Coronavirus in the US

Coronavirus: China ramps up Covid-19 test kit exports amid global shortage, as domestic demand dries up

More than 100 Chinese companies are selling coronavirus testing kits to Europe, but most are not licensed to sell in China

A global shortage of kits has sparked a scramble for resources, but the specialist nature of the production process provides limitations

As the horror of the coronavirus outbreak in China was unfolding over January’s Lunar New Year holiday, a group of technicians were holed up in a Nanjing facility with a supply of instant noodles, working long hours to develop testing kits for diagnosing the virus.

Already at that point, the coronavirus had ripped through the city of Wuhan and was spreading rapidly around China. A handful of diagnostic tests had already been approved by the central government in Beijing, but hundreds of firms in China were still scrambling to develop new ones.

“I did not think about applying for approvals in China,” said Zhang Shuwen, founder of Nanjing Liming Bio-products. “The application takes too much time. When I finally get the approvals, the outbreak might already be finished.”

Instead, Zhang is part of a legion of Chinese exporters selling testing kits to the rest of the world amid the rapid spread of the pandemic outside China, where the outbreak is now increasingly under control, leading to a fall in domestic demand.

In February, he applied to sell four testing products in the European Union, receiving official CE accreditation in March, meaning they complied with health, safety and environmental standards set by European regulators. Now, Zhang has an order book brimming with clients from Italy, Spain, Austria, Hungary, France, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Japan, and South Korea.

“We have so many orders now that we are working until 9pm, seven days a week. We are considering working 24 hours a day, asking workers to take three shifts every day,” Zhang said.

Infection hotbeds have exploded across Europe and the United States, with the epicentre shifting out of Wuhan in central China to Italy, then Spain and now New York. The chronic shortage of testing equipment means that rather than being diagnosed, potential patients considered “low-risk” are being asked to stay at home.

“At the start of February, about half of our testing kits were being sold in China and half abroad. Now, there are almost none being sold domestically. The only ones we sell here now are for passengers arriving from outside [China] who need to be tested,” said a senior executive at the BGI Group, China’s largest genome sequencing company, who spoke under the condition of anonymity.

At the start of February, BGI was making 200,000 kits a day out of its plant in Wuhan, the original epicentre of the outbreak. The plant, with a “few hundred” workers, was kept running 24 hours a day while most of the city was closed.

Now, he said the company is producing 600,000 kits per day and has just become the first Chinese company to gain emergency approval to sell its fluorescent real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests in the US.

Chinese-made testing kits are becoming a more common presence throughout Europe and the rest of the world, adding a new dimension to the roaring debate over dependence on medical supplies from China.

As of Thursday, 102 Chinese firms have been granted access to the European market, according to Song Haibo, chairman of the China Association of In Vitro Diagnostics, compared with just one being licensed in the US. Many of these companies, though, do not have the required National Medical Products Administration permission to sell in China.

In fact, just 13 companies have been licensed to sell PCR testing kits in China, with eight selling the simpler antibody version.

A manager at a biotechnology firm in Changsha, who wished not to be identified, said the company is only licensed to sell PCR testing kits for animals in China, but is preparing to ramp up production of 30,000 newly-designed Covid-19 kits to sell in Europe, after “just receiving a CE certificate on March 17”…

Last week, Spanish newspaper El País reported that antigen testing equipment from the Shenzhen-based firm Bioeasy Biotechnology only had a 30 per cent detection rate for Covid-19, when they were supposed to be 80 per cent accurate. Bioeasy, it emerged, was not included on an approved list of suppliers offered to Spain by China’s Ministry of Commerce.

Bioeasy subsequently denied that the equipment was faulty, suggesting instead that the Spanish researchers had not correctly followed instructions.

Filipino authorities also said on Saturday they had discarded testing kits imported from China, claiming they had only a 40 per cent rate of accuracy.

“I guess, given the desperate situation, maybe the focus is now on speed, and maybe the process has not been that thorough,” said a European Union source, who asked not be named.

“But this should be a rude awakening not to give up on quality control, or we will be throwing precious scarce resources out of the window and bringing further weaknesses to the system, allowing the virus to expand further.”

