.) Before the virus came to New Orleans, his days were pretty relaxed, nebulizing patients with asthma, adjusting oxygen tubes that run through the nose or, in the most severe cases, setting up and managing ventilators. His patients were usually older, with chronic health conditions and bad lungs.

Since last week, he’s been running ventilators for the sickest COVID-19 patients. Many are relatively young, in their 40s and 50s, and have minimal, if any, preexisting conditions in their charts. He is overwhelmed, stunned by the manifestation of the infection, both its speed and intensity. The ICU where he works has essentially become a coronavirus unit. He estimates that his hospital has admitted dozens of confirmed or presumptive coronavirus patients. About a third have ended up on ventilators.

His hospital had not prepared for this volume before the virus first appeared. One physician had tried to raise alarms, asking about negative pressure rooms and ventilators. Most staff concluded that he was overreacting. “They thought the media was overhyping it,” the respiratory therapist told me. “In retrospect, he was right to be concerned.”…

…“I have patients in their early 40s and, yeah, I was kind of shocked. I’m seeing people who look relatively healthy with a minimal health history, and they are completely wiped out, like they’ve been hit by a truck. This is knocking out what should be perfectly fit, healthy people. Patients will be on minimal support, on a little bit of oxygen, and then all of a sudden, they go into complete respiratory arrest, shut down and can’t breathe at all.”

They suddenly become unresponsive or go into respiratory failure.

“We have an observation unit in the hospital, and we have been admitting patients that had tested positive or are presumptive positive — these are patients that had been in contact with people who were positive. We go and check vitals on patients every four hours, and some are on a continuous cardiac monitor, so we see that their heart rate has a sudden increase or decrease, or someone goes in and sees that the patient is struggling to breathe or is unresponsive. That seems to be what happens to a lot of these patients: They suddenly become unresponsive or go into respiratory failure.”

The lung is filled with so much fluid, displacing where the air would normally be…

…“With our coronavirus patients, once they’re on ventilators, most need about the highest settings that we can do. About 90% oxygen, and 16 of PEEP, positive end-expiratory pressure, which keeps the lung inflated. This is nearly as high as I’ve ever seen. The level we’re at means we are running out of options.

“In my experience, this severity of ARDS is usually more typical of someone who has a near drowning experience — they have a bunch of dirty water in their lungs — or people who inhale caustic gas. Especially for it to have such an acute onset like that. I’ve never seen a microorganism or an infectious process cause such acute damage to the lungs so rapidly. That was what really shocked me.”…

[yucca10]

“That forgotten feeling when government sometimes asks scientists for advise… We made a strong case, governor listened and issued “shelter in place” order today before things got completely out of control.”

This is from the FB feed of Sergei Maslov, one of the authors of the study below. They used mathematical modeling to estimate if flattening the curve is possible in Illinois.

http://guava.physics.uiuc.edu/~nigel/REPRINTS/2020/v3.4%20ICU%20estimates%20for%20Chicago%203-18-2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1jSJakiBU5n89pTBerjunJPZJ0DsjwAUH_CpKvmLKPs8B-cPkkfP1zGlA

[toledo]

One of our friends is on the board for a company that makes respirators. He said they normally make 3,500/yearly, but have ramped up to 5,000/quarter. While encouraging, is 20.000 enough for even one state?

[Mwfan1921]

@yucca10

“That forgotten feeling when government sometimes asks scientists for advise… We made a strong case, governor listened and issued “shelter in place” order today before things got completely out of control.”

This is from the FB feed of Sergei Maslov, one of the authors of the study below. They used mathematical modeling to estimate if flattening the curve is possible in Illinois.

http://guava.physics.uiuc.edu/~nigel/REPRINTS/2020/v3.4%20ICU%20estimates%20for%20Chicago%203-18-2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1jSJakiBU5n89pTBerjunJPZJ0DsjwAUH_CpKvmLKPs8B-cPkkfP1zGlA

Wow. That’s a dramatic difference (I live in Illinois). Glad we are going to shelter in place later today.

[Iglooo]

This uncanny fit will doubtlessly encourage conspiracy theorists: What are the odds that a random bat virus had exactly the right combination of traits to effectively infect human cells from the get-go, and then jump into an unsuspecting person? “Very low,” Andersen says, “but there are millions or billions of these viruses out there. These viruses are so prevalent that things that are really unlikely to happen sometimes do.”

