Coronavirus in the US

The compound annual rate of return of the S and P 500 is 7.3% for those who remained fully invested from. Jan 1st 1995 thru March 15th 2020.

If you were out of the the market for the best 20 up days during this 25 year stretch your returns were 2.2%.

If you missed the best 50 days over 25 years your annual returns were negative (-2.25 ) percent per year compounded.

Keep in mind that many of the best up days are actually within the big downturns and the extreme periods of volatility.

That same period of time included the dot com bubble and crash. 911 attacks and Iraq/Afghanistan wars commencing. SARS MERS. H1N1 Ebola. The prolonged financial crisis of 2008 to 2012. Brexit etc To name a few massive crises.

Do what is best for you and personal situation. This is a unique challenge. But remain confident over longer periods of time.

This is not political, let me start by saying WE are all party to this, it didn’t start in the last three years but the trend has been growing at an alarming rate. I consider this to be a valid point for consideration in this situation – and hopefully a lesson going forward.

The question – and subsequent accusations – regarding the lack of appropriate concern and appropriate response might be due to crisis exhaustion.

Every day for several years we’ve been inundated with glaring headlines about the latest crisis – be it political, economic, moral, social or medical. Followed by a thrashing of those who declared the crisis. For reasons I will not address here, ( I need this thread to stay open) the sale of a good crisis is big business.

Years of crying wolf – actually years of a 5 act opera screaming wolf 24/7 – has left a large part of the populace cynical. Left them less reactive to the latest crisis of the day.

Add to this the very real fear those in the public eye have of their actions being filtered thru the lens of racism, xenophobia, weathism etc. and it’s pretty easy to see how we have ALL put ourselves into a position where when something BIG really happens, the response is not what one would expect in functional, normal society.

We are working with skeleton crews in each office, switching to mainly online and telephone and having a list where each physician is asked “what else are you comfortable doing ?”. Some of us can easily switch to ER fast track or hospitalists if needed (assuming regular staff gets sick or needs a break ).

And there is still conflicting information about how states procure the necessary medical equipment. On one hand, we are reassured in pressers that it is a nationwide allocation system, yet on the other hand states are told to go out and get their own.

And we all know who is going to bully his way into the middle of it and grab as much as he can for just one state. He’s got a loud megaphone and a lot of political pull, and he will (probably) pay any price. This has already happened.

It is very unfortunate that he is ignoring a large swath of the state to concentrate on a very large city. Empireapple, you are right on.

(And I’m still curious how NYC residents are getting the “Matilda masks” that individuals are supposed to have if they are 70+ years old.)

@1Benice, thank you for your work, today and every day!

Vermont governor announces business closures due to coronavirus
From CNN’s Jessica Jordan

Vermont Gov. Phil Scott issued an advisory today directing gymnasiums, fitness centers and similar exercise facilities to close all in-person operations no later than 8 p.m. ET on March 23.

The advisory also included hair salons and barbers, nail salons, spas and tattoo parlors.

Apple to donate masks in US and Europe, CEO says
CNN

Apple CEO Tim Cook tweeted Saturday that the tech company will be donating “millions of masks for health professionals in the US and Europe.”

To every one of the heroes on the front lines, we thank you," Cook tweeted.

Tim Cook
:heavy_check_mark:
@tim_cook
Our teams at Apple have been working to help source supplies for healthcare providers fighting COVID-19. We’re donating millions of masks for health professionals in the US and Europe. To every one of the heroes on the front lines, we thank you.

<3

https://www.stltoday.com/lifestyles/health-med-fit/coronavirus/st-louis-city-and-county-to-adopt-stay-at-home/article_da7344c9-fabb-5e64-9d3f-3883bf1fc1f7.html#tracking-source=home-top-story-1

St. Louis to adopt a stay at home order beginning Monday. The first death in the county was a nurse at St. Mary’s Hospital.

South Carolina extends tax deadline and allows curbside alcohol sales
From CNN’s Hollie Silverman

More than half of employees in South Carolina are working from home, according to a press release from state Gov. Henry McMaster.