The more complex PCR test tries to find genetic sequences of the virus by deploying primers – chemicals or reagents which are added to test if a reaction occurs – that attach to the targeted genetic sequences. The so-called “rapid testing” is also carried out with a nasal swab, and can be done without the subject leaving their car. The sample is then quickly analysed for antigens that would suggest the virus is present.
Leo Poon, head of public health laboratory sciences at Hong Kong University, said PCR testing is “much preferable” to antibody or antigen testing, which can only detect coronavirus once the patient has been infected for at least 10 days.

However, PCR tests are far more complex to develop and manufacture, and with an acute global shortage of quality testing equipment, countries around the world are stocking up on the simpler format.

Part 1

Part 2

Increasingly, governments are turning to China, which along with South Korea, is one of the few places in the world with testing kits still available.

On Thursday, Irish airline Aer Lingus announced that it would send five of its biggest planes to China each day to pick up medical equipment, including 100,000 test kits per week, joining a host of other nations repurposing commercial aircraft as jumbo medical delivery vessels.

But it has been suggested that even with such a push, China could not meet all of the world’s demand for test kits, with one vendor describing total global demand as “infinite”.

Huaxi Securities, a Chinese investment firm, last week estimated the global demand for test kits at up to 700,000 units per day, but given that the lack of tests has still resulted in almost half of the planet implementing draconian lockdowns, this figure seems conservative. And given the fear over virus carriers who do not show symptoms, in an ideal world, everyone would be tested, and probably more than once.

“Once the virus became uncontained, I’m not sure the world, even if fully organised, could have been tested at the levels people want to test at,” said Ryan Kemp, director of nucleic acid solutions at Zymo Research, an American manufacturer of molecular biology research tools, which has pivoted “100 per cent to supporting the Covid-19 effort, literally mobilising the entire company to supporting it”.

Song, at the China Association of In Vitro Diagnostics, estimated that if you combined the capacities of the firms licensed in China and the European Union, enough tests could be made each day to serve 3 million people with a mixture of PCR and antibody tests.

As of Thursday, the US had tested 552,000 people in total, the White House said. Stephen Sunderland, a partner focused on medical technology at Shanghai-based LEK Consulting, estimated that if the US and European Union were to follow the same level of testing penetration as South Korea, where the testing effort has been heralded, there would be a need for 4 million tests.

With this in mind, it is unlikely that all the manufacturing capacity in the world could meet demand, at least in the near term.

Testing equipment is “not like making masks”, said the source at BGI, who warned that it would be impossible for non-specialist firms like Ford, Xiaomi or Tesla to make test kits, given the complexity and barriers to entry.

From the company’s current capacity of 600,000 a day, “it is impossible to expand the factory” due to the procedural wrangling involved, said the BGI source. The space in which diagnostic equipment is produced in China must meet tight clinical standards, and so it is understood that the approval process for a new facility takes between six and 12 months.

“It is more challenging to increase the output all of a sudden, or have to look for an alternative source, than in the case of masks,” said Poon at Hong Kong University. “The factory has to be accredited and must meet high standards, meaning it is hard to increase capacity all of a sudden, it takes time to do so.”

Song said that for something as serious as coronavirus, having a testing kit approved by China could be even more arduous than usual.

“The virus is highly contagious and the specimen management is strict, it is difficult for general enterprises to obtain samples to fully verify and evaluate the products,” he added.

The outbreak has also tightened availability of the raw materials used in the equipment, leading to shortages the world over.

For instance, a product made by Zymo Research to transport and store biological samples is available in ample supply. But the firm is seeing a shortage of the simple swabs needed to gather the samples.

Zymo’s solution works with other company’s swabs, “however there are such limited supplies of swabs worldwide, that we have been providing reagent to organisations to pair with the swabs they have on hand”, said Kemp, adding that, in a twist that emphasises the globalised nature of the medical supply chain, many of the world’s swabs are made by Italian company Copan, in the virus-stricken Lombardy region.
Benjamin Pinsky, who runs the main reference laboratory for coronavirus for Northern California out of Stanford University, said “there have been huge challenges with the supply of particular reagents and consumables” used in PCR testing.

While Pinsky has devised a PCR test, he has had great difficulty in sourcing supplies, including swabs, viral transport media, PCR reagents and extraction kits.
“Some of those are very difficult to get. There’s been delays from some of the companies that produce the primers and probes,” he added. “I think it is potentially much more complicated than making personal protective equipment.”

