Coronavirus in the US

Parent Cafe
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I do not understand why so many people point to California as an example of a state that is doing everything right with regard to coronavirus, while Florida is decried as having an idiot for a governor who has done everything wrong.

As of today, 0.00053% of the population of California has died from coronavirus, while 0.00046% of the population of Florida has died. The curves so far look pretty comparable with 30 dying in California yesterday and 16 dying in Florida, identical on a per capita basis.

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Second prisoner dies at Louisiana’s Oakdale prison
A second inmate at the federal prison in Oakdale, Louisiana has died from COVID-19, a spokesman for the Bureau of Prisons confirmed to Reuters News Agency.

[ It’s got to be spreading in many prisons but very little on that so far. ]

World risks food crisis in wake of coronavirus, officials warn

Governments must ensure free trade especially to avoid further slowdowns in food-supply chains, WTO, WHO, UN say.

The world risks facing a food shortage if authorities fail to manage the continuing coronavirus outbreak properly, the heads of three global agencies have warned.

As governments around the world are trying to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus by putting their populations in lockdown, international trade and food supply chains suffered a severe slowdown.

Panic-buying by people going into confinement has already demonstrated the fragility of supply chains as supermarket shelves emptied in many countries.

“Uncertainty about food availability can spark a wave of export restrictions, creating a shortage on the global market,” said the joint text signed on Wednesday by Qu Dongyu, head of the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the World Health Organization (WHO), and Roberto Azevedo, director of the World Trade Organization (WTO).

“In the midst of the COVID-19 lockdowns, every effort must be made to ensure that trade flows as freely as possible, specially to avoid food shortages” from developing, they said in the statement.

“When acting to protect the health and wellbeing of their citizens, countries should ensure that any trade-related measures do not disrupt the food supply chain,” the statement added.

Coronavirus in Sudan: Food and medical supplies in short supply (2:35)
"Over the longer term confinement orders and travel restrictions risk causing disruptions in agricultural production due to the unavailability of agricultural labour and the inability to get food to markets.

“Such disruptions including hampering the movement of agricultural and food industry workers and extending border delays for food containers, result in the spoilage of perishables and increasing food waste,” said the three leaders.

They also stressed the need to protect employees engaged in food production, processing and distribution, both for their own health and that of others, as well as to maintain food supply chains.

“It is at times like these that more, not less, international cooperation is essential,” they said.

“We must ensure that our response to COVID-19 does not unintentionally create unwarranted shortages of essential items and exacerbate hunger and malnutrition.”

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/world-risks-food-crisis-wake-coronavirus-officials-warn-200401113703012.html

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CA has had it for a long time and still kept the death toll to minimum. FL is new to the cases. If it stays that low, people will eat crow. Give it a week or two and let’s see.

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Turkey sends supplies to Spain and Italy
Turkish officials said that health supplies for Spain and Italy departed from Etimesgut airport in the captial Ankara.

Domestically produced protective masks, face gears, eye gears, overalls and anti-bacterial fluids were transported by an A400 military aircraft in the morning, they told Al Jazeera.

Trump says that the government ordered hospital gowns from Walmart
President Donald Trump said that he spoke to Walmart CEO Doug McMillon and put in a “big big order” for gowns.

“Let it be shipped directly to the side of the hospital because we save a lot of time when we do that,” Trump said.

Doctors, nurses, and healthcare workers around the country have called for more “PPE” or personal protective equipment like gowns and facemasks to protect them from the coronavirus while working at hospitals. (CNBC)

Worst yet to come as coronavirus takes its toll on auto sales
CNBC

The US auto sector is getting hammered by the coronavirus and a recovery could be months away

The coronavirus, led by stay-at-home regulations, brought U.S. vehicle sales to a grinding halt in many areas of the country and the worst is still yet to come, according to industry officials.

Any sales gains achieved in January or February by automakers were essentially erased last month as sales fell off a cliff as some states banned dealers from even conducting online sales due to COVID-19. The orders, until lifted, are expected to continue taking their toll on the auto industry going forward.

“Our expectation is that it gets worse from here,” Cox Automotive Chief Economist Charles Chesbrough told CNBC on Wednesday as the majority of automakers reported substantial sales declines for March and the first quarter. “The news is going to get really bad.”