For 52 of 74 state agencies, a reported 13,902 employees were either working from home or taking leave while 11,411 employees remained at work, the release said.

McMaster extended the state’s income tax deadline to July 15 to match the new federal deadline, the release said. He issued an executive order to direct the state’s Department of Revenue to waive additional regulations allowing restaurants to sell wine and beer “to go” for curbside pickup orders, the release said.

Coronavirus: how Asian countries acted while the west dithered
In Hong Kong and Taiwan, deaths are in single figures. But Europe gambled on a containment strategy

Guardian
Emma Graham-Harrison

Sat 21 Mar 2020 17.25 EDT

The first coronavirus cases in Taiwan and Italy came only 10 days apart. On Sunday Taiwan, which has deep cultural and economic ties to China, has recorded just 153 cases and two deaths. Italy has more than 47,000 cases and 4,032 people have died.

Italy’s epidemic is currently the most devastating in the world; its death toll overtook China’s last week and on Saturday officials in Lombardy said deaths in that region had jumped by 546 in one day to 3,095. The pattern of an exponential explosion in cases, after weeks of government inaction in the face of impending crisis, has been repeated across western countries from Spain, France and Germany, to the UK and the US.

Leaders are now taking measures that would have been unthinkable weeks or even days ago, locking down tens of millions of people from Berlin to Madrid and San Francisco and pouring billions into rescue plans.

But had they acted a few weeks earlier, they could perhaps have avoided much of the human tragedy and economic catastrophe they now face. Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore, which had their first confirmed cases before Europe, but acted early and fast, still have deaths in single digits and, at most, a few hundred cases.

Taiwan, helped perhaps by having an epidemiologist as vice-president, started tracing passengers from Wuhan as soon as China warned of a new type of pneumonia in the city last December, before Covid-19 was identified. Social distancing, ramped-up testing and contact-tracing followed soon after.

Most western countries did little, apart from developing a modest testing capacity – apparently gambling on the disease being contained elsewhere, as previous threatened epidemics, including Sars in 2002-03 and more recently Ebola and Mers, had been.

“The challenge faced by government is whether and when to act on a health threat. If you act swiftly and the outbreak isn’t as bad as feared, then government gets criticised for overreacting. If you adopt a wait-and-see approach and move too slowly, then government gets criticised for underreacting,” says Steve Taylor, professor at the University of British Columbia and author of The Psychology of Pandemics.

“In hindsight, the UK might have been better off if they had adopted the same practices as Taiwan. But if the outbreak had fizzled, the government would have been criticised for overreacting. Taiwan gambled successfully on the assumption that Covid-19 would spread widely and rapidly.”

Other countries that initially allowed the disease to spread – most notably South Korea, which at one point was the country with the most infections outside China – managed to partially tame the outbreak through rigorous testing and tracing contacts of those infected. Subsequently, new infections levelled off, even as they spiralled across Europe.

“I do think we can learn from past mistakes, and South Korea is a really strong example of that if you look at the amount of testing they have been doing, and how fast they were able to mobilise,” said Ashley Arabasadi, chair emeritus of the Global Health Security Agenda Consortium.

“It might be unfair to criticise governments that haven’t had to deal with something like this in over 100 years, while South Korea have had more recent experience.”

South Korea’s sense of urgency was driven in part by recent firsthand experience of how virulent coronaviruses can be due to an outbreak of Mers in 2015 and the 2002-03 Sars epidemic, which also affected Taiwan, Hong Kong and others in the region.

Those diseases barely touched the west, being contained, like others including Ebola, near the site of their outbreak, potentially leaving the west’s leaders too complacent.

“We should have used that time [in January and February] more wisely, but, to be fair, everyone was dealing with an unknown,” said Laura Spinney, a science journalist whose latest book is Pale Rider: The Spanish Flu of 1918 and How it Changed the World. Authorities didn’t want to cause panic initially, she said, but then the balance shifted so “the biggest danger was not panic – it was complacency, and too many governments weren’t moving”.