Zhang at Nanjing Liming Bio-products has capacity to make 30,000 PCR testing kits per day, but plans to buy two more machines to boost daily production to 100,000 units. The manufacturing process is complex, he said, while the export logistics are arguably even worse.

“Selling antibody test kits overseas is easy, but no more than five companies in China can sell PCR test kits overseas, because the transport needs an environment at minus 20 degrees Celsius (68 degrees Fahrenheit),” Zhang said. “If companies asked cold chain logistics to transport, the fee is even higher than the goods they can sell.”
China has never been a world leader in diagnostic equipment, with European and American firms generally dominating the market, but the trajectory of the virus means China has become a vital hub for supplies.

At a time of such shortages, however, the cases in Spain and the Philippines confirm that amid the urgent scramble for medical commodities, which have become as scarce and valuable as gold dust this year, the buyer should always beware.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3077314/coronavirus-china-ramps-covid-19-test-kit-exports-amid-global

The U.S. Tried to Build a New Fleet of Ventilators. The Mission Failed.

As the coronavirus spreads, the collapse of the project helps explain America’s acute shortage.

Thirteen years ago, a group of U.S. public health officials came up with a plan to address what they regarded as one of the medical system’s crucial vulnerabilities: a shortage of ventilators.

The breathing-assistance machines tended to be bulky, expensive and limited in number. The plan was to build a large fleet of inexpensive portable devices to deploy in a flu pandemic or another crisis.

Money was budgeted. A federal contract was signed. Work got underway.

And then things suddenly veered off course. A multibillion-dollar maker of medical devices bought the small California company that had been hired to design the new machines. The project ultimately produced zero ventilators.

That failure delayed the development of an affordable ventilator by at least half a decade, depriving hospitals, states and the federal government of the ability to stock up. The federal government started over with another company in 2014, whose ventilator was approved only last year and whose products have not yet been delivered.

Today, with the coronavirus ravaging America’s health care system, the nation’s emergency-response stockpile is still waiting on its first shipment. The scarcity of ventilators has become an emergency, forcing doctors to make life-or-death decisions about who gets to breathe and who does not.

The stalled efforts to create a new class of cheap, easy-to-use ventilators highlight the perils of outsourcing projects with critical public-health implications to private companies; their focus on maximizing profits is not always consistent with the government’s goal of preparing for a future crisis.

“We definitely saw the problem,” said Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, who ran the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 2009 to 2017. “We innovated to try and get a solution. We made really good progress, but it doesn’t appear to have resulted in the volume that we needed.”

The project — code-named Aura — came in the wake of a parade of near-miss pandemics: SARS, MERS, bird flu and swine flu.

Federal officials decided to re-evaluate their strategy for the next public health emergency. They considered vaccines, antiviral drugs, protective gear and ventilators, the last line of defense for patients suffering respiratory failure. The federal government’s Strategic National Stockpile had full-service ventilators in its warehouses, but not in the quantities that would be needed to combat a major pandemic.
established a new division, the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, with a mandate to prepare medical responses to chemical, biological and nuclear attacks, as well as infectious diseases.

Coronavirus: Philippines apologises for saying Chinese test kits were inaccurate

Products donated by Beijing ‘on a par’ with those provided by the World Health Organisation, health department says

Philippines’ undersecretary for health had earlier claimed the kits were only 40 per cent accurate

The Philippines’ health department on Sunday apologised for comments it made a day earlier that two batches of coronavirus test kits provided by China were substandard.

Undersecretary for health Maria Rosario Vergeire said on Saturday that some of the kits made by BGI Group and Sansure Biotech were only 40 per cent accurate in diagnosing Covid-19 and that some of them would have to be discarded as a result.
China’s embassy in Manila rejected those accusations, saying the kits complied with World Health Organisation standards and that they had played “a significant role” in enabling the Philippine government to deal with the Covid-19 epidemic.
“The quality of the 2,000 test kits from BGI Group, and 100,000 nucleic acid test kits from Sansure Biotech … is very good and there does not exist any accuracy problem,” it said.

The embassy described the health department’s comments as irresponsible and said they could lead to public misunderstanding and disturb cooperative efforts in fighting the disease.

The Philippines on Sunday apologised for the comments and acknowledged that the quality of the test kits did meet global standards.

