I don’t know why the passengers from the Diamond Princess were put on an airplane, in close quarters with people who were likely infected (but hadn’t tested positive) to go back to the states. We have three air bases in Japan, they could have sent them there to be safely quarantined for awhile…seeing as they were going to quarantine them anyways. And they could have done this a long time ago, likely less people would have been infected, and their quarantine would be over soon. I wonder if the Japanese government refused that. Seems that our govt could have put more pressure on them.
Thinking about the crew that flew them back on Kalitta. The story is they were wearing full hazmat suits, though I don’t know the truth. Hard to believe they could be that highly protected for such a long flight, you have to take something off to eat and pee at some point. Though I think I would forgo the restroom in the airplane and use the paper cup method to stay away from the cabin, unless they have crew only facilities. Even then…hope they paid the crew a big bonus to fly that trip. Doubt it, though.
I have no medical/scientific background, so hope this doesn’t sound too ignorant. But a couple of thoughts:
If viruses don't survive in heat/humidity, and if the corona virus issue is so dangerous, why wouldn't places in hot parts of the world that are near China turn off their AC? I'm thinking of Singapore as an example. A quick google search said that at 90 degrees F, viruses can only survive on surfaces for an hour as opposed to 43 degrees with low humidity viruses survive for 23 hours (not sure how long they survive at typical AC temps of 70-75 degrees). An hour isn't great, but it's better than 23 hours, and it seems like the low-tech responses are the easiest and most effective, such as hand-washing and quarantines.
Can we use UV lights in certain high traffic area places in order to kill viruses? At least we could install UV lights in the HVAC systems so that when air is recirculated, the recirculated air is free of virus and bacteria.
The US passengers should have been evacuated to Guam at the earliest possible time. That’s relatively nearby and has medical and military base facilities to keep everyone isolated.
“Zhuhai, in the southern Guangdong province, last week reported two cases with incubation periods longer than 14 days. Similar cases have also been reported in Anhui and Shandong provinces” (SCMP)
Americans on WHO team:
"A team of medical experts from the World Health Organisation (WHO), including specialists from the US, will visit Beijing and the Chinese provinces of Guangdong and Sichuan from Monday…But neither Wuhan or any other part of Hubei, the central Chinese province at the epicentre of the outbreak, was on the itinerary, raising concerns among medical experts about the transparency of the mission…
The Global Times, a nationalist tabloid affiliated with Communist Party mouthpiece People’s Daily, quoted Xi Chen, an assistant professor of global health policy and economics at Yale University, as saying that Hubei was at a critical moment in its fight to stop the virus and might not have the capacity to work with the WHO mission right now…
Experts said the international team would be left with an “incomplete picture” of the outbreak if it did not go to Wuhan or Hubei."
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director general of WHO, said in a press conference today:
"the virus seems to be “not as deadly as other coronavirus including Sars and Mers”, with the majority of patients making a full recovery.
More than 80% of patients have mild disease and will recover.
In about 14% of cases, the virus causes severe diseases including pneumonia and shortness of breath.
And about 5% of patients have critical diseases including respiratory failure, septic shock and multi-organ failure.
In 2% of reported cases, the virus is fatal, and the risk of death increases the older you are.
We see relatively few cases among children. More research is needed to understand why." (Guardian)
Diamond Princess:
“Shigeru Omi, the chief director of the Japan Community Health Care Organisation. “70% of those testing positive are not showing any symptoms at all.” (Guardian)
Tokyo Marathon closed to all but elite runners
"Organisers of the Tokyo Marathon said the 38,000 general participants who signed up for the race on 1 March will not be allowed to compete…The event will instead be limited to top-level competitors, which includes 176 elite runners and 30 elite wheelchair athletes. Japan would limit public crowds in Tokyo to prevent a further spread of the deadly coronavirus…
Japan also announced it would be scrapping the emperor’s birthday celebrations. The last time the birthday celebration was cancelled was 1996, during a hostage crisis at the Japanese embassy in Peru." (Guardian)
Yes, this exactly. We now have two instances where American authorities established and publicly announced certain protocols, only to disregard the protocols when following them became inconvenient (Diamond Princess evacuation; Wuhan evacuees in San Diego).
In the San Diego case, the testing error could not have been anticipated, but I don’t understand why the original protocol was not followed. Authorities discovered the symptomatic evacuees had not actually been cleared as the evacuees were being transported from the hospital to the marine base. Why not turn the van around and readmit them to the hospital until testing was complete? Inconvenient, yes, but not a huge deal in the grand scheme of things.
In the Diamond Princess evacuation, given how long testing can take, it could and should have been anticipated that some guests would turn up positive at the last moment before boarding the aircraft. Either have a plan for those people (e.g. bus waiting to transport them to quarantine location or a different aircraft), or decide in advance that they WILL be allowed to board the aircraft and kept separate from others.