There is a chance some politicians in the US and Europe, lulled by decades of stability in their countries after the second world war – decades in which they have waged war overseas but never seen life totally upended at home – simply didn’t want to recognise the threat.

“People are not terribly good at estimating risk. Wishful thinking, overestimation of resources, and other factors can cloud our judgment of risk. This may have happened during the current pandemic,” Taylor said.

It’s important, however, that whenever the world does successfully develop a vaccine, or a cure for Covid-19, the tragic lessons of these early crises are not forgotten. Governments need to invest in healthcare systems, so that when the next pandemic arrives, we are better prepared.

“You see a system of panic and response that we go into. Once that initial panic dies down, you get complacency, a lack of understanding that these novel viruses happen regularly and will happen with greater frequency as we become more interconnected,” said Arabasadi. “That’s why there needs to be a greater investment in health and health systems.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/21/coronavirus-asia-acted-west-dithered-hong-kong-taiwan-europe

So sad.

“This 39-year-old New Orleans woman tested for coronavirus. She died before getting her results.
She tested for coronavirus, and her results were delayed. Five days later, she was dead in her kitchen.”

https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/article_bdc4e802-6b90-11ea-a747-832e94bc7f56.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share

There are approximately 23 million Americans over the age of 70 alive today.

@amsunshine that’s so awful. 39.

We have a responsibility to confront Covid-19

America seems reluctant to lead in this crisis: so Europe, and Britain, must step up

Covid-19 is the biggest health, social and economic emergency we have faced since the second world war. And while we’re only at the beginning of the process of halting its spread, we will be living with the consequences for many years to come.

Our first responsibility is to save lives. That means giving our fantastic NHS staff the time and resources they need. The biggest threat to life is if hospitals are overrun – with more patients requiring intensive care than there are beds available – as we’ve seen in Italy with devastating consequences. We’re already starting to see some London hospitals really feeling the strain.

That’s why it’s so crucial that we follow the expert advice – because it buys our NHS more time. Avoid social contact. Work from home if you possibly can – my team and I will. Don’t use public transport unless you absolutely have to. Do not attend any gatherings. Avoid places of worship. Pubs, clubs, gyms, cinemas and theatres should all now be closed. Restaurants and cafes must be takeaway or delivery only. Leave your home only if you really have to – to buy food and other essential items, to take a walk or exercise at a safe distance from others.

Life has changed and we all have to learn to live very differently for a while. We all have to learn how to use technology to keep in touch with loved ones. We’re going to become experts on the latest must-watch TV series!

We have a huge responsibility to look out for the elderly and vulnerable. That means Mother’s Day this year will be like no other. If you know someone who needs help, reach out. Set up a regular call. Ask if you can pick up their shopping and leave it on their doorstep. Please don’t buy any more food than you need. There is no shortage and there will always be enough to go around – if we only take our share.

We don’t know how long this will last. It will probably be many months. But we are not just doing this for our own health. We are doing it for our vulnerable loved ones who could die if we don’t – and for our heroic NHS and social care staff who need our help.

We also have to mitigate the economic impact of coronavirus. Without further decisive and immediate government action, thousands of businesses will go bankrupt and millions of people will be left unemployed, in poverty or homeless. We have a once-in-a-generation responsibility not to let that happen.

The biggest barriers to following the expert advice are economic ones. People cannot be forced to choose between their health and being able to pay the rent and put food on the table. The government must ensure that businesses don’t go under and that not a single person is left permanently unemployed or pushed into poverty, loses their home, or is evicted or left homeless as a result of coronavirus.

The unprecedented measures outlined by the chancellor last week demonstrate he has grasped the severity of the situation – with a job guarantee scheme that should keep millions of people employed, hundreds of billions of pounds available in loans and grants to businesses, and the easing of restrictions on welfare access.

But let me be clear – these announcements alone will not be enough. The government must get the financial support already announced into bank accounts immediately so it can get into people’s purses and pockets. And the scale and scope of the economic response will need to increase if the pandemic lasts longer than the government hopes.