“The Department of Health wishes to clarify that the initial 2,000 BGI RT-PCR test kits and the 100,000 Sansure RT-PCR test kits donated by the Chinese government have been assessed by the RITM to be on a par with test kits provided by the World Health Organisation,” it said.

Chinese tabloid Global Times said in a commentary piece on Sunday that Beijing should improve its quality control with regards to exports of medical equipment and not cover for firms that produce substandard products.

But it also called for nations to remain calm and not politicise the issue. Foreign governments should buy products only from companies recommended by the Chinese embassy in their jurisdiction, it said.

The dispute between the China and the Philippines came just a day after Chinese biotech company Shenzhen Bioeasy Biotechnology promised to replace a batch of substandard test kits it had provided to Spain.

The Spanish Society of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Microbiology said earlier that Bioeasy’s nose swabs had an accuracy rate of less than 30 per cent.
In its defence, the Chinese embassy in Madrid said Bioeasy was not on an approved vendor list agreed by Beijing and Madrid.

Meanwhile, the Dutch health ministry said on Saturday it had recalled 600,000 of the 1.3 million face masks manufactured in China because they failed to meet safety requirements.

Tests found that the masks – some of which had already been distributed to hospitals – failed to close over the face properly and had defective filters. Agence France-Presse reported.

Despite the occasional hiccup, China continues to ship its medical supplies and expertise around the world in support of the global battle against Covid-19.
On Saturday, a team of 15 experts and 17.5 tonnes of medical supplies set off for Britain, which is facing a growing caseload of infections that includes Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Prince Charles.

Beijing also dispatched medical teams and supplies to Laos and Pakistan over the weekend, while others are already working in Iran, Iraq, Cambodia, Italy and Serbia.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3077459/coronavirus-philippines-apologises-saying-chinese-test-kits

Coronavirus: Singapore PM calls for end to US-China blame game, wants to see leadership from Trump administration

Lee Hsien Loong, speaking in an interview with CNN, said that the back and forth between the US and China was ‘not going to help us solve the problem sooner’

The Singaporean PM suggested that countries may turn elsewhere if American leadership was not forthcoming

Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said on Sunday it would be a pity if the United States failed to put to use its immense expertise, soft power and resources to lead global efforts to overcome the “grave challenge to mankind” posed by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Speaking in a live interview with CNN, the Southeast Asian city state’s leader also decried the US-China blame game that has erupted in recent weeks over the outbreak, saying it was “not going to help us solve the problem sooner”.

The comments by the Singaporean leader come as US President Donald Trump’s administration remains mired in criticism over its fractured response to the crisis, with few countries looking to the American leader or his top officials for guidance on dealing with the pandemic.

Instead, the fastidious approaches wielded by the likes of Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea in testing and tracking down infected people are being seen as instructive for the rest of the world.

China, which is slowly recovering after bearing the early brunt of the outbreak, has meanwhile started to assert a leadership role by doling out donations of medical supplies to dozens of its trading partners.

Lee, speaking to CNN’s Fareed Zakaria by video link, said he wanted to see American leadership of the situation.

“Yes, of course. You have the resources, you have the science, you have the influence, you have the soft power, and you have the track record of dealing with these problems convincingly and successfully, and in the greater good of many countries, not just the US,” Lee said.

“It’s a pity not to put those resources to work now to deal with this very grave challenge to mankind”.

The trading of barbs and insults between Washington and China over who was to blame for the pandemic was a “most unfortunate situation”, Lee said.

“Under the best of circumstances there’s going to be a very difficult challenge for mankind. But if the US and China are swapping insults and blaming one another for inventing the virus and letting it loose on the world, I don’t think that that is going to help us solve the problem sooner,” he said.

Lee – whose country has emerged in recent years as one of Washington’s most important strategic partners in Southeast Asia – signalled that countries may turn elsewhere if American leadership was not forthcoming in the effort to contain the virus.

“The world has greatly benefited from American leadership in situations like this for decades,” Lee said. But if “America is in a different mode, well, we will get by and I think other configurations will eventually work out but it would be a loss,” the prime minister said.

Asked about the continued rhetoric by the likes of the US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo that China’s opacity and throttling of whistle-blowers in the early days of the outbreak was in some way to blame for the health crisis, Lee said he did not believe that “one can say this would not have happened if only the Chinese [had] done the right thing”.

“You look at the way the outbreak has continued, grown and spread in many countries. They don’t have the Chinese government and yet they have not found it easy to keep the outbreak under control in their country.”