This is interesting. One could also ask, why now? If the virus is so well suited to human any did it wait so long? Chinese have been eating these things forever. It’s nothing new. Why didn’t it jump earlier, as in ancient times? What changed to make the jump now?

[doschicos]

[quote=“privatebanker, post:8746, topic:2080517”]

Google launches site partnering with US Government

Fox Business. Today.

“The site (covid-19 - Google Search), which consists of resources and links focused on the potentially deadly respiratory illness COVID-19, will be available in more languages and countries in coming days,

Google Chief Executive Sundar Pichai said in a blog post last Sunday that the search giant was partnering with the U.S. government to create a website by March 16.

However, the launch was delayed as local and national guidance changed significantly from Sunday to Monday and the company had said it would roll out the website later in the week.“
[/quote}

Visited yesterday. Not much there. Not what was promised. Nothing to do with testing.

@TatinG

I think a national lockdown may be coming although it doesn’t seem to be doing much to flatten the curve in Italy or Spain. Even South Korea is now seeing more cases and we thought they had it more or less under control.

It takes time. Hasn’t been 2 weeks yet. It took time inChina as well. However, other countries aren’t enforcing as well as China did.

[1NJParent]

Famed virologist David Ho on COVID-19:

Let me just give you a picture of what I see here in New York. About two weeks ago, we had our initial case, and now in New York City newly diagnosed confirmed cases are tripling every two days. In our New York Presbyterian Hospital, approximately 25 percent of the swab samples that are submitted for testing are positive. In the suburban communities outside of New York, approximately 10 percent of the swabs submitted are positive. So, the virus is everywhere. And in New York, we know that we are in the exponential growth phase of the epidemic.

Looking back at what has transpired throughout the world, we saw the first wave hit China; the second wave hit South Korea, Italy, and Iran; and then, trailed by only about a week or so, France, Germany, Spain, and the U.S. We all know that China went through a period of great devastation. It has over 80,000 cases. Italy is rapidly catching up, with over 31,000 cases. We suspect that in the U.S. this will rapidly sweep from the coastal regions and it will hit middle America. It is already there, but we will see exponential growth very, very soon. Then of course we are all worried about what would happen when this epidemic strikes places like Africa and India where the health care system is less developed.
…
What is disturbing is that virus shedding, as detected in the mouth or nose, is very, very common and could be there prior to onset of symptoms. That’s why transmission could occur from asymptomatic individuals. And virus shedding could continue for days up to three weeks after a person recovers. That is extremely worrisome for the spread of this virus. Furthermore, the stability of this virus is worrisome as well. If you put it in aerosol form and keep it in the air, the half-life is several hours; if you drop it on surfaces of copper or cardboard, it could survive about a day. But if it’s on steel or plastic surfaces, you could still detect infectious virus after 72 hours, although the infectivity decreases with time.
…
I personally believe we will blunt this epidemic, but I think we wasted a good four to six weeks largely because of lack of testing and lack of a certain preparedness. But I think we could still make a difference and bring it under control with very harsh measures.

https://www.caltech.edu/about/news/tip-iceberg-virologist-david-ho-bs-74-speaks-about-covid-19

[doschicos]

Miami-Dade County mayor closes hotels except for essential personnel
From CNN’s Hollie Silverman

Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez issued an emergency order Saturday closing all hotels, motels and other lodging due to coronavirus.

Exceptions are available for those housing essential personnel and those who have been displaced due to the virus, a press release from the mayor said.

All short-term vacation rentals must end by March 23 until further notice, the release said.

Gimenez also included an order for boats to stop “rafting up” for parties at sea or in Biscayne Bay.

Stimulus package could top $2 trillion as negotiators look to clear final major hurdles
From CNN’s Phil Mattingly

US negotiators entered a crucial day in the effort to deploy more than $1 trillion in emergency stimulus to a staggering economy, with a growing consensus on a final agreement, but a handful of significant hang-ups still need to be resolved.