Just to be clear, I am NOT commenting on the protocols themselves. Maybe the new protocols were safe. But in a potential health emergency, maintaining public trust is absolutely paramount.
"China seeks to fast-track ban on trade in wild animals amid coronavirus outbreak
The standing committee of the National People’s Congress is set to approve a ban on the sale and consumption of wild animals later this month
Existing law is riddled with loopholes, but measure will bypass need to go through time-consuming legislative process
The Chinese government is expected to fast-track a ban on the trade and consumption of wild animals…the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress would review the ban at a meeting on February 24." (SCMP)
Guam refused even the supposedly non infected ship. I cannot see them being thrilled about a ship full of infected people. Japan needs some huge kudos for being really abused in this situation. I have not heard any anger about it so far. The first positive result of a passenger was made 2 days before it docked in Japan.
Can Guam really refuse if the US government orders it, and makes military facilities available? I don’t think any US state like California could refuse.
Japan put Japan first. The US government sat and watched and did nothing while the infection continued to spread. I still hold my previous position…if this ship and been docked in San Francisco, New York, Seattle or Miami the human rights lawyers would have been falling all over themselves. The ACLU would probably be first in line to take on a case of false imprisonment and endangering of person.
There’s a self righteous undertone to parts of this thread along the lines of ‘well, you got on a cruise ship, what did you expect. You kind of deserve this and brought it on yourself.’
Most likely cruise passengers will now hide their symptoms as long possible in the hopes of just getting back home. Wherever home might be. This situation has created a monster - and it’s not just the virus.
People will criticize regardless of what action is taken or not taken. Hindsight isn’t particularly helpful. I do not doubt the US public health authorities are doing their best with limited information in changing circumstances.
Some will opt for quarantine ( longer or shorter than 14 days); Some will opt for personal freedoms. Personally, I’m in favor of the sacrifice of the few for the many…It’s not as though they are without food on these boats.
If it is indeed the case that about 5% of overall patients are having major issues like organ failure then I would up the quarantine and review even closer. That’s 1 in 20 patients. Even if only 2% die, the 5% number would quickly overwhelm any medical system.
It’s unlikely it can be stopped at this poin from spreading to various countries. But slowing the spread can actually have the impact of stopping thousands + if not millions of deaths ( if it reached pandemic proportions). At that point is anyone going to be upset they put some procedures in place? So, if that means someone has to wait on a boat for a few weeks, I’m okay with that. IF I was on the boat, I’d just wait until the quarantine passed. No way I’d go home to my family given the unknowns.
I do wish China would open up the area to medical professionals who can assist and find out real details to map out a plan, quick.
People are already being quarantined against their will in this country. There was the one person in CA that left and was brought back. No choices given. But we wouldn’t, as discussed on this thread early on, be able to implement, let alone swiftly, the type of measures they have in China re: quarantines and restrictions.
Possibly higher if the WHO head’s comments that as much as 14% have pneumonia or shortness of breath. I’m not confident our government and health care system would handle that well at all and not be overwhelmed.
New deaths: 98 for a total of 1,868 in China and 1,873 worldwide.
Newly confirmed cases: 1,886 in China for at total of 72,436 and 73,335 +/- worldwide.
Only 79 new cases and 5 new deaths occurred outside of Hubei province in China which seems promising if accurate.
“the Beijing-based financial and news media organisation, Caixin, reported on Tuesday that more than 3,000 Chinese healthcare workers may have already been infected by the coronavirus, almost twice as many as the numbers reported by the government.” (Al Jazeera)
How inefficient and ineffective self quarantine can be.
The issue of health care worker vulnerability is going to have to be a discussion once this hits the USA (and UK, Australia) intensive care units in any numbers. There is limited provision for isolation AND ICU anywhere. HCPs might well not want to (i.e refuse) work with these pts when the environment isn’t suitable. They don’t need to be dying from work infections.
“Chinese health authorities have released an omnibus study of more than 70,000 confirmed or suspected coronavirus cases…the scientific paper’s authors cautioned that infections could spike after people return to work following the extended Lunar New Year holiday. The paper, published on Monday in a weekly volume by the China Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC), includes all the cases mandatorily recorded in the mainland’s Infectious Diseases Information System until February 11 – making it the broadest study yet of the disease now known as Covid-19.”
Read the article for more but here are a few details provided:
"the fatality rate for those aged above 80, which the study found to be 14.8 per cent. In the 70-79 age range, the fatality rate was 8.0 per cent.
Infections were almost evenly spread among men and women, with men making up 51.4 per cent of confirmed cases. The overall male fatality rate was higher, at 2.8 per cent compared to 1.7 per cent for women.
Patients in Hubei had a fatality rate of 2.9 per cent, seven times the 0.4 per cent figure for the rest of mainland China. Across the mainland, half of the patients who reached a critical state died."