While Singapore has done far better than some of its neighbours in containing the outbreak – the city state had 844 confirmed cases and three fatalities as of Sunday – Lee said his government was under “no illusions that we have won”.

“I would hesitate to talk about success because we are right in the midst of a battle which is intensifying,” the 68-year-old leader said. Lee also touched on the economic impact of the pandemic, saying he did not expect the situation to normalise until “people gain confidence that they have a hold on the virus [and] that we can resume normal socialising, normal travelling and normal human intercourse”.

Lee said it could be several years before the virus runs its course throughout the world “unless something happens to abort that process”.

There are expectations that Lee, in power since 2004, may soon call a snap election in the midst of the pandemic to secure a fresh mandate to deal with the economic turmoil. Preliminary forecasts suggest the trade-reliant economy could experience its worst ever recession this year.

Asked if the crisis would compel him to postpone his well-publicised plan to step down some time after the next general election, Lee said he was focused on the task at hand. “This crisis keeps my hands full. Let’s just focus on that for now,” he said.

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3077479/coronavirus-singapore-pm-calls-end-us-china-blame-game

Australian prime minister Scott Morrison has announced a AU$1,500 [$921 USD] per fortnight “job keeper” payment to businesses.

The payment, made per employee, will last for at least six months.

The payment will be made to businesses, to keep employees on their payroll.
There will be no higher payment for higher earners.
That will work out to about 70% of the average wage.
Businesses will have to prove they are paying it to their employees.
The partner income test for Centrelink payments has increased from $48,000 to $79,000 a year.

The new measures will cost about $130bn (Guardian)

Astrophysicist gets magnets stuck up nose while inventing coronavirus device

An Australian astrophysicist has been admitted to hospital after getting four magnets stuck up his nose in an attempt to invent a device that stops people touching their faces during the coronavirus outbreak.

Dr Daniel Reardon, a research fellow at Melbourne’s Swinburne University, was building a necklace that sounds an alarm on facial contact, when the mishap occurred on Thursday night.

The 27 year-old astrophysicist, who studies pulsars and gravitational waves, said he was trying to liven up the boredom of self-isolation with the four powerful neodymium magnets.

“I have some electronic equipment but really no experience or expertise in building circuits or things,” he told Guardian Australia.

“I had a part that detects magnetic fields. I thought that if I built a circuit that could detect the magnetic field, and we wore magnets on our wrists, then it could set off an alarm if you brought it too close to your face. A bit of boredom in isolation made me think of that.”

However, the academic realised the electronic part he had did the opposite – and would only complete a circuit when there was no magnetic field present.

“I accidentally invented a necklace that buzzes continuously unless you move your hand close to your face,” he said.

“After scrapping that idea, I was still a bit bored, playing with the magnets. It’s the same logic as clipping pegs to your ears – I clipped them to my earlobes and then clipped them to my nostril and things went downhill pretty quickly when I clipped the magnets to my other nostril.”

Reardon said he placed two magnets inside his nostrils, and two on the outside. When he removed the magnets from the outside of his nose, the two inside stuck together. Unfortunately, the researcher then attempted to use his remaining magnets to remove them. (Guardian)

:lol:

There was discussion, yesterday I think, about Taiwan, WHO, and Chinese politics. Watch the video in this story:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/senior-who-adviser-appears-to-dodge-question-on-taiwans-covid-19-response

All those people going to church need to read this LA Times article detailing what happened to a church choir in Washington:

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/

Choir practice turns fatal. Airborne coronavirus strongly suspected

By Richard ReadSeattle Bureau Chief

March 29, 20207:34 PM

MOUNT VERNON, Wash. — With the coronavirus quickly spreading in Washington state in early March, leaders of the Skagit Valley Chorale debated whether to go ahead with weekly rehearsal. The virus was already killing people in the Seattle area, about an hour’s drive to the south.

But Skagit County hadn’t reported any cases, schools and businesses remained open, and prohibitions on large gatherings had yet to be announced. On March 6, Adam Burdick, the choir’s conductor, informed the 121 members in an email that amid the “stress and strain of concerns about the virus,” practice would proceed as scheduled at Mount Vernon Presbyterian Church.

“I’m planning on being there this Tuesday March 10, and hoping many of you will be, too,” he wrote.