Bipartisan groups of senators worked late into Friday night with top officials from President Trump’s administration to lock in a final agreement — an agreement that people directly involved in the negotiations tell CNN could top a cost of $1.5 trillion — before falling short of a midnight deadline imposed by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Larry Kudlow, a top economic adviser to Trump, went even further on the overall scope the package Saturday, telling reporters it could top $2 trillion.

“The package is coming in about 10% of GDP, it’s a very large package,” Kudlow, the director of the National Economic Council, said. Ten percent of gross domestic product is roughly $2 trillion.

The expanding price tag of the package was matched only the expanding crisis it is being drafted to try and blunt. The negotiations are expected to continue toward a final agreement through the day, with both sides acknowledging failure at this point isn’t an option.

[amsunshine]

This is just an FYI for those of you interested in reading about the various immune-supporting, over the counter items that many are discussing with relation to covid19. My aunt recently posted on her instagram, recommending an elderberry product “still available on Amazon”. I’ve read conflicting things about elderberry with relation to covid19, and saw others post replies indicating same. She responded that she was following the advice of a well-respected doctor affiliated with her employer. Apparently, the experts disagree about these things, but here is something recent from the University of Arizona, College of Medicine:

https://integrativemedicine.arizona.edu/file/72354/Integrative+Considerations+during+the+COVID+3.18.20.pdf

[doschicos]

New York needs medical gowns and is searching for more
CNN

Gov. Andrew Cuomo said New York state is in need of medical gowns and is doing everything it can to fill that need.

“It’s a gown shortage statewide. We’re doing better with masks. We’re doing better with ventilators, nowhere near where we need to be with ventilators, we need 30,000 ventilators, we’re at 6,000. But at least we got to 6,000,” Cuomo said on Saturday during a press conference. “The masks, the medical community has told me over and over again, the masks are the priority for the Covid-19. So we have made progress on masks. Gowns are also very important no doubt. But we have not been successful, as of yet, with finding a supplier of gowns.”

There are 10,356 confirmed coronavirus cases across New York, governor says
From CNN’s Sheena Jones

There are at least 10,356 confirmed cases of Covid-19 across New York, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said in a press conference Saturday.

At least 45,000 people have been tested for Covid-19, the governor said.

About 15% of those cases are being hospitalized.

“The more test you take, the more positives you find,” Cuomo said.

New York state sending masks to NYC to help with coronavirus pandemic
New York state is sending 1 million N95 masks to New York City, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Saturday.

“It won’t get us through the crisis, but it will make a significant contribution to New York City’s mask issue,” Cuomo said.

Apparel companies are converting to mask manufacturers in New York and Cuomo said he is exploring the state of New York manufacturing masks. CNN

New York governor: “Everything that can be done is being done”
CNN

Gov. Andrew Cuomo spoke today on what New York state is doing to respond to the growing coronavirus epidemic.

At the top of Cuomo’s list is increasing hospital capacity, building beds and seeking out locations to help treat a growing number of infected.

“Every piston is firing. Everything that can be done is being done. New Yorkers are lucky we have a very experienced team that’s doing this. This is not their first rodeo, they’ve been through a number of emergencies on a number of levels” Cuomo said Saturday during a press conference. “Increasing hospital capacity. We want to get the capacity of 50,000 up to a minimum of 75,000. We told the hospitals we’re going to be ending elective surgeries. We’re now working with hospitals to reconfigure the space in the hospital to get more beds and to find more staff to manage those beds. We’re working on building new beds.”

Cuomo said he will be looking at the Javits Center, SUNY Stony Brook and the Westchester County Center, among other places, as possible treatment locations.

[doschicos]

@1NJParent

Famed virologist David Ho on COVID-19:

What is disturbing is that virus shedding, as detected in the mouth or nose, is very, very common and could be there prior to onset of symptoms. That’s why transmission could occur from asymptomatic individuals. And virus shedding could continue for days up to three weeks after a person recovers. That is extremely worrisome for the spread of this virus. Furthermore, the stability of this virus is worrisome as well. If you put it in aerosol form and keep it in the air, the half-life is several hours; if you drop it on surfaces of copper or cardboard, it could survive about a day. But if it’s on steel or plastic surfaces, you could still detect infectious virus after 72 hours, although the infectivity decreases with time.
…
I personally believe we will blunt this epidemic, but I think we wasted a good four to six weeks largely because of lack of testing and lack of a certain preparedness. But I think we could still make a difference and bring it under control with very harsh measures.

