Coronavirus in the US

Parent Cafe
9681

Dow is up sharply today. Which is a needed respite for my team.

Hopefully the congress acts today. I personally think some of the ideas that are sticking points may be worth consideration but not now. The house is burning and we need water. Not an architect thinking about design ideas. Wind and solar credits. Same day voter registration. Corporate board reform. Fuel limitations on airlines. What the hell do these potentially good ideas have to do with the emergency. It’s a version of political hoarding and profiteering on our backs.

The olympics are cancelled.

On the things one never would have expected front. Bill Diblasio thanked president trump this am on naming peter Navarro, the current focus on nyc and their recent conversations. Trump said the mayor is working hard.

If they can work together and talk. Anyone can. Good to hear for now.

Dr oz reported that he’s hearing from some sources that the combo drug protocol is showing some progress. Hopefully these clinical trials bear fruit. Wouldn’t that be great.

Also. It’s not the president’s fault that some grown man decides to ingest fish tank ingredients. He certainly has faults but this isnt on him. We do have a tradition of free choice and self reliance that shouldn’t be thrown out the window.

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Apologies if this has been discussed already. Anyone read the article in The Atlantic about Denmark hitting the pause button on the economy for three months?

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OK, assume you get 100% of the USA to agree to this. Then what? The rest of the world isn’t doing this and as soon as you get a few people who travel abroad or who come here from any other country, the infection here will start again…

Unless you can get the entire world to lock down hard for at least two months, this idea - lock down the USA for a little while - will just not work because the coronavirus is out in the world at large.

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@privatebanker. Your ideas are great. Think of running for office… Lol. Hope someone is listening to you ?

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@Knowsstuff

Wow. Hadn’t heard about Denmark. That’s probably possible there. I worked I Copenhagen during the 90s. It’s a pretty small country and they have a different way of looking at the world as a generalized view. They could pull it off.

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Every projection I have seen shows that the more social distancing measures that are undertaken, the flatter the curve, but the longer the virus takes to work its way through the population. So, it is not like increasing protective measures is a win-win because they will not shorten the duration of this event.

The need for quasi-lockdown must be balanced against the harm to the economy. Two to three weeks strikes about the best balance I’m guessing. Hopefully, this gets us through the worst part of the growth curve with minimal possible hospital overwhelm and allows some time for production of necessary medical supplies.

As well, a few weeks will allow some time to prepare for more extreme social isolation measures for the elderly and most vulnerable. In the end they are the most dependent on the economy not falling apart, so have an extremely large interest in us getting this balance right.

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Do you mean the most vulnerable to death or hospitalization? Because I don’t think anyone knows exactly which people under 70 will need to be hospitalized if they get this. Right now, we have educated guesses and anecdotes. But it is likely that some people of all ages are genetically predisposed to severe illness with COVID-19, regardless of pre-existing conditions, vaping, fitness level etc. How can we ask them to be under “extreme social isolation measures” if we don’t know who they are?

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The idea of a “debt jubilee” has been proposed if the economic shutdown goes on too long. Erase everyone’s debt and start from scratch.

https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/03/23/a-debt-jubilee-is-the-only-way-to-avoid-a-depression/

This article also appeared in the Washington Post but I don’t have a subscription.

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If any country is to decide they want to go for the herd immunity option after all, they can just stop social distancing and let things play out. You can sit down with a calculator and start doubling the current number of cases.

First day doesn’t count, that’s probably the just the number of people really infected but not yet tested. Possibly second day doesn’t count either. Then keep multiplying until you are running out of population. The US and the UK might take ten days, the rest of Europe maybe 7 or 8.

Then take the current number of deaths and start doubling them, too, but to the number of days you came up with, add another two weeks incubation period.

That’s probably not very accurate. Play around with it and come back with the number of dead society should be ready to accept.

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We offer people the best estimates as to the dangers based on age and risk factors and let them make their own choices based on their risk tolerances. Not all will make the best choices, obviously, but in the aggregate this should be the best way to balance the need for freedom with the government’s role in this crisis. I trust the collective wisdom of millions of people more than I do the wisdom of politicians and even public health experts (who never anticipated this in the first place), so long as the same best estimates of mortality and complications are provided to all groups.