Sixty singers showed up. A greeter offered hand sanitizer at the door, and members refrained from the usual hugs and handshakes. “It seemed like a normal rehearsal, except that choirs are huggy places,” Burdick recalled. “We were making music and trying to keep a certain distance between each other.”

After 2½ hours, the singers parted ways at 9 p.m. Nearly three weeks later, 45 have been diagnosed with COVID-19 or ill with the symptoms, at least three have been hospitalized, and two are dead. The outbreak has stunned county health officials, who have concluded that the virus was almost certainly transmitted through the air from one or more people without symptoms.

“That’s all we can think of right now,” said Polly Dubbel, a county communicable disease and environmental health manager. In interviews with the Los Angeles Times, eight people who were at the rehearsal said that nobody there was coughing or sneezing or appeared ill.

Everybody came with their own sheet music and avoided direct physical contact. Some members helped set up or remove folding chairs. A few helped themselves to mandarins that had been put out on a table in back. Experts said the choir outbreak is consistent with a growing body of evidence that the virus can be transmitted through aerosols — particles smaller than 5 micrometers that can float in the air for minutes or longer.

The World Health Organization has downplayed the possibility of transmission in aerosols, stressing that the virus is spread through much larger “respiratory droplets,” which are emitted when an infected person coughs or sneezes and quickly fall to a surface.

But a study published March 17 in the New England Journal of Medicine found that when the virus was suspended in a mist under laboratory conditions it remained “viable and infectious” for three hours — though researchers have said that time period would probably be no more than a half-hour in real-world conditions. One of the authors of that study, Jamie Lloyd-Smith, a UCLA infectious disease researcher, said it’s possible that the forceful breathing action of singing dispersed viral particles in the church room that were widely inhaled.

“One could imagine that really trying to project your voice would also project more droplets and aerosols,” he said. With three-quarters of the choir members testing positive for the virus or showing symptoms of infection, the outbreak would be considered a “super-spreading event,” he said.

Linsey Marr, an environmental engineer at Virginia Tech and an expert on airborne transmission of viruses, said some people happen to be especially good at exhaling fine material, producing 1,000 times more than others. Marr said that the choir outbreak should be seen as a powerful warning to the public. “This may help people realize that, hey, we really need to be careful,” she said.


…cont’d in next post

2nd part of LA Times article:

The Skagit Valley Chorale draws its members from across northwest Washington and often sells out its winter and spring concerts at the 650-seat McIntyre Hall in Mount Vernon.

Amateur singers interested in choral music tend to be older, but the group includes some young adults. Last year, Burdick worked some hip-hop into one number. The next big performance on the group’s schedule was in late April, peak tourist season, when the annual Skagit Valley Tulip Festival attracts more than a million people to view brilliant hues in meadows surrounding Mount Vernon. The festival would soon be canceled, but nothing had been announced yet and the choir was continuing to prepare.

Carolynn Comstock and her husband, Jim Owen, carpooled to the March 10 practice from the nearby city of Anacortes with their friends Ruth and Mark Backlund. Carolynn and Jim, who ran a home remodeling business together, had been singing with the choir for 15 years and thought of it as a centering force in their lives. They had introduced the Backlunds to the choir.

The two couples entered the rented church hall — roughly the size of a volleyball court — and offered their hands for the disinfectant. Cushioned metal chairs extended in six rows of 20, with about a foot between chairs and one aisle down the center. There were twice as many seats as people. Comstock, a soprano, and Owen, a tenor, took their usual seats beside each other in the third row. The rows toward the front and center filled up around them. Burdick, 49, stood facing his choir, with an accompanist to his right seated at a grand piano.

Given the anxiety over the coronavirus, the conductor decided to lead off with a piece called “Sing On.” The singers inhaled deeply, and sang the chorus with gusto: “Sing on! Whatever comes your way, sing on! Sing on!” The choir moved on to other numbers, including a popular spiritual piece written by gospel legend Thomas A. Dorsey: “If we ever needed the Lord before, we sure do need Him now.” At one point the members broke into two groups, each standing around separate pianos to sing. When it was time to leave, Burdick’s wife, Lorraine, a contralto who also sang professionally, refrained from her custom of embracing friends. Instead, she curtsied her goodbyes.


