Yes, some younger people get seriously ill.
How many die? Did they have underlying health issues?
I’d like to see more data divided into narrower bands.
I’m not saying most people aren’t vulnerable to one extent or another. The reality though is that our elderly and persons with underlying health issues are the most vulnerable.
Give everyone else the “option” to self quarantine or continue life so our economy doesn’t collapse.
@MaineLonghorn - it totally depends on what percentage of the cases will need hospitalization. I have seen estimates that up to 86% of infections result in either no or only mild symptoms. Most of the hospitalizations involve vulnerable peoples (take a read through the co-morbidities of most of the younger victims).
Thus, the goal is not to reduce numbers of infections necessarily, but rather to reduce those infections that are most likely to involve intensive use of medical resources. The best way to do that in my opinion is to help the most vulnerable to self-isolate to the extent we can (no one can get my 81 year old mom to stop - but I guarantee she will sail through this no problem).
Concentrating on the most vulnerable has the coordinate benefit of reducing the need to convince those of lower risk to engage in extreme limitations of their lives that they rationally perceive as unnecessary. I can tell you that many of us are quite rational and understand the issues, and it will not be possible to control these groups for very long anyway.
It may be that whatever we do we cannot stop some measure of overwhelm in the near term (the Italy example). In that case, the best we can all do is face the situation with courage and compassion, rather than attempting to shame others who do not agree with the extremely risk averse view that all infections must be minimized at all costs. I hope that helps a bit.
@MarylandJOE how do you respond to my post #8881?
Are people math-challenged? That’s a serious question.
@sorghum. Here you go. For the record on the actual study.
French study finds anti-malarial and antibiotic combo could reduce COVID-19 duration
Darrell Etherington
@etherington / 11:12 am EDT • March 19, 2020
A new study whose results were published in the International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents has found early evidence that the combination of hydroxychloroquine, a popular anti-malaria drug known under the trade name Plaqenuil, and antibiotic azithromycin (aka Zithromax or Azithrocin) could be especially effective in treating the COVID-19 coronavirus and reducing the duration of the virus in patients.
The researchers performed a study on 30 confirmed COVID-19 patients, treating each with either hydroxychloroquine on its own, a combination of the medicine with the antibiotic, as well as a control group that received neither. The study was conducted after reports from treatment of Chinese patients indicated that this particular combo had efficacy in shortening the duration of infection in patients.
The patient mix included in the study included six who showed no symptoms whatsoever, as well as 22 who had symptoms in their upper respiratory tract (things like sneezing, headaches and sore throats, and eight who showed lower respiratory tract symptoms (mostly coughing). 20 of the 30 participants in the study received treatment, and the results showed that while hydroxycholoroquine was effective on its own as a treatment, when combined with azithromycin it was even more effective, and by a significant margin.
These results represent a limited study with a small number of patients, but they are promising, especially when combined with earlier reports from patients in China with the same treatment options. Researchers globally are testing a number of potential treatments, including a range of drugs used previously in the efforts to combat Ebola, SARS, HIV and other global outbreaks.
There are no confirmed effective treatments specifically for COVID-19 to date, but regulators and medical researchers everywhere are working hard to get through the process of testing and approvals in search of something that can at least reduce the duration or severity of symptoms in patents. Vaccine development is also underway, but any approved and effective COVID-19 vaccine is at least 12-18 months away, even with resources redirected towards developing one as fast as is safety possible.
All of the patients survived. I said 26 but it was 30. But six where not showing symptoms.
Considering NY state has fewer people than FL (19 million vs 22 million people) and at the time of my post - yesterday - NY had over 40,000 tests vs. Florida’s less than 4,000 tests - yes, given the population NY has received a hugely disproportionate number of tests. As to your point about requesting - requesting apparently hasn’t translated into getting.
There is no way to spin or justify that other than the honest responses of the New Yorkers saying they paid more so they deserve more.
I suggest people who are OK with that logic should also not be critical of athletes, celebrities and politicians having first dibs since they also apparently are willing to pay more or use their influence.
Let’s stop pretending this is about anything other than money or influence. Heck, even within the state of NY, the area with the most money and influence - NYC - is apparently taking more of its own state’s resources.
There is a twisted irony here that a few posters who seem to take issue with criticism of the administration also fall into the camp of posting or liking posts that encourage a path other than what the president, in concert with experts in the field (as opposed to the inexpert thoughts of CC posters), has laid out for everyone. Here’s a refresher:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/03.16.20_coronavirus-guidance_8.5x11_315PM.pdf
Do note it doesn’t mention following your own protocols and theories, no mention of “herd immunity”. It specifically states “avoid discretionary travel, shopping trips, and social visits”.
In fact, what has been shown in other countries a week or two ahead of us is that those who don’t follow what is recommended (yes, selfish) can result in even more restrictions placed on the populace so then you get the worst of both worlds - more death and spread of Covid-19 and a further kick in the ass to the economy.
We don’t have time to gather data. We do have data that shows quarantines work.
That’s not what 100% effective means.
"Trump’s tweet referenced an article in a medical journal, the International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents, which appeared online the day before in preprint, meaning it has not been put through “peer review” by other researchers and may or may not stand up to their scrutiny. The article was based on a single study in France that administered the drug regimen to 26 patients infected with the coronavirus, plus 16 in a control group who received only symptomatic care. Of the 26 who got the drugs, one died — a rate of 3.8 percent, which is about in line with the usual estimates of mortality from COVID-19. The experimental treatment was stopped for three when they went into intensive care and one dropped out of the study because of side effects from the drugs.
