It is unfortunately a pretty good chance that if you walked around the many hot spots in the US that you would be exposed, actually. Think about NYC right now. My son visited a college 2 1/2 weeks ago that had a professor that was diagnosed a day or two later. Thankfully my son didn’t get sick. My husband works with two people who were diagnosed and he isn’t sure when he was around them but he was around people who were around them in the last 1 1/2 weeks we think. We are hoping he is fine. My SIL toured Harvard with students the day before they had official cases of the virus and closed down the campus. My mother appears to have the virus right now and my father seems to be the one who gave it to her. I don’t think the chance of being exposed is low. Around here I think the chance is pretty high. Not as high as a doctor treating people who have it, but not a low chance.
yeah, better than wasting human lives and having the economy get ruined, etc. Not that masks along would have stopped things but we would be way better off, I believe, if we had all had them and worn them daily from the start.
I couldn’t get the GenomeWeb article @cinnamon1212 posted without an account, but here is an explanation of the genetic research project written for lay people: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/how-sick-will-coronavirus-make-you-answer-may-be-your-genes#
Thanks, @cinnamon1212 . Fascinating and encouraging that they will likely have results within months. Then we will have a better idea of which healthy people under 65 are at risk.
DH says that with some people of all ages, their immune system overreacts to Covid, pumping out this type of neutrophil which is the wrong response and very destructive. If we can figure out the genetic basis of this reaction, we would know more about who needs to be very carefully isolated. They will also look at variations in the gene that codes for ACE2 which the virus uses to get into airway cells.
There is talk that people who get that cascade and end up dying who have a t-cell defect. What a t-cell defect is and how it might make a person more susceptible to dying is beyond my level of health knowledge.
Going along with that:
"TheBigChef wrote: »
Regarding those Westchester numbers I posted - 19 deaths out of 9326 positives makes for a .2% death rate. In comparison, NYC has had 790 deaths out of 36,000 positives, for a 2.2% death rate. I have no idea what could account for such a huge difference.
How many who got sick went to NYC and count in those numbers? Maybe exposure to pollution is tied to outcome (from car exhausts in the city??)"
The article I linked says out of 378 Westchester residents hospitalized, 213 were in county and the rest (165) were in NYC hospitals. As NYC gets more and more overwhelmed, I suspect few if any Westchester cases will get transferred there.
First of all, we don’t know how fast the droplets will be “sink” to the ground. It depends on humidity and temperature. This particular virus could “float” in air for a couple of hours under some conditions.
Secondly, not everyone can stay 6 feet away from everyone else at all times. In crowded places including supermarkets, elevators, or on buses and trains, you generally can’t avoid running into other people.
Thirdly, not addressing your comments but more generally, asking only infected people to wear masks is a stupid idea in the current environment. Many of the infected people don’t even know they’re infected, but they’re still contagious. Even the infected may not want to wear the masks because other people would likely avoid them, or worse. If everyone wears it, there’s no such stigma, and the odds of virus transmission between two wearers are even less than if only one of them wears the mask.
Part 1 of 2
Harsh measures, including stay-at-home orders and restaurant closures, are contributing to rapid drops in the numbers of fevers — a signal symptom of most coronavirus infections — recorded in states across the country, according to intriguing new data produced by a medical technology firm.
At least 248 million Americans in at least 29 states have been told to stay at home. It had seemed nearly impossible for public health officials to know how effective this measure and others have been in slowing the coronavirus.
But the new data offer evidence, in real time, that tight social-distancing restrictions may be working, potentially reducing hospital overcrowding and lowering death rates, experts said.
The company, Kinsa Health, which produces internet-connected thermometers, first created a national map of fever levels on March 22 and was able to spot the trend within a day. Since then, data from the health departments of New York State and Washington State have buttressed the finding, making it clear that social distancing is saving lives.
The trend has become so obvious that on Sunday, President Trump extended until the end of April his recommendation that Americans stay in lockdown. Mr. Trump had hoped to lift restrictions by Easter and send Americans back to work.
