I expected it would happen at the very beginning of cases coming here and was really surprised it didn’t happen. I don’t know if you remember my post about this and people told me what I imagined couldn’t happen because this is a free country and America, etc. I think we will see federally mandated lockdowns. I hope if they happen they are done well and prevent transmission and help the people both in and out of those locked down areas.
What I wonder if if the virus can be transmitted through the air conditioning and hot air systems in large buildings in NYC. In China, they do not allow use of any air system in the quarantine hotels to prevent transmission. If those things can transmit the virus, then being in a densely packed city would be dangerous and reason to leave and go to a single home summer home. also, I think that there could be more easily shortages of food in a crowded city than many other places, or people living in crowded cities could feel it is more of a possibility, anyway. In the country side people can still safely get out and go for walks in a stay home/stay put situation where city people could not.
I do agree it would be much safer if people stay where they are. People leaving hot spots like NYC are going to spread the disease all around. One thing China did was prevent people from traveling in and out of various parts of the country and that greatly helped stem the spread. They could trace outbreaks to other areas to single people, they were doing so much tracking. Then they could do contact tracing and quarantining of people exposed. We are so beyond that and the NYC people going to Maine, RI, CT, etc are going to spread the disease a lot. Cases around there will spike in the coming weeks.
We all love freedoms, but they are only meaningful to those of us who are alive to enjoy them.
I imagine it would look a lot like what it looks like now in areas where the quarantine is taken seriously by residents and law enforcement: people out only when they absolutely need to be, mostly empty streets, few stores open. In some areas there may be curfews and/or threats of major fines. In my city violating the stay-at-home directive is a $1,000 fine. Those are meant mostly for the idiots who thought stay-at-home could include volleyball games and picnics in the park.
Data. We need more data. All the models and projections we have are of limited utility because of testing limitations.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464
Tangent topic but my husband thinks it is possible China will use the time when America hits the peak to fully take over Taiwan, which many of you probably know it has always claimed is part of China and not a separate country. If so, the US would very possibly be in no shape to respond in any way.
Yup. Ours are from years ago when DH did woodworking and a couple I bought in the very start of January when it seemed like this was going to come here.
@“Cardinal Fang” Perhaps if could please refrain from personalizing things if you don’t mind.
Here my source.
Worst-Case Coronavirus Science
Neil Ferguson clarified his Covid-19 projections. Good for him.
By The Editorial Board
Wall Street Journal
March 27, 2020 7:17 pm EST
Give Neil Ferguson a break. Nearly two weeks ago Mr. Ferguson, an epidemiologist with Imperial
College London, issued a report on Covid-19.
Much of the public attention focused on his worst-case projection that there might as many as 2.2 million American and 510,000 British deaths.
———Fewer paid attention to the caveat that this was “unlikely,” and based on the assumption that nothing was done to control it.
The report was one reason that led Prime Minister Boris Johnson to change policy and lock Britain down. Under the Imperial College model, the projection was that the steps Mr. Johnson had been taking would cut the number of projected deaths in half but still leave about a quarter million British dead.
———Now Mr. Ferguson has clarified his estimates.
———-He told Parliament this week that he now reckons the number of deaths in the U.K. “would be unlikely to exceed 20,000”—and that many would be older people who would have died from other maladies this year.
—— With the measures now in place, he believes Britain’s health service won’t be overwhelmed.
Critics are bashing him for the revisions, but not so fast. Mr. Ferguson didn’t change his model so much as adjust for new circumstances. In particular he believes that Covid-19 is more transmissible than he previously had thought—but because strong measures had been implemented, deaths would be far lower than his worst-case scenario.
So perhaps clarified to an unbelievably different degree and clarity versus revised. But I think most will understand the context.
Are you able to go for walks? Are you expected to stay indoors at all times?
Our state gave guidelines for the number of people who can gather anywhere and recently reduced the number. I have wondered if they are getting us reading for the zero gatherings decree gradually.
Family in China were in lockdown areas where even now they need a paper pass to go out.
