Also depend on population density. More people cooped up in common places = more exposure to any airborne virus or virus that spreads through droplets.
but what about numbers of deaths? you donât clinically diagnose those??
Just trying to understand.
Iâm just guessing, but if there are regions/clinics without access to testing, they may have been treating a lot of sick people and many of these people may have died. However, these deaths/illness hadnât been counted officially due to lack of lab confirmation. Now the reporting has been expanded to include these cases, hence the big jump all at once.
The jump in the number of deaths isnât that surprising if you follow the number of patients there in critical condition.
Person dies of pulmonary problems. Personâs test is pending. It could be flu or whatever. Until the test results are back, no one can tell what the cause of the problem was.
@Qtinfo and @BunsenBurner those explanations make sense. Thanks.
"Officials in Hubei said they were broadening their definition for COVID-19 cases by including people âclinically diagnosedâ with the virus in the daily tally.
This means officials can use lung imaging on suspected cases to diagnose the virus, rather than the standard nucleic acid tests" (AFP)
âThe WHO has been able to track down the source of transmission in all but eight of the 441 cases of the virus outside China, its head of emergencies Michael Ryan said.â (BBC)
Has always been strange to me that reported cases are not mathematically incremental. The big jump on the JHU website ( yesterday 44.8 today 60K) could either mean they are catching up on reporting or it is indeed spreading. It could also mean that reporting is sporadic and inaccurate. ( This is what I believe). Unfortunately, one of the categories is mainland China, an area so large that one cannot conceivably track patterns. At least not on this data site.
From the Washington Post:âBut the virusâs destructive potential has overshadowed one encouraging aspect of this outbreak: So far, about 82 percent of the cases â including most of the 14 in the United States â have been mild, with symptoms that require little or no medical intervention. And that proportion may be an undercount.â
Where did the 14th case in the US come from? I thought it was 13.
I think they are catching up with reporting. They had changed their counting method a few days ago that seemed to have contributed to slowing down. The new number must come from by adding it all back. If you ignore the last few data points and interpolate, the trajectory is neither slowing down or speeding up. It is maintaining its trajectory.
I posted upthread. San Diego military base, one of the evacuees that just arrived for quarantine on Friday.
44 more cases on Diamond Princess cruise ship anchored off Japan
âThere have now been 218 cases confirmed on the cruise ship, taking the total number of infections in Japan to 247. There are now questions about whether the quarantine on the ship is working, with dozens of new cases diagnosed almost dailyâ
âHealth Minister Katsunobu Kato said the 44 new cases were detected from another 221 new testsâŠKato said authorities now want to move elderly people off the ship if they test negative for the virus, offering to put them in government-designated lodging.âWe wish to start the operation from tomorrow or later,â Kato told reporters. Of the newly diagnosed infections, 43 are passengers, and one a member of the crew.â
(SCMP)
@Nhatrang, at least one of our clients has proposed a working session in which they were bringing people in from various countries to work with us. I have a tentative trip to Australia later this month that I suspect wouldnât happen on its own but I wouldnât be surprised if the client cancels it.
SARS definitely cut into our travel, so if this goes on for a long time, we will be curtailing travel. I have work on the West Coast and Western Canada and havenât thought about not traveling there. Have a trip in May to Israel. Not an obvious problem there, but Iâll see.
More info on the change in diagnostic criteria for confirming cases
âFrom today on, we will include the number of clinically diagnosed cases into the number of confirmed cases so that patients could receive timely treatment,â the health authority said. Previously, patients could only be diagnosed by test kits, which has seen a shortage of supply across the country."âŠthe move was in line with the National Health Commissionâs latest diagnostic guidelines to include clinical diagnosis, using CT scans and other tests. âWhen doctors diagnose pneumonia, they can only get the etiology of the disease 20 to 30 per cent of the time. We have to rely on clinical diagnosis 70 to 80 per cent of the time. Increasing the diagnosis of clinical cases will help us make an additional judgment on the disease," âŠDr Ho Pak-leung, a medical expert at the University of Hong Kong, supported the change in diagnostic criteria in Hubei, commenting that under the previous criteria some patients may have died before doctors were able to carry out any tests." (SCMP)
@doschicos thanks for that update. That makes perfect sense and honestly, I was kind of surprised they werenât doing it before.
Let me guess⊠forgot a primer?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/12/health/coronavirus-test-kits-cdc.html
Some tests shipped did not pass QC.
WHO officials described Chinaâs decision to broaden their definition of what constitutes a confirmed case as a necessary measure.
âWhen the situation is evolving, you change your definition just to make sure you can monitor the disease accurately, and this is what they have done recently â change the case definition to incorporate more cases that were not in the initial case definition, but also integrate cases that are both asymptomatic or with little symptom,â Dr. Sylvie Briand, director of WHOâs Infectious Hazards Management Department"
âThis outbreak could still go in any direction,â WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Wednesday. âWe have to invest in preparedness,â Tedros said, adding that richer countries should help invest in countries with a weaker health system. He warned the virus could âcreate havocâ if it reaches a country whose health system is not capable of handling such an epidemic." (CNN)
Daily Tallies
Total new confirmed cases in China: 15,405 for 59,807 in China and 60,376 worldwide.
Total new deaths in China: 255 for a total of 1,367 in China and 1,369 worldwide.
Coronavirus cases in Vietnam prompt mass quarantine of 10,000 people in Son Loi commune
"Villages in Vietnam with 10,000 people close to the nationâs capital were placed under quarantine on Thursday after six cases of the deadly new coronavirus were discovered there, authorities said. The locking down of the commune of Son Loi, about 40km from Hanoi, is the first mass quarantine outside China since the virus â which causes the disease officially known as Covid-19 â emerged from a central Chinese city late last year.âThe timeline ⊠is for 20 daysâ. Son Loi is a farming region made up of several villages. (SCMP)
"Coronavirus evacuees being held in âŠquarantine [at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar in San Diego] have released a petition of demands calling for better oversight in the center where they are staying, after an infected patient was mistakenly released from isolation and back into the general quarantine populationâŠmembers of the quarantined population issued demands to: test everyone in the facility for coronavirus whether or not they are showing symptoms; prevent gatherings of large numbers of people in common areas; deliver protective gear to rooms where people are staying; provide hand sanitizer in public spaces including the facilityâs playground; and clean common areas more often. The CDC did not respond to request for comment, but said in a statement that the premature release of the infected patient was due to confusion caused by using pseudonyms for patients under evaluation for privacy purposes. "
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/12/coronavirus-outbreak-california-quarantine-evacuees
Article mentions complaints about the food. There is a photo in the article. If that is the type of food they are getting for 14 days, I can understand the complaints.