“That would have been the worst possible Easter surprise,” said Dr. Peter J. Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine in Houston, who added that he thought the Kinsa predictions were based on “very robust technology.”
Kinsa’s thermometers upload the user’s temperature readings to a centralized database; the data enable the company to track fevers across the United States.
Owners of Kinsa’s thermometers can type other symptoms into a cellphone app after taking their temperature. The app offers basic advice on whether they should seek medical attention.
Kinsa has more than one million thermometers in circulation and has been getting up to 162,000 daily temperature readings since Covid-19 began spreading in the country.
The company normally uses that data to track the spread of influenza. Since 2018, when it had more than 500,000 thermometers distributed, its predictions have routinely been two to three weeks ahead of those of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which gathers flu data on patient symptoms from doctors’ offices and hospitals.
To identify clusters of coronavirus infections, Kinsa recently adapted its software to detect spikes of “atypical fever” that do not correlate with historical flu patterns and are likely attributable to the coronavirus.
As of noon Wednesday, the company’s live map showed fevers holding steady or dropping almost universally across the country, with two prominent exceptions.
One was in a broad swath of New Mexico, where the governor had issued stay-at-home orders only the day before, and in adjacent counties in Southern Colorado.
All farmers markets in Los Angeles will be suspended
CNN
All farmers markets in Los Angeles will be temporarily suspended, Mayor Eric Garcetti announced at a news conference today.
The farmers markets have become too crowded, he said.
The city will require all farmers markets to submit plans immediately that enforce physical distancing and ensure safe operations. Garcetti explained that it will likely result in one entrance and one exit with people safely lined up to enter.
He reminded Los Angeles residents that if there are too many people to simply wait before going.
Rent the Runway lays off retail workers after store closures due to coronavirus
From CNN’s Kate Trafecante
Designer clothing rental company Rent the Runway is laying off retail staff during the coronavirus pandemic.
In a statement, the company said it has had “to make some difficult decisions in the short term to thrive in the long term which include temporary store closures and retail role eliminations.”
Rent the Runway primarily operates online, but has brick and mortar locations in New York, Chicago, Washington, DC, and San Francisco.
The company did not provide CNN with the number of employees affected, but did say it would continue to provide health insurance coverage.
"While we don’t have a sense of how long our business will be impacted, we remain committed to serving and supporting our employees and customers during this challenging time,” the company added.
[ All dressed up and nowhere to go?]
First coronavirus cases reported in Los Angeles homeless population
From CNN’s Cheri Mossburg
Two people experiencing homelessness in Los Angeles are infected with coronavirus – the first known cases among the homeless population in the county, according to Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer.
Additionally, a person who works in an L.A. County homeless shelter has also contracted the virus.
Gov. Gavin Newsom previously announced a homeless person had tested positive in California, according to the state’s Department of Public Health. It’s unclear where that person lives.
Ferrer also announced seven additional deaths and 342 new cases in Los Angeles County overnight. There are 2,474 confirmed Covid-19 cases in Los Angeles County, Ferrer said.
Nearly 60,000 people were counted as homeless in Los Angeles County in 2019 — a 12% increase over the previous year.
“First of all, we don’t know how fast the droplets will be “sink” to the ground. It depends on humidity and temperature. This particular virus could “float” in air for a couple of hours under some conditions.”
But if people walking around are asymptotic - what droplets are they producing? That’s what I keep wondering. If I go for a walk outdoors with my friends (not in my household) and we maintain a 6 ft distance, wear winter gloves, and then come home and wash hands - and no one coughed or sneezed once- what’s the risk?
78% of Americans are under stay-at-home orders
CNN
At least 256,008,318 Americans, or 78% of the US population, are under stay-at-home or shelter-in-place orders, according to a CNN count.
The US Census Bureau estimates the total US population at 328,239,523
This count includes local city and county orders as well. This count includes local city and county orders as well. The numbers were tallied using census data.
First US service member dies from coronavirus
From CNN’s Ryan Browne
The first US service member has died from Covid-19, the US military announced Monday.