Many K-12 school districts across the country (including ours) are closed, probably for the rest of the school year. Our district has no yet issued guidance on what it is going to go with the high school classes this semester in terms of grades and exams. The virtual instruction so far has been lightweight and focused on review rather than new material
I wonder what schools districts are doing to finish the classes?
Totally agree with you and I’m not tired of you saying it. The only reason for us to not wear masks right now is to ensure the masks (which are scarce) are available for healthcare workers. Hopefully, in the next few months and supply increases and people make homemade masks, it will be more common for Americans to wear them.
I don’t know where this notion came from, but it does not reflect the historical response of the U.S. government.
Here is the federal
PLAYBOOK
FOR EARLY RESPONSE TO HIGH-CONSEQUENCE
EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASE THREATS AND
BIOLOGICAL INCIDENTS
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/25/trump-coronavirus-national-security-council-149285
I would have thought that some of the guidance in the document was obvious, but since it is not, we can turn to page 31. We find
And also, on the issue of whether the federal government should leave things to the states (hint: no), we find, on the same page:
@privatebanker, Neil Ferguson revised his estimates for Britain, because Britain went in lockdown, but he didn’t revise his estimates for the US.
fwiw:
I wasn’t recommending anyone leave NYC in a panic. I agree everyone needs to stay put. And I do know how to google.
Some people reading this thread are in NYC, or their kids are there. They can see what is happening. They are texting each other about this in real time.
During Occupy Wall Street, mainstream reporting seemed very sketchy to me. There was quite a bit of on the ground reporting, and a lot of it posted on Huffington Post (which was a completely different news site then than today imho) I’m looking for the NYC pandemic equivalent.
It might not be historical but it is in FEMA’s messaging now and on the White House website.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/DisasterRecovery.pdf
Yup. Ours are from years ago when DH did woodworking and a couple I bought in the very start of January when it seemed like this was going to come here.
I am a teacher and we are being told to keep in mind extenuating circumstances when grading. I have the dilemma of trying to continue to give assignments when some students are getting far behind due to all sorts of reasons. I am going to go deeper into topics so I am not moving as quickly over topics but am giving meaningful work to those who are doing the work. We are working hard to reach out to families and ensure all can access the online work (lending devices, getting families hoooked up with free internet). We have to plan more how the last quarter of the year will work. some at my son’s school find they have way more work now and are overwhelmed. My son has a lot more in only one class but overall is finding he has less work so far.
Which states have issued stay at home orders?
States with Stay at Home Orders
- New York
- New Jersey
- Most of New England
- The West Coast
- Midwest (Kentucky north through Minnesota)
- Louisiana
States without Stay at Home Orders
- Florida (although counties are beginning to issue their own)
- Every state that borders FL
- Texas
- Oklahoma
- Kansas
The article has a map and information for every state. A search bar makes it easy to quickly find information for individual states easily.
Source
NY Times: “See Which Cities and States Have Told Residents to Stay Home,” 3/27/20
I agree, milee30. I know that healthcare workers are the priority for masks. I agree with it, too. There are others who should also be 2nd priority in masks as well who work in high exposure, essential jobs. I do hope that supply catches up with need very soon.
Hawaii has stay at home orders, plus quarantine for 14 days for all people coming into our state PLUS quarantines by county.
France orders 1 billion face masks from China
From CNN’s Arnaud Siad in London and Fanny Bobille in Paris
France has ordered 1 billion face masks from China, French Health Minister Olivier Véran confirmed in a press conference on Saturday.
Speaking alongside Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, Véran said the country could produce 8 million face masks a week but consumed 40 million each week.
A week ago: Olivier Véran said France had ordered over 250 million masks amid the coronavirus outbreak in the country.
The number of deaths from coronavirus in Italy has passed 10,000 while the number of total cases is now over 90,000.
On Saturday, Italy announced 889 new deaths from Covid-19, as total fatalities leapt to 10,023. Another 5,974 have tested positive with coronavirus, 470 less than Friday.
Some 70,065 people across the country are currently infected with Covid-19.
The total number of contagions in Italy, including the deceased and those who have recovered, is 92,472.
Yesterday, the country recorded its highest daily rise in Covid-19 deaths, with 969 new fatalities.