I am particularly worried about the millions of self-employed, freelances and those that work in the gig economy. Their income has not been secured. This must be rectified on Monday. And we must not forget those in our society who have the least: rough sleepers. I am working with the government on urgent measures to help them.

We also need further urgent reform of the welfare system. If someone says they need financial support in order to survive then they must get it without delay. That includes removing the “no recourse to public funds” condition and increasing emergency funding for local authorities and community organisations to help those in immediate need.

And we need a coordinated global economic response to the coronavirus. This virus is not the “Chinese virus”. It does not respect national borders and will affect every country on Earth. With Donald Trump rejecting the traditional leadership role of the US, responsibility for bringing world leaders together falls to us and other European leaders. It’s time for the British prime minister to show leadership.

We all have a role to play to ensure we halt the spread of coronavirus, protect our NHS, save lives and ensure that nobody is left unemployed, in poverty or homeless. Our nation has not seen a challenge of this scale for more than 70 years. We must rise to it.

Sadiq Khan is mayor of London

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/21/covid-19-once-in-a-generation-responsibility-confront

My friend who began exhibiting symptoms after returning from Paris has tested negative.

Her friend who was in a larger meeting where a local public official later tested positive - has also tested negative.

Huh. That’s weird. When I asked about why NY had access to tests in numbers that were hugely disproportionate to their population, I was told it’s because NYers deserve those tests because of the high taxes they’ve paid to put infrastructure in place. Maybe you should ask for some of those state taxes back if you’re not sharing in the resources the state appears to be grabbing for itself.

.
West Virginia’s first case had extreme difficulty even getting tested at all. Once he was finally tested, his sample was “lost.” This guy’s wife is a tenacious advocate.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/21/us/west-virginia-coronavirus-patient-one-test/index.html

US should rally G7, NATO and other global allies together in fight against coronavirus, Kempe says

The U.S. should bring together its global allies in a coordinated fight against the coronavirus pandemic, Atlantic Council CEO Frederick Kempe wrote in a CNBC op-ed.

“As the current chairman of the G-7, the United States could convene a ‘Coalition Countering COVID-19’ that would rally the seven leading industrial democracies, the European Union, NATO and, perhaps most importantly, the G-20,” Kempe wrote.

“It would thus also involve China as a central and collaborative actor against a common foe,” wrote Kempe.

New York-Presbyterian Hospital seeing nearly 50% increase in potential COVID-19 patients

New York-Presbyterian Hospital is experiencing a sharp increase in COVID-19 cases, according to a letter to staff reviewed by NBC News. “Today NYP has about 300 COVID-19 antigen-positive inpatients, with about 200 awaiting test results,” reads the letter from Dr. Craig Smith, surgeon-in-chief at New York-Presbyterian Hospital/Columbia University Medical Center. “This approaches a 50% increase in one day.”

The NYP hospital system is anticipating peak COVID-19 volume within 22-32 days, Smith wrote. At that point, the hospital system will need between 700 to 934 intensive care unit beds, which exceeds the hospital system’s current capacity, Smith wrote.

“This has been a very active day, during which the hard data has become alarming,” he wrote. “I wish I could use a more comforting word.”

[ that’s a huge amount of capacity vs. most hospitals in this country ]

Trump: ‘I don’t know’ if my businesses will receive assistance
President Donald Trump said he wasn’t sure if his business would receive financial assistance as part of coronavirus relief packages being considered by Congress.

“I don’t know. I mean, I just don’t know what the government assistance would be for what I have,” Trump said at a White House briefing. “I have hotels. Everybody knew I had hotels when I got elected. They knew I was a successful person when I got elected so it’s one of those things.”

The U.S. travel and tourism industry has asked for $150 billion in relief to offset a dramatic decline in travel due to the coronavirus.

CNBC

Missouri governor says social distancing order will go into effect Monday
From CNN’s Deanna Hackney

Missouri Gov. Mike Parson said the social distancing order he announced Friday will go into effect at 12:01 a.m. Monday and last until April 6 unless it is extended.