An army national guardsman from New Jersey died on Saturday, the Department of Defense said in a statement. The guardsman had been hospitalized since March 21.
“Today is a sad day for the Department of Defense as we have lost our first American service member — active, reserve or Guard — to Coronavirus,” Secretary of Defense Mark Esper said in the statement.
“This is a stinging loss for our military community, and our condolences go out to his family, friends, civilian co-workers and the entire National Guard community. The news of this loss strengthens our resolve to work ever more closely with our interagency partners to stop the spread of COVID-19,” Esper added.
Trump says US has received supplies from other countries, including medical equipment from Russia
From CNN’s Maegan Vazquez
President Trump said Monday that the United States has received donations from other countries to deal with the spread of the coronavirus, including supplies from Russia and China.
“China sent us some stuff, which was terrific. Russia sent us a very, very large planeload of things, medical equipment which was very nice,” Trump told reporters in the White House Rose Garden.
He added: “Other countries sent us things that I was very surprised at, very happily surprised.”
Part 2
The second was in a ring of Louisiana parishes surrounding New Orleans, but 100 to 150 miles away from it. That presumably was caused by the outward local spread of the explosion of infections in New Orleans, which officials believe was set off by crowding during Mardi Gras.
By Friday morning, fevers in every county in the country were on a downward trend, depicted in four shades of blue on the map.
Fevers were dropping especially rapidly in the West, from Utah to California and from Washington down to Arizona; in many Western counties, the numbers of people reporting high fevers fell by almost 20 percent. The numbers were also declining rapidly in Maine.
The parts of New Mexico and Colorado that had been slightly “warm” on Wednesday were in light blue, indicating that they were cooling. So were the Louisiana counties.
Coronavirus Live Updates: Despite Pushback, Trump Suggests Testing No Longer an Issue
As of Monday morning, more than three-quarters of the country was deep blue. A separate display of the collective national fever trend, which had spiked upward to a peak on March 17, had fallen so far that it was actually below the band showing historical flu fever trends — which meant that the lockdown has cut not only Covid-19 transmission but flu transmission, too.
“I’m very impressed by this,” said Dr. William Schaffner, a preventive medicine expert at Vanderbilt University. “It looks like a way to prove that social distancing works.”
“But it does shows that it takes the most restrictive measures to make a real difference,” he added.
For some hard-hit cities, Kinsa also sent The New York Times fever data plotted on a timeline of restrictions enacted by mayors or governors.
Those graphs, Dr. Schaffner noted, showed that simply declaring a state of emergency or limiting the size of public gatherings did not affect the number of people reporting fevers.
But closing restaurants and bars and asking people to stay in their homes produced dramatic results in all three cities.
For example, in Manhattan, reports of fevers steadily rose during early March, despite a declaration of emergency on March 7 and an order on March 12 that public gatherings be restricted to less than 500 people.
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The turning point began on March 16, the day schools were closed. Bars and restaurants were closed the next day, and a stay-at-home order took effect on March 20. By March 23, new fevers in Manhattan were below their March 1 levels.
Last Friday, New York State’s own data showed the same trend that Kinsa’s fever readings had spotted five days earlier.
The state tracks hospitalization rates, not fevers. So many patients were being admitted to New York City hospitals, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said, that until March 20, hospitalization rates were doubling roughly every two days.
By Tuesday, the hospitalization rate took four days to double. This is roughly what the fever readings predicted, said Nita Nehru, a company spokeswoman.
Hospitalizations occur several days after symptoms like fever appear. “The cases being counted now had fevers five to 10 days ago,” she said.
The slowing of new hospital admissions “suggests that our density-control measures may be working,” Mr. Cuomo said on Wednesday.
“People say these requirements — no restaurants, no nonessential workers — are burdensome,” he said. “And they are burdensome. But they are effective, and they are necessary. The evidence suggests that they have slowed our hospitalizations, and that is everything.”
Shown the Kinsa data, Dr. Howard Zucker, New York State’s health commissioner, called it “a great example of technology being able to show what we think we’re experiencing — and it’s consistent with our data.”