The Tip of the Iceberg: Virologist David Ho (BS '74) Speaks About COVID-19 - www.caltech.edu

Again why China puts people in recovery centers for 2 weeks after recovery.

[jym626]

CNN reported that In CA and NY they are having to elect to not test some patients for whom the treatment would be no different, advising them to stay home and follow protocol as assuming they are COVID-19 positive. (so the numbers will be even lower than what might have been reported).

[doschicos]

In strategic shift, doctors in America’s two largest cities are told to skip some coronavirus testing
From CNN’s Wes Bruer, Evan Simko-Bednarski, Arman Azad and Matthew Hilk

Health officials in New York City and Los Angeles County are signaling a change in local strategy when it comes to coronavirus testing, recommending that doctors avoid testing patients except in cases where a test result would significantly change the course of treatment.

A news release from the Los Angeles Department of Public Health this week advised doctors not to test those experiencing only mild respiratory symptoms unless “a diagnostic result will change clinical management or inform public health response.”

The recommendation reflects a “shifting from a strategy of case containment to slowing disease transmission and averting excess morbidity and mortality,” according to the statement.

The guidance said coronavirus testing at L.A. County public health labs will prioritized those with symptoms, health care workers, residents of long-term care facilities, paramedics and other high-risk situations. Others are encouraged to simply stay at home.

At about the same time, the New York City Department of Health directed all healthcare facilities to immediately stop testing non-hospitalized patients for Covid-19.

“At this point in the pandemic, demand for unnecessary testing is contributing to the rapidly diminishing supply of PPE and leading to a decreasing supply of swabs and viral transport media used to collect diagnostic specimens for Covid-19 testing,” a statement read. “Testing may play a more significant role after the pandemic has peaked.”

Some context: The strategy shift essentially codifies the reality health departments have been living with for weeks; a shortage of tests and protective equipment amid rising demand and case numbers.

It also puts into practice advice from many of America’s top medical experts, including CNN’s Dr. Sanjay Gupta, that a positive test result is not required to treat the symptoms.

Naturally, limiting testing in America’s two largest population centers would also likely lead to widespread under-counting of total cases.

[ Means no tracing, no containment. Don’t count on anything resembling the South Korean model working here. ]

[doschicos]

Mar-a-Lago is closed because of coronavirus
From CNN’s Betsy Klein

President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago retreat in Palm Beach, Florida, is closed due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Mar-a-Lago members were informed late Friday night, a member said.

More context: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Friday ordered all beaches in Palm Beach County to close, although it was unclear if that applies to private beaches and whether there will be an update Saturday reflecting that information.

DeSantis issued an executive order on Friday directing all beaches, movie theaters, concert houses, auditoriums, playhouses, bowling alleys, arcades, gymnasiums and fitness studios to close in Palm Beach County and neighboring Broward County.

Egypt announces the closure of all mosques for 2 weeks
From CNN’s Raja Razek in Atlanta

Egypt announced the closure of all mosques for two weeks to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, according to the Ministry of Endowment on Saturday.

The Ministry also decided to stop group prayers “based on the scientific opinion of the Egyptian Ministry of Health, the World Health Organization and other health organizations in various countries of the world that confirm the severe danger of gatherings in the transmission of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) and the threat this poses to the life of human beings.”

French Air Force moves coronavirus patients to ease overcrowded hospitals
From Ya Chun Wang in Paris

The French air force is transporting coronavirus patients to the west of the country to ease pressure on overcrowded hospitals in the east.

Airlifts will transport patients in critical condition from the city of Mulhouse in eastern France to the Aquitaine region in the west, according to a statement from the French Ministry of Armed Forces.

The number of coronavirus patients in Mulhouse has spiked since the start of March. As of Friday afternoon, 1,551 people had been hospitalized in the Grand Est region, where the city is situated. Of the total, 352 are in intensive care and nearly 9% are under the age of 60.

The number of coronavirus cases in France has been rising rapidly in the last few days, and the government has imposed strict measures to try to contain its spread, including closing cafes, public spaces and schools.

[TatinG]

Everyone should be treating themselves and others as being infected already. Really, it’s the number of hospitalizations and subsequent deaths that are what we are trying to prevent.