What was expected to be a down, yet still robust, sales year of about 16.5 million to 17 million vehicles could return to near-recession levels of 12.1 million to 14.8 million, according to J.D. Power.

Trump says he doesn’t know if China underreported coronavirus numbers: ‘I’m not an accountant from China’
CNBC

President Donald Trump said that he has not received any intelligence reports showing that the Chinese government had underreported the number of coronavirus cases and deaths in the country.

“I’m not an accountant from China,” Trump said when asked at a White House press briefing whether China’s numbers are accurate.

Still, Trump said that Beijing’s tally appeared “to be a little bit on the light side, and I’m being nice when I say that, relative to what we witnessed and what was reported.”

The president’s remarks came hours after a news report said the president did receive a secret intelligence brief noting that China deliberately underreported the extent of its COVID-19 outbreak.

Coronavirus could kill more Americans than WWI, Vietnam or Korean wars, White House projection shows

President Donald Trump has compared the coronavirus pandemic to fighting a war — and that outbreak could end up killing more Americans this year than some wars waged by the United States, including the Vietnam and Korean conflicts, and World War I.

And projections issued Tuesday by the White House suggest that the coronavirus has a chance of becoming the third leading cause of current U.S. deaths, after heart disease and cancer, this year.

White House officials estimate that the COVID-19 outbreak will kill between 100,000 and 240,000 Americans this year, even with social distancing, business closures and other mitigation efforts.

On the low end of the projection, with 100,000 deaths, the toll would exceed the more than 90,000 total American service battle deaths and nontheater deaths experienced in the Vietnam conflict, and be around double the same type of U.S. deaths in the Korean War.

And it could match the 116,516 American deaths in World War I.

If 240,000 Americans die from the coronavirus this year, as the projection indicates is possible, it would be nearly half of the total number of Americans who died in the Civil War. That four-year conflict led to more U.S. deaths than any other single war.

Uninsured Americans could be facing nearly $75,000 in medical bills if hospitalized for coronavirus
CNBC

Thanks to lawmakers, coronavirus tests are now free for all Americans. But if you do test positive for COVID-19 and require treatment, the hospital bills could easily cost Americans tens of thousands of dollars, even if you have insurance.

Those who are hospitalized with coronavirus can expect to pay anywhere from $42,486 to $74,310 if they are uninsured or if they receive care that’s deemed out-of-network by their insurance company, according to recent analysis by independent nonprofit FAIR Health.

For those with insurance who are using in-network providers, out-of-pocket costs will be a portion of $21,936 to $38,755, depending on the cost-sharing provisions of their health plan.

To determine the estimates, FAIR Health drew on its database of over 30 billion private health-care claim records, and on estimates of Medicare and Medicaid costs, to project U.S. costs for COVID-19 patients requiring inpatient stays using diagnosis-related groups associated with pneumonia.

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Rachel Maddow just now: Not every person who dies of COVID-19 will be famous, but “everyone will be someone.” “They’re all our responsibility.” Yes.

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Maybe, as you say we need to wait for more data. However, California had its first corona death on March 4, while Florida had its first two on March 7. Given the literally millions of people who visit Florida in the winter months and those dates of first deaths, I would question whether California really had the virus circulating any longer than Florida. Time will tell.

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This is what happened with the last rounds 10 years ago also.

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Rather sensationalist reporting by FairHealth.

Since they the data, they could have and should have estimated the cost-sharing “portion” that is typically paid on hospital bills ranging from $21k-$38k.

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Oh good, and then this happened…

https://abc7ny.com/officials-engineer-tried-to-smash-train-into-usns-mercy/6069459/

An engineer deliberately ran a train off the tracks at high speed near the Port of Los Angeles in an attempt to crash into and damage the USNS Mercy hospital ship, prosecutors say.

The Pacific Harbor Line train derailed Tuesday, running through the end of the track and crashing through barriers, finally coming to rest about 250 yards from the docked naval ship.

Federal prosecutors allege train engineer Eduardo Moreno, 44, of San Pedro intended to hit the ship, saying he thought it was “suspicious” and did not believe “the ship is what they say it’s for.'”

