Coronavirus in the US

Just a guess but heavy smoking, alcohol consumption rates, aging populations and dense population areas are really bad for this particular virus.

The alcohol piece doesn’t apply to Iran of course. But there’s other factors there I would guess.

And I read something about alcohol too. And the younger groups. But I can’t remember exactly.

Perhaps cooler temps too?

This is only from looking at Doschicos updates and trying to look for simplistic clues. I haven’t looked at those numbers by country, just my own supposition.

I realize that most focus has been on the elderly, and these stats show that it affects younger peeps as well. But it’s important to bear in mind that those under 60 represent ~74% of the French population, i.e., 60+ is ~26% of total pop.

Story of how the NBA was watching the virus before most others in the US were paying attention to it:

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28925716/how-nba-moved-quickly-coronavirus-testing

The NBA does have very close relations with China.

@OneMoreToGo2021 You seem to assume only retired people are vulnerable and they can just shut themselves up to weather the storm. In fact, a huge percentage of people under 60 have heart disease, lung disease, diabetes, asthma, cancer or other chronic conditions which make them high risk. Should they all quit their jobs, a blow to them and to the economy would still be severe. Or do you imply they still have to get the economy going, while running a significantly higher than usual risk of dying in the next few months, not mentioning still putting our healthcare under a huge strain?

At least 38 people have tested positive for coronavirus in New York City jails, including at the notorious Rikers Island jail complex, the board that oversees the city’s jail system said Saturday.

In the past six days the Board of Correction learned that at least 12 Department of Correction employees, five Correctional Health Services employees, and 21 inmates have tested positive for the virus.

In a letter to criminal justice leaders, the board’s interim chairwoman Jacqueline Sherman wrote that at least 58 other people were currently being monitored in contagious disease and quarantine units.

It is likely these people have been in hundreds of housing areas and common areas over recent weeks and have been in close contact with many other people in custody and staff, Sherman warned, predicting a sharp rise in the number of infections.

New York has consistently downplayed the number of infections, The Associated Press has found in conversations with current and former inmates.

More than 2.2 million people are incarcerated in the United States more than anywhere in the world and there are growing fears that an outbreak could spread rapidly through a vast network of federal and state prisons, county jails and detention centres.

With limited capacity nationally to test for COVID-19, men and women inside worry that they are last in line when showing flu-like symptoms, meaning that some may be infected without knowing it.

The first positive tests from inside prisons and jails started tricking out just over a week ago, with less than two dozen officers and staff infected in other facilities from California and Michigan to Pennsylvania.

From Reuters: North Korea on Saturday welcomed what it said was a letter from US president Donald Trump to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, saying it was a sign of “the special and very firm personal relations” between the two leaders despite recent frictions.

A senior Trump administration official confirmed Trump sent the letter and said it was “consistent with his efforts to engage global leaders during the ongoing pandemic”.

The president looks forward to continued communications with chairman Kim, the official said.

North Korea state media KCNA said Kim had received a letter from Trump in which the US president said he was impressed by the North Korean leader’s efforts to defend his people from the coronavirus.

Trump “expressed his intent to render cooperation in the anti-epidemic work, saying that he was impressed by the efforts made by the Chairman to defend his people from the serious threat of the epidemic,” KCNA reported in a statement carried by Kim’s sister, Kim Yo Jong.

The report came after North Korea’s missile test on Saturday, which prompted South Korea to urge an immediate halt of “inappropriate action” in the face of the global pandemic.

China confirms new domestic case

For the first time in four days China has reported a new domestic case of the virus.

The case is one of 46 new confirmed diagnoses in mainland China, which is the fourth straight day of an increase.

A record 14 were in the financial hub of Shanghai, and 13 were reported in the capital Beijing, a decline from 21 the previous day.

As in other Asian nations which had appeared to get their outbreaks under control, China is now fearful of a second wave brought in by people coming into the country.

Guardian

In all my reading I’ve seen no mention of alcohol consumption being a factor. Smoking has also been inconclusive and hasn’t been mentioned in the top contributors although respiratory issues have been and smoking can certainly contribute. Existing conditions mentioned the most are hypertension, heart issues and diabetes.

Most experts will say there is not enough evidence to suggest that the impact of cooler/warmer temps is clear. Because many viruses behave that way, there has been speculation that maybe Covid-19 will as well but no guarantees. However, the virus has spread just fine through many parts of the world currently experiencing warm temperatures - Australia, southeast Asia, now Africa and Latin America are seeing cases picking up. In fact, many experts feel that if Covid-19 is affected by temps, we’ll just see seasonal waves much like the flu.

@doschicos good points.

I was trying to think about correlation between places like Italy Ireland France. Spain. Germany is somewhat culturally different than the others.

Also versus some other areas and the Latin American and African numbers not being what I was really afraid would explode.