At a Saturday press conference, Parson said:

Missourians should avoid gatherings of more than 10 people.
Avoid eating or drinking at restaurants, bars, or food courts. The use of drive-through delivery or pickup is allowed.
No visiting nursing homes, long-term care facilities, retirement homes or assisted living homes unless it is to provide “critical assistance."
All schools will remain closed.
In addition, the filing and/or payment of state income taxes has been extended to July 15 and an automatic extension of driver’s license renewals and vehicle registrations by two months has been granted.

We do not even know if the 39 year old woman in New Orleans died of corona virus:

She felt good enough to walk the dogs on Thursday, and yet she is dead on the floor the next morning?

Let’s wait to find out if corona virus actually killed her.

WA DOH latest numbers:

Individuals tested: 27,126
Positive: 1,793 (6.6% - rate holding steady)

94 deaths, sadly (83% of deaths in people 70 and over; no deaths in 39 and under)

Agree. A staffer at a local law firm was found dead in her home. She was working remotely after feeling mildly sick. Her firm shut the offices and sent everyone home to work remotely; her test results came back negative.

Berlin limits gatherings to no more than 10
From CNN’s Susanna Capelouto

The city of Berlin limited gatherings to no more than 10 people Saturday. Restaurants in the city can only offer takeout and delivery.

The tightened restrictions in Germany’s capital come a day after the southern state of Bavaria issued restrictions of movement for its residents, allowing only those who have a reason to leave their homes.

Lebanon to use security patrols and checkpoints to prevent people from leaving homes
From CNN’s Ghazi Balkiz

Lebanese Security Forces are implementing a plan to prevent people from leaving their homes to contain the spread of coronavirus in the country, Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan Diab said during a press briefing Saturday.

These plans include security patrols, setting up checkpoints on small, main and international roads to impose the procedures," Diab said, adding that “violators will be prosecuted by the judicial authorities.”
Diab asked the Lebanese people to cooperate with the government.

“I call upon you to implement a self-curfew, because the state alone cannot face this crawling epidemic, the responsibility here is, an individual, social and official responsibility, we are in grave danger, and our victory can only be achieved through the integration of the state, the society and the citizen.”

Earlier Saturday, the Lebanese Minister of Public Health Hamad Hassan tweeted that the country has “slipped into the (virus) outbreak” phase, as the number of cases increased by 81 cases in the last 48 hours.

On Sunday, Lebanese Minister of Information Manal Abdul Samad said in a press conference that “public and private gatherings are banned” and that people are “obligated to stay in their homes unless there is an extreme necessity” to leave them.

Boris Johnson urges against visiting parents on Mothers’ Day
[UK Mother’s Day is tomorrow]

Boris Johnson has warned the coronavirus outbreak is “accelerating”, as he urged people not to visit their parents on Mothers’ Day.

In stark message to the country, he said the NHS was in danger of being “overwhelmed” in the same way as the Italian healthcare system unless people heeded government advice on “social distancing”.

It came as ministers urged the 1.5 million people in England considered to be most at risk from the disease due to their health conditions to begin “shielding” themselves by staying at home.

Letters will go out this week to those concerned, “strongly advising” them not to go out for at least 12 weeks from Monday.

At the same time, the government announced a new local support system to ensure people self-isolating at home without the support of family or friends can get basic groceries delivered.

Military planners, already helping councils and local resilience forums in their responses to the outbreak, have been centrally involved in setting up the new network.

It follows the dramatic announcement on Friday that all pubs, restaurants, cinemas and theatres are to shut in the latest move to combat the disease.

Mr Johnson said that while “everyone’s strongest instinct” was to visit their mother on Mother’s Day, the best single present they could give her was to stay away and spare her the risk of becoming infected.

He added:

This time the best thing is to ring her, video call her, Skype her, but to avoid any unnecessary physical contact or proximity

And why? Because if your mother is elderly or vulnerable, then I am afraid all the statistics show that she is much more likely to die from coronavirus, or Covid-19. We cannot disguise or sugar coat the threat. (Guardian)