On Friday, the University of California, San Francisco, said its hospitals were not facing a huge surge of patients and gave the credit to the strict shelter-in-place orders imposed by Mayor London Breed on March 16.
On Sunday, Washington State also reported a downward trend following the imposition of its restrictions, based on data from deaths, coronavirus tests and information about people’s movements from the Facebook apps on their cellphones.
“People need to know their sacrifices are helping,” said Inder Singh, founder of Kinsa. “I’ve had friends text or call and say: ‘Inder, this seems overblown. I’m sitting at home by myself, I don’t know anyone who’s sick, why am I doing this?’”
Kinsa’s tracking of fevers in Miami-Dade County in Florida showed an even more pronounced trend, and the company had tried to raise the alarm.
In early March, Florida beaches and bars were packed with spring break revelers, despite warnings that crowding was dangerous. On Kinsa maps that normally look for flu trends, fever levels were soaring.
Mr. Singh tried to get the word out, but the San Francisco-based company is relatively obscure and almost no one paid attention.
”It was so frustrating,” said Ms. Nehru, the company spokeswoman. “For three days from about March 19 on, Inder was calling local government folks in Florida, The Tampa Bay Times and other papers. The government did absolutely nothing.”
“Plus, we were getting pushback on social media,” she said. “People were saying, ‘The testing doesn’t show this, you know, is your data wrong?’ and ‘Could it be that you were just selling more thermometers in Florida?’”
On March 12, a state of emergency had been declared, but according to Kinsa’s data, fevers were continuing to rise. Closing local schools on March 16 had little effect.
But on March 18, Miami’s bars and restaurants were closed, and within two days reports of fevers started to drop sharply, according to Kinsa’s data.
But the damage may have been done. Now Florida is reporting that coronavirus cases are soaring, and its hospitals expect to be overwhelmed.
The dropping fever trend does not mean cases or hospitalizations will also drop immediately, Ms. Nehru pointed out.
Confirmed cases will keep going up for days, because people do not always go for a Covid-19 test the same day they feel feverish. Besides, many states are doing more tests every day.
The C.D.C. has declined to comment whenever it is asked about the company.
Mr. Singh said he had approached the C.D.C. about using his data as part of its own flu surveillance, but agency officers had insisted on him giving up the rights to his data if they did, and he refused.
Dr. Schaffner, an adviser to the C.D.C. on flu surveillance, said he was disappointed to hear that and would look into it.
The refinement Kinsa made on March 22 was to add “trends” — a map showing whether all fevers were increasing, decreasing or holding steady.
“Finally, people are asking us for our data,” Mr. Singh said Monday. “We’re talking with six states about them distributing more thermometers. People understand the value now.”
Trump and Fauci discuss likelihood of second outbreak in the fall
From CNN’s Sarah Westwood
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told reporters on Monday that it is likely there will be another coronavirus outbreak in the fall.
“In fact, I would anticipate that that would actually happen,” said Fauci, who is a key member of the White House’s coronavirus task force.
President Trump said he hopes “it doesn’t happen” when asked about a second outbreak.
Trump said the administration was prepared in the event the virus returns after a period of fading over the summer, after social distancing measures.
Fauci echoed that sentiment, saying if the virus returns “in the fall, it would be a totally different ball game.”
He said the differences would include greater testing ability at the beginning of the outbreak as well as better contact tracing when individuals fall ill.
Fauci said the administration’s abilities would be “orders of magnitude better.”
“We have a vaccine that’s on track” for development on an accelerated timeline, Fauci noted.
Nationwide stay at home order is “pretty unlikely,” Trump says
From CNN’s Allie Malloy
President Trump said that while the administration has talked about a potential nationwide stay-at-home order, it is “pretty unlikely at this time.”
Trump told reporters in the Rose Garden Monday that while the administration has “talked about” a nationwide order, similar to those of some states, but said it would be very “tough” to enforce and “not something we wanted to do.”
“If we do that we will let you know, but it’s pretty unlikely at this time,” Trump said, adding he will keep allowing governors to make the calls for their own states.