But the encouraging news from the study was that the people taking the drugs were cleared of the virus — i.e., tested negative — much more rapidly and completely than the control group.
That is very much short of the full clinical trial the Food and Drug Administration typically requires before approving a new drug, which can take a year or more, cost millions of dollars and involve thousands of patients." (Yahoo)
As a nurse, I can attest to the fact that we are VERY VERY VERY wasteful with resources in healthcare. I am not remotely suggesting we should re-use in a manner that is unsafe, but rather than just throwing away one- use PPE, why couldn’t we figure out a way to recycle in a safe, clean manner?
I overheard an interesting conversation today between a few people along the lines of “I’ll believe this when I hear about someone famous dying.”
Honest question, we have heard about many prominent people testing positive (politicians, actors, athletes, etc.). Who is the most “famous” person who has died so far? That is, someone whose positive test was identified as newsworthy in itself. I couldn’t think of anyone off the top of my head.
@milee30 - it occurs to me that there could be a good reason to test famous people early besides just money and power. Think of what Magic Johnson’s diagnosis did for the fight against AIDS. If and when a famous person falls seriously ill or dies from corona, its seriousness will be driven home for many people.
What about using one of those robots to zap PPE with UV light? (I have no idea, I just thought those robots were super cool.)
Like Rock Hudson and AIDS.
Kuwait to impose 11-hour curfew following ‘non-compliance’ with health instructions
From CNN’s Ruba Alhenawi and Taylor Barnes
Kuwaiti Deputy Premier and Interior Minister Anas Al-Saleh announced an 11-hour curfew from 5 p.m. Sunday to 4 a.m. Monday (local time), according to the Kuwait News Agency (KUNA).
Al-Saleh said the government was “forced” to impose the partial curfew due to “non-compliance with the Ministry of Health’s instructions to stay indoors.”
Australia bans all non-essential domestic travel
The Australian government is banning all non-essential domestic travel as it unveils a A$66bn stimulus program to deal with the virus impact.
It has warned of more draconian measures to come. (Guardian)
I just saw the following post on Facebook: “For the average American the best way to tell if you have COVID-19 is to cough in a rich person’s face and wait for their test results.” Harsh but true.
No testing is happening in NY except for NYC yet there are dignosed cases in your Upstate NY area? Testing is either happening Upstate or it isn’t. Upstate was starting to get a sense of where and how many cases there are but now there is no clue.
Austinmashari
There was testing upstate but as of Thursday evening it was halted to included healthcare workers only. Testing of the community is halted. The testing continues for healthcare workers to keep them and their workplace safe which of course needs to happen. Upstate was starting to get a sense of where and how many cases there are but now there is no clue. Obviously as we watch the NY numbers climbing quickly it is all downstate (NYC). They are testing. Downstate has all the resources.
That’s a great idea in my opinion. Maybe not exactly the robot but there should be other UV sterilizing devices available. If not then someone could make a fortune making a microwave oven sized UV sterilizer. Put your mask in, push the button, when the bell rings, take it out and reuse it.
"or continue life so our economy doesn’t collapse. "
There is no either / or.
Because any epidemic that wipes out millions of people- NOT just the elderly- is NOT good for ANY economy.
A logarithmic increase in infected individuals , and the subsequent deaths that will result, which is what your suggestion would cause, will cause the whole world wide economic supply and demand engine to grind to a halt. That is ALWAYS bad for interconnected economies that are reliant on a continued flow of BOTH supply and demand.
Individuals should not have the “option” of acting like there is no crisis, because it is “inconvenient”. China enforced a virtual lockdown, in order to stop the spread of the virus, and it’s economy is already recovering.
There are times when we all must pitch in ,and THIS is one of those times. ESPECIALLY if we want to prevent the collapse of our economy.
Right now, probably Li Wenliang, the physician in Wuhan who noticed the unusual disease, told others about it, was told to shut up about it by local police (being the bearer of bad news is more dangerous in an authoritarian environment like China), and then later got COVID-19 and died.
Well, not recognizably famous by name, but a colleague on NBC’s Today Show died Thursday from covid-19.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/20/nbc-news-employee-dies-from-coronavirus-138722
I am not math-challenged. But yes, many people pointing to increases in case diagnoses day to day, without including their estimate of the contribution of increased testing on the raw numbers, are at least lacking in some basic mathematics intuition.
Jacob Steinhardt (current grad student at Stanford) is somewhat well known to many of the best competition math kids these days, and has just published an interesting note on estimating the “true” prevalence of the virus in populations based on cross country analyses. He is in the process of updating the analyses, and adjusting downwards the numbers, but it might be interesting for those with basic math skills: google “Steinhardt Estimating Coronavirus Prevalence by Cross-Checking Countries” because I cannot link to the site.
You have probably seen the (low) fatality estimates from the British epidemiologist, binned by age cohort. I linked to it in post 8741 above (Table 1, page 5). Well worth reading. Bottom line, it is going to be near impossible to convince many people facing less than an 0.1% chance of death (that is 1 out of 1000 for the math challenged) - most far less than such a chance - to disrupt their lives for very long. People should act accordingly. As they say, you start the war with the army you have. And the American people are not a docile lot by and large.