Obviously, government and society generally should offer as much assistance as possible to those who choose to self-isolate. But that assistance does not extend to destroying the economy or the society generally. Again, the elderly and most vulnerable are the ones most dependent on a functioning economy and society in the end, so this should be an acceptable balancing even to them.

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The Daily podcast was very sobering this morning.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/podcasts/the-daily/coronavirus.html

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Please post a link.

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New York City mayor says he requested 15,000 ventilators from the federal government
WABC

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio said the city requested 15,000 ventilators from the federal government for the duration of the coronavirus pandemic.

De Blasio made the comments as he toured the NYC Emergency Management Warehouse in Brooklyn, New York, this morning.

International Baccalaureate Organization cancels May exams
From CNN’s Isaac Yee

The International Baccalaureate Organization has announced that its May 2020 examination session will be canceled due to the global outbreak of the novel coronavirus.

“Our students, their well-being and their progression in future stages of life have been at the forefront of our thinking as we respond to this extraordinary pandemic,” the organization said in a statement Monday.
This is the first time an examination session has been canceled, according to the International Baccalaureate Organization.

Last year, more than 250,000 students across 144 countries took part in the exams, which are crucial in determining university placements across the globe.

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US House leader says she’s optimistic about a deal “in the next few hours”
From CNN’s Haley Byrd

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said this morning that “there is real optimism that we could get something done in the next few hours,” as negotiations between congressional leaders and the Trump administration for a coronavirus stimulus package continue.

“I think we’re getting to a good place, if they stay there,” Pelosi said in an interview on CNBC.

Pressure has been intensifying for days on the Senate to pass a massive stimulus package to respond to the economic fallout of the coronavirus, but Monday came and went without much action.

Pelsoi said she believes the Senate bill will incorporate House Democrats’ language on oversight for some of the funds in the package, and that the new version has also boosted resources for state and local governments.

“We wanted a strong infusion of resources for state and local governments because they are taking a big bit of this apple,” she said.

“We think the bill has moved sufficiently to the side of workers,” Pelosi added. She said congressional leaders "all appreciate the urgency.”

Pelosi suggested she is hoping to avoid bringing the full House back to Washington to vote on the package, seeking to pass it through unanimous consent instead.

What this means: Unanimous consent is commonly used for uncontroversial measures, not for packages of such magnitude as the coronavirus stimulus. In recent weeks, a group of members have pushed against the idea of returning to the Capitol, where they fear they will contribute to the spread of the virus. Any one member can block a unanimous consent request.

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Brits who ignore government lockdown instructions will be fined $35 on the spot
From CNN’s Niamh Kennedy in London

Brits who fail to follow the government’s instructions to stay at home face an on-the-spot fine of 30 pounds — or about $35.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s spokesperson announced the measures this afternoon and indicated that the fines could be subject to increase.

Yesterday, the Prime Minister announced a number of restrictions on the movements of the British public. British people may only leave their homes to get groceries, visit the doctor, exercise once a day or to go to work if it is not possible to do so from home.

A Downing Street spokesperson confirmed to CNN a report by Reuters announcing that police will be able to impose these penalties “as soon as possible and by Thursday at the latest.” The measures have been taken to help “disperse groups of people who are flouting the rules.”

The spokesperson confirmed that the amount would be regularly reviewed and could be increased “significantly if it is necessary to ensure public compliance.”

Coronavirus cases increasing at a slower rate in hardest hit part of Italy
From CNN’s Nicola Ruotolo in Rome and Sharon Braithwaite in London

The number of coronavirus cases are rising but the increases are slower than compared to what happened in the last week, said Lombardy governor Attilio Fontana during a news conference today.

"It seems that a much more limited growth trend has stabilized " compared to a few days ago, Fontana added.

This could “hopefully mean that we are going towards a decrease (of cases) in the next few days”, Fontana said.