Trump says he thinks every American who needs a ventilator will have access to one
From CNN’s Maegan Vazquez
President Trump said Monday that he thinks every American who may need a ventilator in the next few weeks will have access to one.
“I do think so, yes,” Trump told a reporter in the White House Rose Garden. “I think we’re going to be in very good shape.”
On Friday, Trump wouldn’t explicitly guarantee that every American who would need a ventilator would have access to one, calling the reporter who asked the question a “wise guy.”
NYC might be more overloaded than Westchester or have more older people or similar. Regardless, remember these aren’t the death rates. Covid-19 generally takes a long time to kill. Those actually dying now were usually sickened a couple of weeks ago or more.
It’s interesting (in a morbid way) looking at the death per capita on worldometer’s site. They don’t have that for the individual states yet - just per country and the world. (That’s not the death rate either since nowhere near the whole population has had the illness yet esp since many who think they have it due to symptoms or contact or whatever still don’t according to the testing being done.)
American Airlines plans to apply for coronavirus aid, offers partial pay for employee leave
CNBC
American Airlines said it will apply for government aid to soften the blow from a record drop in travel demand. The carrier is also offering partial pay to entice workers off its payroll.
The Fort Worth-based airline said it expects about $12 billion of the $50 billion set aside for airlines in a sweeping coronavirus relief bill Congress passed last week. The aid includes $25 billion in grants for passenger airlines in exchange for not furloughing or cutting the pay rates of their employees through Sept. 30. The other half is in loans.
American’s statement that it will apply for the funding is the clearest yet from airlines on the coronavirus aid as executives parse through the details. The rescue package came with some strings attached to it, including equity stakes for the federal government and requirements for carriers to keep paying employees and maintain certain air routes.
Department of Defense watchdog appointed Inspector General for $2 trillion coronavirus stimulus package
The Defense Department’s internal watchdog will serve as newly named chair of The Pandemic Response Accountability Committee, a body created to oversee the roughly $2 trillion stimulus deal that President Donald Trump signed into law last week in response to the economic devastation wrought by the coronavirus outbreak.
Glenn Fine, the acting inspector general of the Department of Defense, was appointed by another committee of IGs assigned by the new law to name a chair.
Fine will oversee a board of fellow inspectors general, all responsible for monitoring their respective departments. They include the Departments of Education, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Justice, Labor, as well as the Treasury, the Small Business Administration and the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration.
Airbnb extends coronavirus cancellation window to May 31, sets aside $250 million to pay hosts for missed stays
Airbnb announced it will allow guests to receive full refunds for any trips starting on or before May 31 that were booked prior to March 14, as the company continues to struggle through the coronavirus’ impact on the travel industry. The company will also set aside $250 million to pay hosts for the missed bookings.
Airbnb announced the decision in a letter sent to hosts in an effort to rebuild Airbnb’s relationship with its partners. Previously, the company had said that it would allow guests to cancel and receive full refunds for trips between March 14 and April 14.
That decision overrode many hosts’ existing cancellation policies that ensured they still received partial payments for those bookings. Many hosts harshly criticized Airbnb for that decision, and several told CNBC that they would be moving their properties onto other websites and into the long-term rental market.
Washington opens up website for people to report businesses violating the state’s stay-at-home order
Washington Governor Jay Inslee said during a press conference on Monday that people and businesses who do not follow the state’s stay-at-home order can face potential criminal charges.
Inslee said his office had received thousands of calls about people and businesses that are not complying with the other. When authorities learn that someone hasn’t followed the order, they will first give the person or business a warning, then the state will use citations or suspend licenses or business permits, and finally, if the first two steps don’t work, those people will be considered for civil or criminal charges, Inslee said, which can amount to a gross misdemeanor.
“Taking people to court is the very last thing that will be considered,” Inslee said. The officials emphasized anyone reporting gatherings in violation should use a form on the state’s coronavirus website, and not call 911 for non-emergencies. “If you see gatherings that are in violation of this order, we’d like you to use your best judgement and decide whether to notify local law enforcement or this site we’ve opened up,” Inslee said. “Citations can be used, and as a last resort, we can arrest people. That’s the last thing we want to do,” Washington State Patrol Chief John Batiste said.
