Again, focus on ventilators is just a distraction. One of those early days studies cite 97% mortality. There has been a political strategy to allow x fatalities.
Oh, I thought she was bonkers to do that. I think the lack of testing gave many the false sense of how widespread the spread was. I don’t remember when cases started in San Francisco but I imagine it was already there then.
Because the average person has approximately zero economic intuition, almost no one understands that prices serve incredibly useful functions: they represent the accumulated information that flows from millions of independent decisions. No central planner can ever come close to the informational efficiency that prices represent.
In the old Soviet Union, way back in the 30s, their mathematicians for a time became the world leaders in theoretical linear algebra, which before computers offered the only hope of solving the thousands and even millions of simultaneous input-output equations required by a functioning economy. Despite their expertise, the result of course was that, as the (perhaps apocryphal) story went, it was cheaper to buy a round trip plane ticket spanning 5 time zones from Irkutsk to Moscow to buy toilet paper than it was to just buy the toilet paper in Irkutsk. Not even teams of math geniuses can hope to replicate even 1% of the information that prices so effortlessly provide.
Bottom line, due to the lack of economic intuition among the voting public, whenever there is a crisis, the absolute worst choices will be made regarding allocation of resources. I can never understand the cognitive dissonance that must be maintained. The same person who can see that the government cannot even get masks to its front line medical personnel nevertheless thinks that giving it more power will solve the problem.
A good, simple piece on the implicit role of prices is the classic short essay, “I, Pencil,” available here: https://www.econlib.org/library/Essays/rdPncl.html
With all the restaurants and bars closed, we sure all have time to read!
That is an interesting point that a lot of people made throughout the history and history proved them wrong. The closest example that I have in the US is Medicare : Medicare distorted the prices in medicine and kept them artificially high. Why ? Because the law of supply and demand was distorted. In the end, if the government fixes the prices, you will have less manufacturers on the market and either the prices will go up or the product will stop being available.
Now, let’s say that you requisition all factories and say " I, the government will be the only producer and regulator at the same time". The competition is over, so the incentives for productivity and innovation are over. A passive aggressiveness and slower pace post office style settles in. Productivity drops and so does the quality of the products. Do you think that the governors were unable to plan for each state how many ventilators they need, a larger government entity will be able to plan and count how many ventilators to produce ? Those are the same kind of people, not very good at economics but very good at politics.
Governor Cuomo’s daily update:
Many people have asked me, how bad is this pandemic going to be? While we can’t predict the future, we are using a number of models to forecast when and what the “apex” of the virus might be. The forecasts show a range of possibilities based on the key factor of how successful our social distancing efforts are. In other words, how well New Yorkers like you follow social distancing will make all the difference in the final outcome. So help us. Stay home, reduce the spread, and we will be able to save the lives of hundreds, or even thousands, of your fellow New Yorkers.
Here’s what else you need to know tonight:
- New York-based company Regeneron Pharmaceuticals is creating 500,000 much-needed test kits for the State at no charge. The first batch of test kits was delivered on Monday and the State will receive an ongoing delivery of 25,000 kits per day. Additionally, Corning has donated 100,000 tubes and provided an additional 500,000 tubes to the State at reduced cost and expedited delivery.
- New York City playgrounds will close because they have been too crowded. Open spaces in New York City will remain open for fresh air and sun — but you must stay six feet apart from others.
- The Department of Labor released a new PSA to help New Yorkers applying for unemployment benefits. The PSA provides information on how to apply for UI benefits and reassures New Yorkers: If your unemployment filing is delayed, you will still receive every cent you are owed. And if you have questions about the expanded COVID-19 UI and whether you qualify, click here for more information.
- Happy Census Day. Today, every New Yorker must now respond to the Census. Responding to the Census is simple, safe, private and can be done online from your own home. Let's make sure every New Yorker is counted. Complete the Census today at my2020census.gov.
Tonight’s “Deep Breath Moment”: New York City pet owners affected by Coronavirus can get free dog and cat food, and other supplies like cat litter, through the ASPCA’s New York City pet food distribution center. New York City residents can call the ASPCA Helpline at 1-800-738-9437 for information and appointments.
Ever Upward,
Governor Andrew M. Cuomo
I just wanted to re-emphasize this, and correct a couple of things. First of all, the $500 per child is for any dependant under age 17 – so that leaves out anyone 17 or older (not just 18 and up).
This means not only college students, but most high school seniors are also not qualifying dependents for the coronavirus relief bill.
If this was already noted, I apologize. Hard to keep up with this thread sometimes!
I think China is a totalitarian dictatorship which is bribing the people with some economic freedom so it won’t overthrow the government. Now it has a leader who isn’t going to let go of power.
By the way, a squat toilet isn’t related to poor hygiene. Japan has squat toilets as well. people squatting can actually do their job (not to be gross) more easily because of the position. With my knees I don’t prefer them, but they are not in themselves something ‘gross’ but a cultural difference. Whether or not there is running water and soap to clean hands after, a door to close when using the toilet for privacy, etc, those are related to hygiene. Wet markets selling wild life are not a good idea, but that is also a cultural thing. American eat cows and in India the cow is sacred and no one would think of eating one. It is only that wild animals can pass on disease more easily to humans that makes the difference. I’m a vegetarian and I don’t see much difference in eating one type of animal from another in terms of what it says about the people (other than it isn’t a great idea to eat wild animals). I lived in China for a time and never once did I see anyone eat any type of wild animal or see a restaurant sell them anywhere the entire time. I don’t know what % of people there eat wild animals but I don’t think it is that large. I do agree that rural and urban China are quite different. I do not agree with the Chanel suit and no shower analogy.
apologies if this was already posted
In the Netherlands they have been able to detect the virus in the waste water treatment plants even before a case had been reported. This could be another way of discovering if the virus is silently on the loose.