Fontana also said that Guido Bertolaso, advisor of the Lombardy region for the coronavirus emergency, had tested positive for coronavirus and is self-isolating at home. “He gave me his availability to carry on working for the realization of the hospital remotely”, Fontana said.

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https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/denmark-freezing-its-economy-should-us/608533/

Midwest67: apologies for jumping in front of you to answer . I read it when it came out a few days back.

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London university launches app to track coronavirus symptoms

King’s College London is launching a new app that allows users to track coronavirus symptoms, which it hopes will slow the outbreak.

About 5,000 twins and their families from across the UK have been recruited to test the app, which will help researchers identify:

How fast the virus is spreading in different areas
High-risk areas in the country
Which symptoms correspond to the coronavirus
Why some people are more at risk
Why twins? They “enable researchers to separate the effects of genes from environmental factors such as diet, lifestyle, previous illnesses and infections, and the microbes within the gut (microbiome)” the school said in a news release.

The twins will record information about their health on a daily basis, including temperature, tiredness and symptoms such as coughing, breathing problems or headaches. Any participants showing signs of Covid-19 will be sent a home testing kit.

The app will be available to the public without the home testing component, and to health professionals who want to contribute to the research.

German army loses 6 million face masks at Nairobi airport
From CNN’s Stephanie Halasz and Nadine Schmidt in Berlin

The German army has lost six million protective masks at the airport in Nairobi, Kenya, a spokesperson for the German Defense Ministry has told CNN.

The Defense Ministry — tasked by the country’s Health Ministry with sourcing the masks — had ordered the masks from an unnamed commercial company. The German company had confirmed the order, with anticipated receipt by the Health Ministry in Germany, the spokesperson said.

The spokesperson did not know why the masks were lost in Nairobi and did not know where they were originally shipped from. No payment had yet been taken, as it was due on delivery.

Meanwhile, German company Qiagen, which produces diagnostic tests for Covid-19 that it says can give results in just one hour, began shipping tests on Tuesday to the US.

Thierry Bernard, Chief Executive Officer of Qiagen, said: “We are pleased to begin making QIAstat-Dx SARS-CoV-2 test kits available in the United States as the first syndromic test not only to detect SARS-CoV-2, but also a range of more than 20 other respiratory targets.
“This is an important step in our commitment to offer a range of solutions to support the public health fight against COVID-19 and dramatically ramp up production. Our teams have responded rapidly to the challenge, implementing 24/7 production of test components, adding staff and investing in expanding production capacity.”

There have been 30,081 cases and 130 deaths recorded in Germany, according to Johns Hopkins University.

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FEMA chief says they’ll use the Defense Production Act today
From CNN’s Adrienne Vogt

The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s administrator Peter Gaynor says his team told him they are going to use the Defense Production Act for the first time today.

Gaynor says FEMA will use it today for about 60,000 test kits.

“There’s some test kits we need to get our hands on," he said on CNN this morning. “We’re going to insert some language into these mass contracts that we have for the 500 million masks. [Defense Production Act] language will be in that today.”

What this is about: President Trump said he would invoke the act, which grants him authority to direct private companies to ramp up production of needed medical supplies to fight the coronavirus pandemic in the US.

The law, passed in 1950 as a response to the Korean War, gives the government more control during emergencies to direct industrial production.

Shortly after Trump announced he would be invoking the Defense Production Act, the White House received pushback from business leaders, who expressed concern that the act could cause major unforeseen problems, including profit loss.

Tokyo Summer Olympics postponed

Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe says he has reached an agreement with International Olympic Committee President Thomas Bach to postpone the Olympics for about one year.

Summer 2021 is the latest that these Olympics could be held, Abe said. CNN

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Nothing can go back to business as usual until the hospitals are fully ready. They must have the beds, PPEs, and ventilators to handle the crush that will come if business resumes as usual.

Nothing that is done for the greater good is without risk. For every bridge that is built, someone may be killed building it. For every vaccine or medication, some people are going to have side effects and die because of them. No one will be forced to stop self isolating. Those with underlying conditions and the very elderly should stay isolated.

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Thanks for the link.

Of course, we’re spending more than $2.5 trillion.