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Given the wide range of deductibles (especially) and co-pays, it could be all over the map and therefore kind of meaningless, IMO. If I know the $21-38K range, I can back out my own deductible, estimate a copays, etc.

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I tried to post this before and don’t think it posted. If it did, I"m sorry if I’m clogging things up.

A small number of the many experts who warned this could happen and warned when it did happen.

Feb 5, 2020
Coronavirus: Window of opportunity to act, World Health Organization says
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51368873

Feb 21, 2020
WHO’s warning of closing window of opportunity
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/news-wrap-who-warns-of-closing-window-to-contain-novel-coronavirus

This Washington Post article claims various high level people tried to get Trump to take more and different action and talks about Azar not getting to talk to Trump about the virus until Jan 18 after two weeks of trying and also of top aids meeting wtih Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney to try to get a greater focus on the virus Jan 27 and also Joe Grogan, head of White House Domestic Policy’s warning about the virus for the coming months.

U.S. intelligence reports from January and February warned about a likely pandemic
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/us-intelligence-reports-from-january-and-february-warned-about-a-likely-pandemic/2020/03/20/299d8cda-6ad5-11ea-b5f1-a5a804158597_story.html

Jan 28 - two former white house staff urged Trump to act now to prevent epidemic
They advocate a 4-point plan to address the coming crisis:
(1) Expand testing to identify and isolate cases.
Note: This did not happen for many weeks. The first time more than 2,000 tests were deployed in a single day was not until almost six weeks later, on March 11.
(2) Boost flu vaccination efforts to reduce the load on hospitals.
(3) Prepare hospital units for isolation with more gowns and masks.
Note: There was no dramatic ramp-up in the production of critical supplies undertaken. As a result, many hospitals quickly experienced shortages of critical PPE materials.
(4) Vaccine development.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/stop-a-u-s-coronavirus-outbreak-before-it-starts-11580859525

Jan 29 NYT article about masks and

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it isn’t about % of the population but about flattening the curve.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/04/01/lockdown-coronavirus-california-data/

One will impact the other, but that alone isn’t a very good indicator of if the virus is increasing its rate of infection in the population and if so, how rapidly. Florida is rapidly increasing its rate of infection. That’s a big concern.

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I’m telling you, this all would be too crazy for a movie or book plot.

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@privatebanker I could understand the motives of those pushing people to eat in Chinese restaurants because there has been a spike of racism against Asian American. I agree with those who ask why we didn’t have a similar travel ban with Italy when it got very bad off and why didn’t people shy away from Italian restaurants, too. On the other hand, I did have concerns about our local Chinese restaurant in which tons of Chinese college students (from China) eat regularly. It certainly would be where someone who might have gone to Wuhan over break would have come afterward. I know someone with relatives in Wuhan who eats there, actually!

I did not think that large crowds were a smart thing. There were many articles talking about Trump continuing to have large crowds despite the danger and not as many about others who also had events with large crowds. My memory is that Trump continued to do so longer than others, though. Maybe not by all that much (a week or two?) but longer.

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In my opinion, people are doing their level best to find cures, expedite treatment, reduce caseload, and generally prevent mass deaths. Maybe that is also good for political cover, but as jaded and cynical as I sometimes can me, this statement just floors me. People are dying, and throwing stones at those trying to help just seems mean-spirited.

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Well, I sure hope you are right. I would have a party and make a big crow cake and we can all eat it. There isn’t anything out there that looks like the numbers there are going to do anything but continue to increase exponentially for some time to come.

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I am particularly concerned about Louisiana now. I am in New Jersey with 22,255 cases and 355 deaths. Louisiana has 6,424 cases and 273 deaths. That’s a bad rate. (info from state Covid 19 info websites.

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The Soccer Match that Kicked Off Italy’s Coronavirus Disaster
Decision to hold Atalanta-Valencia Champions League match in February accelerated spread of pandemic

On the afternoon of Feb. 19, Andrea Pontiggia was heading from Bergamo, Italy, to the biggest soccer match of his life—along with 40,000 of his closest friends.