I know I heard a researcher discussing alcohol as contributor potentially. If I can track it down I’ll post it. But not 100 percent sure of the full premise.

It’s so early. It will be looked at for years to come for sure.

@MarylandJOE wrote:

H has one of these to sterilize his CPAP equipment. These days, we put our cell phones in there every few days too so I just ordered a new bulb.

https://www.3blumin.com/products/

You can get smaller ones designed to sterilize cell phones:

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0813BN2XD?tag=duckduckgo-ffab-20&linkCode=osi&th=1&psc=1

WRT prisons/jails - I’m concerned that if we don’t figure out a solution and fast, there could be riots. I believe there were already corona-related prison riots in France (?) though those were about cancellations of family visits.

Here are a few things I’m particularly interested in; if anyone has info or can point me to relevant articles, please do.

  1. Whether people who vape are more at risk.
  2. Whether people with substance use disorders, other than alcohol addiction or smoking, are at greater risk.
  3. Connection, if any, between socioeconomic status and death rates; that is, are people with less income more likely to die from COVID-19.
  4. Relative effectiveness of social isolation as a preventive measure in places with cold weather now versus in places with warm weather now (that is, are people more likely to stay inside when it’s cold and, if they are, does that make a difference in community spread).
    Thanks.

Hanes (yes, those people who sell things in little plastic eggs) to make medical masks

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/hanes-start-making-masks-health-care-professionals-treating/story?id=69729931

Distilleries to make hand sanitizer:

https://parade.com/1011922/jerylbrunner/distilleries-making-hand-sanitizer/

Ford, Tesla and GM in discussions with you know who to make ventilators:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/business/ford-gm-ventilators-coronavirus/index.html

ALL of these required regulatory suspension; regulatory modifications; huge changes in FDA approval processes.

So while some are flogging the ‘woulda coulda shoulda’ horse and gleefully assigning blame … behind the scenes very positive things have been happening.

Maybe France. Definitely Italy. About a week ago and I read 11 people died. They were upset because they couldn’t get visits from family any longer.

I think releasing some prisoners would be wise and should have been done already. If you are in for a non-violent offense, have less than 6 months left on your sentence, and especially if you are in a high risk category like 60+, to me it seems silly not to grant releases. It would also save some $$.

Some have as indicated here:

https://www.prisonpolicy.org/virusresponse.html

There have been many posts here about regulations being forgone in the emergency setting and businesses stepping up to make needed products. It hasn’t been neglected.

Distilleries making hand sanitizers makes a lot of sense to me.

Distilleries have to first ferment something to make the alcohol. To get a good result they have to maintain a very high level of sanitation, meaning that they have to be able to kill very small things (at least bacteria and fungus/mold/wild yeast) without imparting a bad taste in the resulting product.

Of course they also know how to make a lot of alcohol.

A distillery in Denver is making sanitizers and giving it away… it’s the company’s way of keeping its staff employed since they’re no longer serving in their tasting room.

Even if these data exist, it’s not going to be analyzed for quite a while.

ETA: I analyze these types of data in my work. In order to find answers for 1-3 you’re going to need to pull a lot of records because it’s not like someone is filling out a survey about it. Especially if you’re dead. You’ll need to go through patient records and death certificates, scrape the data, and then analyze it. That will take time. The studies that have come out of china have had very limited data and their records seem to be far more standardized and easily accessible than in the US.

For 4, again you’ll need surveillance data that aren’t available yet.

I don’t think these are the focus right now, maybe China can look back at their data to find the correlations. But remember correlation is not equal to causation.

@doschicos thank you for continuing to post facts and helpful info!

Honestly, I’d be happy if @doschicos had a thread to her/him self without anyone else posting anything on it so that we could find updates to statistics more easily.

The bickering, especially today, has been a lot to wade through, although I’m interested in the different perspectives. I don’t want to lose those, but I would really appreciate a “doschicos and links to news sources only” thread.

A person can wish!

@Nhatrang

Once again the WHO tweeted on January 14th that there is no evidence of human to human transmission. The WHO.

On Jan 30 we shut down all travel to China and from China excluding citizens returning.

What do you think should have been done ?

Europe is pretty sophisticated group with a lot of intelligence services too. What did they do that we didn’t?

Israel is the known for their intelligence services and paranoia. What did they do? They just started doing some of the things we are doing and they are the size of NJ.

Are you see seeing a pattern here. The info being provided was mixed out of China or worse. For everyone.

We should have done
More in January. You are correct. Shut down all travel.

Sure but who wouldn’t have gone nuts then in the USA

Start having hearings with the senate and House? They did despite those bodies focusing on other “existential” threats as they were called at the time. Not much press coverage available with wall to wall impeachment news.

When we banned travel to Europe. It wasn’t good idea it was wall to wall why didn’t we waste a few more hours consulting with them.

Yeah. We should have done a lot more in January. I don’t even remember the Coronavirus thread back then, we could have provided all the answers.