CNBC
Less than two weeks ago (approx., time blurs), Lester Holt did a segment on rural hospitals being ill-equipped and unprepared for something of this magnitude. They specifically showed the hospital and did interviews on Ellenville, NY (Hudson Valley), population ~4,000.
As someone whose only county hospital has a total of 25 beds, I really feel for the more rural areas who are getting inundated with the vacation home people. It’s a rational decision on their part, but still…
Regarding the differences in number of deaths in NYC and Westchester:
“And even if the reporting was all correct, the death rate is not 0.2%. There are many people who unfortunately haven’t reached the critical stage yet.
Today at 6:40 pm”
Agree about the death rate not being correct since some of the Westchester positives will unfortunately die, however the same holds true for NYC. I compared the number of positives to the number of deaths, and there is a huge disparity between NYC and Westchester right now. Maybe in a few days, that will change. Still, we have seen this same anomaly play out in other areas - compare Italy/Spain to Germany. I was just trying to point out something that jumped out at me but I haven’t seen a lot of talk about.
Hockey apparel company sees heavy demand for medical face shields
Hockey gear maker Bauer announced last week that it would shift its production to make face shields for medical workers, and the demand for the product has already surpassed what it can churn out in a month.
Ed Kinnaly, CEO of Peak Achievement Athletics, Bauer’s parent company, said on “Closing Bell” that the business has seen demand for almost 1 million units. Bauer is selling the products to hospitals on a break-even basis, Kinnaly said.
“Demand way outstripping supply at this stage … We turned on production full-speed today. We’re going to be able to produce 20-25,000 units a week, ramping up to about 70,000 units a week later in April,” Kinnaly said. (CNBC)
5:30 pm: Newsom says California has ordered over 100 million N95 masks
California Governor Gavin Newsom said on Monday in an interview with Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg that the state had ordered 101 million N95 masks. The masks are an important piece of protective equipment worn by health workers while treating patents who might have the COVID-19 coronavirus, and have been in short supply as demand surged.
“Let me tell you specifically, as of this morning we have distributed 32.9 million N95 masks. We have ordered 101 million more N95 masks,” Newsom said. “When you hear people talking in the tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands they’re not having an honest conversation with you. We need to be talking in the millions, tens of millions, and in a state as large as ours, hundreds of millions.” Several large California companies have donated N95 masks in response to the coronavirus outbreak. Apple donated 10 million masks, and Facebook donated 700,000 that it had previously stockpiled. Tesla CEO Elon Musk said last week that he planned to donate 250,000 N95 masks to hospitals. (CNBC)
Trump was asked when the US will catch up with South Korea and other countries in terms of testing per capital. “It’s very much on par,” Trump says of the US testing numbers.
So, Is testing in the US on par with other countries?
My colleague Adam Gabbatt answers this one:
“The US, as of Monday afternoon, had conducted about 287 tests per 100,000 people in the US (with huge variations depending on the county, city and state). This compares to 709 per 100,000 in South Korea and 600 per 100,000 in Italy.” (Guardian)
I hope you guys got to just watch Chris Cuomo interview his brother Governor Andrew Cuomo, right now on CNN. It was better than late night comedy - please watch even if you hate Cuomo and hate democrats and despise CNN! Hilarious. Andrew Cuomo wrecked Chris on his show, as my kids would say!!! Please watch the last 3 minutes!
My dad’s caregiver, who as you may recall started showing symptoms while at my parents’ house Saturday night, finally got in to see a doctor late afternoon today. A strep test was positive. The doctor said she could not be tested for flu because she missed the 48-hour window. ?? Does anyone know what that’s about? We don’t!
She will have a phone visit with a doctor three days from now. If she still has a fever, she’ll be tested for COVID-19.
So maybe we dodged a bullet and it’s just strep. I hope so!!