On 31 March, flags will be flown at half-mast in cities across Italy to commemorate the victims of the pandemic.
Italy’s prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, warned on Saturday that the EU could lose its purpose if it failed to come up with a strong response to the coronavirus threat and accused other member states of a timid response to an unprecedented economic shock.
“If Europe does not rise to this unprecedented challenge, the whole European structure loses its raison d’être to the people,” Conte told the Il Sole 24 Ore financial newspaper.
“We are at a critical point in European history,” Conte added, “I represent a country that is suffering a lot and I cannot afford to procrastinate.”
The national government is said to be considering plans to extend a country-wide lockdown to mid-April.
The Higher Health Institute (ISS) said that the peak of the coronavirus epidemic in Italy was approaching.
“We have seen an apparent reduction in the infection curve since 20 March but we are not yet in a downward phase,” said ISS president Silvio Brusaferro. (Guardian)
NHS
Covid-19 patients in UK intensive care have 50% survival rate
Findings of new report raise concerns about how effective new facilities being built by UK government will be
Denis Campbell and Toby Helm, Guardian
The mortality rate for patients put in intensive care after being infected with Covid-19 is running at close to 50%, a report has revealed.
Data from the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (ICNARC) showed that of 165 patients treated in critical care in England, Wales and Northern Ireland since the end of February, 79 died, while 86 survived and were discharged. The figures were taken from an audit of 775 people who have been or are in critical care with the disease, across 285 intensive care units. The remaining 610 patients continue to receive intensive care.
The high death rate raises questions about how effective critical care will be in saving the lives of people struck down by the disease. As a top priority, the NHS is opening field hospitals in London, Birmingham and Manchester, which will incorporate some of the biggest critical care units ever seen in Britain.
“The truth is that quite a lot of these individuals [in critical care] are going to die anyway and there is a fear that we are just ventilating them for the sake of it, for the sake of doing something for them, even though it won’t be effective. That’s a worry,” one doctor said.
The report also found that though the majority of those who have died from coronavirus across the UK were over 70, nine of the 79 who died in intensive care were aged between 16 and 49, as were 28 of the 86 who survived.
The audit suggested that men are at much higher risk from the virus – seven in ten of all ICU patients were male, while 30% of men in critical care were under 60, compared to just 15% of women. Excess weight also appears to be a significant risk factor; over 70% of patients were overweight, obese or clinically obese on the body mass index scale.
The grim statistics were made public as a Tory MP who works in the NHS said that frontline health service staff who had no symptoms of Covid-19 but who might still be infected should be included among those to be tested to prevent the crisis getting worse.
The former health minister Dan Poulter, who works as a psychiatrist in wards with many cases of the virus, says widespread testing could be a “game-changer” that would prevent staff who are asymptomatic carriers of the virus from passing it on to patients in hospital for other reasons.
Widespread testing of those who are self-isolating with mild symptoms would also allow them to get back to work if they tested negative.
Writing in the Observer, Poulter says: “NHS staff sickness levels are already high, and they are only going to increase as the Covid-19 outbreak intensifies.
“Many of us are also worried that we may be infected, yet asymptomatic (showing no symptoms) and therefore could be a potential risk to our patients, colleagues and families. That is the last thing that we would want, but we simply do not know.
“Widespread NHS staff testing would be a game-changer and would help NHS clinicians to both protect our patients and return to the front line faster.”
He says a lack of testing so far is causing medical staff to stay away from work with relatively minor symptoms which are probably not Covid-19 related, such as a sore throat, for fear they may have the virus. If they were to test negative they could return to work.
Michael Gove, the cabinet office minister, said on Friday that extra testing would be carried out on NHS staff from this weekend. But he made it clear that this would initially be directed only at key NHS staff and care workers who were self-isolating. Many doctors, nurses and other staff want it extended to all frontline staff.
Poulter suggests also that the government should be asking senior doctors for advice on how the pandemic will play out in hospitals, rather than relying only on experts who work away from the frontline.
“We have many such clinicians already in senior leadership roles in hospitals throughout the country,” he says. “It’s time to better utilise their knowledge and experience.”