Three days later, Comstock felt chills. A sweater didn’t help. She took her temperature: 99.3. She and Owen canceled their plans for dinner that night at the Backlunds’ house. At 9 p.m., she got a text from Ruth Backlund. Ruth, 72, and Mark, 73, had fevers. Burdick woke up the next day, March 14, with a fever. As his temperature rose to 103, he began hearing from other choir singers. They felt fatigued and achy. Some had fevers, coughs and shortness of breath they had heard were telltale symptoms of COVID-19. Some had nausea and diarrhea.

On March 15, Comstock, 62, noticed something odd when she made pasta. She couldn’t taste the sauce, a spicy Italian sausage. She would soon learn that loss of taste and smell was a common symptom too. When Owen, 66, first felt sick that day, he found that his temperature was below normal, a symptom that continued. The same day, the Backlunds tested negative for influenza. Their clinic sent out their samples for coronavirus tests, which would come back four days later showing they both had COVID-19.

On March 17, a choir member alerted Skagit County Public Health about the outbreak. Working from the choir’s membership roster, a dozen health officers scrambled for three days to contain the outbreak. They called every member, determining who had attended the rehearsal. They asked each person with symptoms to list their close contacts during the 24 hours before illness set in. Then they called those people, telling anyone who felt sick to quarantine themselves. “We think it was just a really super-unfortunate, high-risk occurrence,” said Dubbel, the county health official.

Mark Backlund felt himself slipping, but not as badly as a friend a decade younger, a runner, who was rushed to the hospital with pneumonia. Both men would ultimately recover. On March 18, Burdick received a message from Nancy “Nicki” Hamilton, an 83-year-old soprano, known for her political activism and tales of international travel. She was worried about a fellow member. Three days later, he received another call. Hamilton had been rushed to the hospital soon after he had talked with her and now she was dead.

Word quickly spread among the choir members, many of them sick and left to grieve alone in their homes. Health officials said all 28 choir members who were tested for COVID-19 were found to be infected. The other 17 with symptoms never got tested, either because tests were not available or — like Comstock and Owen — the singers were under the impression that only people in dire condition were eligible. The youngest of those sickened was 31, but they averaged 67, according to the health department.

In their split-level home, Burdick and his wife kept distance between themselves for a week. But Lorraine got sick anyway. The Burdicks had been heartened to hear that another woman in the hospital — an alto in her 80s — seemed to be getting better. But this past Friday, the conductor got another call. She had died. And another woman, a tenor, had been rushed to the hospital. Others felt the disease waning. Fifteen days after the rehearsal, Comstock squirted shampoo into her hand and experienced an odd and pleasing sensation. It smelled. Like coconut.


Marr, the Virginia Tech researcher, said that the choir outbreak reminded her of a classic case study in the spread of infectious disease.

In 1977, an Alaska Airlines flight returned to Homer, Alaska, after experiencing engine trouble and sat on the tarmac there for four hours with the ventilation system off. Of the 49 passengers on board, 35 developed flu symptoms and five were hospitalized. Researchers ultimately traced the outbreak to a woman who felt fine when she boarded but later became ill. The case jolted epidemiologists into the realization that influenza could spread through the air. Research has already shown that the coronavirus is nearly twice as contagious as influenza and far more deadly. There is still much to learn about the choir outbreak, starting with the original source of the virus.

Dubbel, the county official, said she hoped that a study would be conducted someday to determine how the infection spread. But for now, her team is swamped trying to contain additional outbreaks. Marr said that researchers will have lots of questions for choir members. Did the singers sit in customary seats, allowing them to recall their locations that evening and help reconstruct the layout of the room and its occupants. Might the 15 people who did not get sick have sat together?

By Sunday, 99 people had tested positive in Skagit County. It could be months before the choir meets again. The Backlunds, though, have started singing again — an alto and a bass together in their living room. The couple, and Comstock and Owen, would like to know if they have antibodies against the virus, so it would be safe for them to deliver meals and find other ways to help as the infection spreads. Comstock marveled at the randomness of it all. “It’s just normal random people doing things that they love to do, and all of a sudden some people are dead,” she said. “It’s very sobering.”

@Qtinfo , @rosered55 , @“Cardinal Fang” @katliamom , just read that NewYorker article…

Oh. My. God. Chotiner may be an assassin. But, to paraphrase assassin Mary Morstan from “Sherlock”:

People like Epstein need to be killed. That’s why there’s people like Chotiner…

What an awful awful man, and awful awful scientist.