…They detected genetic material from the coronavirus at a wastewater treatment plant in Amersfoort on March 5, before any cases had been reported in the city, located about 50 kilometers (32 miles) southeast of Amsterdam. The Netherlands confirmed its first Covid-19 case on Feb. 27 and discovered health workers had fallen ill with the infection in a southern part of the country days later – a sign that it was spreading in the community…
The government did a good job getting very fast planning and decisions made in China starting around Jan 20 or so. Much faster than our country has and seems likely to do in the coming couple months.
Where did you see 97% mortality? Do you mean for people on ventilators?
@katliamom , thank you!
I hope it’s okay that I also quote my post after that one, #12039:
DH came home with a huge smile yesterday, and even bigger smile today. It’s really working. Apparently, if you understand the progression of the disease and get a good history and the important labs (especially the neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio), you can give this one dose at the right time. Then you can keep even the sickest people off vents and they get better. Disclaimers: they’ve only been doing this since Monday, it’s early days, etc. But DH is thrilled to have a weapon to fight with!
Sounds promising. Fingers crossed!
https://kadn.com/gov-john-bel-edwards-gives-press-briefing-on-louisianas-response-to-coronavirus/
No idea why, but for some reason, the governor of Louisiana’s press briefings don’t receive national coverage. /s Since we’re all dying to know what governors in areas with large amount of Coronavirus say, here’s John Bel Edward’s latest:
(4/1/2020) Governor John Bel Edwards held a media briefing about Louisiana’s response to Coronavirus. Edwards announced there were 6,424 cases, 60 of 64 parishes were affected and 273 deaths resulting from Coronavirus. Governor Edwards stressed the importance of following the ‘Stay at Home’ order. “We have to have better compliance from everyone.” Gov. Edwards says. “We can simply not let off the gas.” He announced region 3 in Louisiana now has the highest growth rate of Coronavirus.
Gov. John Bel Edwards announced a new Louisiana Loan Portfolio Guaranty Program, which will offer loans of up to $100,000 to Louisiana small businesses of fewer than 100 employees that are impacted by the COVID-19 crisis. To help Main Street and rural businesses sustain operations, the loans will require no payments for 180 days and carry below-market interest rates of no more than 3.5 percent. For more information on the small business loan, visit the link below:
https://kadn.com/gov-edwards-state-led-program-to-offer-covid-19-small-business-help/
Well, we have gone for some time now and don’t have good data. NY doesn’t have time to wait at this point. Tons of people will die before all the data is available.
There are top docs all over the world but if you ask doctors themselves I think many are going to tell you there are clusters which have top docs. National Jewish Hospital, NYC, Boston, etc are some of those in the USA. If you want an operation in, say Maine, many will consider either going to Portland or to Boston. I know many who travel to Boston or NY to see doctors about their more serious conditions. It doesn’t mean there are not great doctors elsewhere as well. Doctors and researchers the world over are finding innovative treatments for this virus, certainly. I do not think any particular deaths are more important than others (other than on a personal level, those closer to me and who I know more have more meaning than those I don’t know as with most people.) I do not think NY is more important than other places. I think it has the most out of control rapid spread of this virus in the country and maybe the world right now and that makes it a big concern. There are other parts of the country that are also quite concerning and will be at the NY level in the future, I fear. Anyplace that is running out of protective gear and respirators or has already run out, that has ERS that are flooded, is a great concern for us all. NY is directly affecting where I live so it is more on my radar than someplace in the middle of the country. I have family in Florida and other parts of the country, so I watch those areas more closely.
Agree to an extent but in our economy it’s not the governments role to get masks. It’s up to the medical providers and hospitals. They can’t stock that many plus there are cost constraints. The single payer, government systems are in the same boat too or soon will be.
The bigger problem in my mind is supply chain disruption. We’ve outsourced and off-shored just about everything. We spend $Trillions on national security and we’ve come to find out that all it takes is a tiny virus and supply chain disruption to cripple America.
Oops, it’s neutrophil/lymphocyte. I am clearly not a doctor or immunologist. But, yes, fingers crossed!
Wonderful! I missed the first post when it was initially posted.
“I don’t know what % of people there eat wild animals but I don’t think it is that large”
I think those are mainly some of the rich people, since these exotic animals seem to be expensive. The issue I was having is with the hygiene surrounding the wet markets, not the type of animal they eat.
Huh, no national coverage of the JB Pritzker - Governor of Illinois - press briefing, either. Hard to even find a transcript. But since there’s such a hunger to hear the minutia from every governor with an infection hotspot, you can watch Pritzker’s latest here:
Yes, I posted that. It makes you wonder why we are now going to overproduce ventilators, wasting all sorts of resources and energy in the process.
Everything being done right now is being done for political cover in my opinion. I feel more confident in my original assumption each day: the hospital system will be overwhelmed for a time in certain areas - this fact was never going to change - but overall the numbers of deaths in the United States from coronavirus will not be particularly high for a once in a hundred years pandemic: maybe 30,000 - 80,000. There will then be a huge push from the politicians to pat themselves on the back for the success of “social distancing,” but we will not have a good estimate as to whether the curve was actually flattened and by how much for a very long time. Time will tell.