The novel coronavirus, which had barely registered in Italy by that point, was the furthest thing from their minds.

The whole city seemed to be on the road. In 48 years of rooting for Bergamo’s local professional soccer team, a modest outfit called Atalanta, neither Mr. Pontiggia nor his hometown had ever seen anything like it. Atalanta was somehow the Cinderella of European soccer, and now it had a date in the sport’s most prestigious tournament, the Champions League. The match had even been moved to Milan for the occasion.

The stadium, San Siro, had enough room in the stands for twice as many Bergamaschi as Atalanta’s home park, and the Italian fans intended to cram into every available seat. None of them had yet heard the words social distancing.

“Everything was crowded. The roads, all the surroundings, the stadium,” said Mr. Pontiggia, 55, who took nearly three hours to complete the 35-mile drive to the San Siro. “It was practically a whole town moving to Milan. It was amazing, incredible.”

It was also a contagion disaster. Atalanta fans were walking into a petri dish. In a single mass gathering, they were about to prove how sporting events could end up at the center of a global pandemic.

By then, the coronavirus was spreading through untold numbers of asymptomatic carriers. Forty thousand bouncing, hugging soccer fans were the perfect vector: Experts are now convinced that Atalanta’s 4-1 win over Valencia was a catalyst in turning Lombardy into one of the worst-hit regions on the planet. The coronavirus was so present inside the stadium that night that once Valencia returned to Spain, 35% of its traveling squad eventually tested positive.

“Two weeks after Feb. 19, there was an incredible explosion of cases,” said Dr. Francesco Le Foche, an immunologist in charge of infectious disease at Policlinico Umberto I in Rome. “The match played a huge role in disseminating coronavirus throughout Lombardy and in Bergamo in particular.”

A first major eruption, in small towns south of Milan, wasn’t detected until the days immediately following the game. Some nearby outbreaks could be traced to other mass gatherings, like Brescia’s folk festival of San Faustino, which drew around 100,000 people into the streets.

Few settings are as cruelly effective at spreading contamination as a major sporting event. Beyond the shared airspace and contact of sitting in stands, rubbing shoulders, and high-fiving, the simple experience of getting to your seat is an exercise in crowd-surfing. In cramped European stadiums for big games on cold nights, it is part of the charm.

Through the lens of coronavirus, every detail feels like a mistake.

Atalanta supporter Luca Brignoli, 57, thinks back to his subway ride to the San Siro from downtown Milan, bodies jammed against the door. He remembers milling around the piazza in front of the stadium, where fans from both sides mixed and drank and snacked from food trucks. He wonders how many people might have coughed or sneezed while navigating the stadium’s turnstiles and narrow passages.

“People went as if to a feast,” said Mr. Brignoli, who hasn’t displayed any symptoms. “We were very close to each other.”

Over the next two weeks, grim news washed across the region daily. Italy’s soccer federation closed the stadiums and eventually suspended the season. By March 10, the whole country was on lockdown. And all the while, Bergamo’s body count kept rising. Hospitals were overwhelmed. The military drove away the dead by the truckload.

On Feb. 19, there were only three confirmed cases across the entire country, and no evidence that community transmission had begun.

By March 8, that number was 997 in the province of Bergamo alone. And as of Tuesday, the Lombardy region accounted for 41% of the confirmed cases in Italy, according to government data. Bergamo is now up to 8,803 cases, exceeded only by the much larger city of Milan.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-soccer-match-that-kicked-off-italys-coronavirus-disaster-11585752012?mod=hp_lead_pos

like what is happening in NO, which had 1 million MardiGras celebrants downtown

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This is so very important, and there are so many people who can’t or won’t accept it.

My government customers used to recoil at the fact that our contract negotiations for government orders included profit/fees for the contractor. And they never understood that the capitalist price (our cost plus our fee) was always lower than the price of the government agencies that did similar work for government cost with no fee. Competition works. Markets work, if you let them. But it is such a difficult concept for some. More and better products at lower costs. Because of profit, not in spite of it.

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This is disturbing:

Anthony Fauci gets security amid threats, stalkers

https://amp.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/1/anthony-fauci-gets-security-amid-threats-stalkers-/