This is a good searchable site, you can check by state, hospital data, bed capacity, ventilator need, expected peak in each state …

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Richard Burr was one of the three senators voted no on the Stock Act. It’s probably not the first time he’s done this type of trade.

I bet they call themselves pro-lifers, too. Shouldn’t they care a bit more about the lives of their congregations?

In the news:

Johnson & Johnson Announces a Lead Vaccine Candidate for COVID-19; Landmark New Partnership with U.S. Department of Health & Human Services; and Commitment to Supply One Billion Vaccines Worldwide for Emergency Pandemic Use
Johnson & Johnson and BARDA Together Commit More than $1 Billion to Novel Coronavirus Vaccine Research and Development; Company Expects to Initiate Phase 1 Human Clinical Studies of Vaccine Candidate at Latest by September 2020
Johnson & Johnson Will Establish New U.S. Vaccine Manufacturing Capabilities and Additional Production Capacity Outside the U.S. to Begin Production at Risk to Help Ensure Global Vaccine Supply
NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J., March 30, 2020 – Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) today announced the selection of a lead COVID-19 vaccine candidate from constructs it has been working on since January 2020; the significant expansion of the existing partnership between the Janssen Pharmaceutical Companies of Johnson & Johnson and the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA); and the rapid scaling of the Company’s manufacturing capacity with the goal of providing global supply of more than one billion doses of a vaccine. The Company expects to initiate human clinical studies of its lead vaccine candidate at the latest by September 2020 and anticipates the first batches of a COVID-19 vaccine could be available for emergency use authorization in early 2021, a substantially accelerated timeframe in comparison to the typical vaccine development process.

Through a landmark new partnership, BARDA, which is part of the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR) at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and Johnson & Johnson together have committed more than $1 billion of investment to co-fund vaccine research, development, and clinical testing. Johnson & Johnson will use its validated vaccine platform and is allocating resources, including personnel and infrastructure globally, as needed, to focus on these efforts. Separately, BARDA and the Company have provided additional funding that will enable expansion of their ongoing work to identify potential antiviral treatments against the novel coronavirus.
As part of its commitment, Johnson & Johnson is also expanding the Company’s global manufacturing capacity, including through the establishment of new U.S. vaccine manufacturing capabilities and scaling up capacity in other countries. The additional capacity will assist in the rapid production of a vaccine and will enable the supply of more than one billion doses of a safe and effective vaccine globally. The Company plans to begin production at risk imminently and is committed to bringing an affordable vaccine to the public on a not-for-profit basis for emergency pandemic use.
Alex Gorsky, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Johnson & Johnson, said, “The world is facing an urgent public health crisis and we are committed to doing our part to make a COVID-19 vaccine available and affordable globally as quickly as possible. As the world’s largest healthcare company, we feel a deep responsibility to improve the health of people around the world every day. Johnson & Johnson is well positioned through our combination of scientific expertise, operational scale and financial strength to bring our resources in collaboration with others to accelerate the fight against this pandemic.”
Paul Stoffels, M.D., Vice Chairman of the Executive Committee and Chief Scientific Officer, Johnson & Johnson, said, “We greatly value the U.S. government’s confidence and support for our R&D efforts. Johnson & Johnson’s global team of experts has ramped up our research and development processes to unprecedented levels, and our teams are working tirelessly alongside BARDA, scientific partners, and global health authorities. We are very pleased to have identified a lead vaccine candidate from the constructs we have been working on since January. We are moving on an accelerated timeline toward Phase 1 human clinical trials at the latest by September 2020 and, supported by the global production capability that we are scaling up in parallel to this testing, we expect a vaccine could be ready for emergency use in early 2021.”

Epstein is not a scientist. He’s a lawyer.

No, as it turned out, he just played one on TV. But I should have put “scholar”.

If its the woman in the Atlantic article this left out that she visited a crowded medical facility where people were obviously very ill.

John Prine is in critical condition with COVID-19. So sad.

I watched some of the livestream service of the church service in Florida.

From the article: <<<“Browne posted a livestream of the services on YouTube, showing the sizable crowd. Howard-Browne said attendees were practicing “social distancing, or whatever” though the crowd appeared to be dense.>>>

The pastor was chuckling when he said that, like it was a joke. There was no distancing.