Coronavirus May 2020 - Observations, information, discussion

To add to what @MomofWildChild said, there is no test at the present that would give you a result on the spot, so test results show what your Covid status was at least a day ago (even the touted 15 min PCR test and the new antigen tests would require a trip to a medical facility, so not instant). Then there is cost/benefit… it costs (without subsidies) $50-$200 to run a molecular Covid test. Does it makes sense to test everyone given the current state of testing? Or should we test strategically so the system can process those results faster for the population that really needs to know the results faster?

Ditto. Moreover, I might wait 6+ months to get an approved vaccine just to see how it plays out. (Since it’s being rushed, its likely that unforeseen issues will pop up with mass vaccination.)

Never would have passed court challenges.

I take it you’ve never worked in a grocery store. (no way curbside would “free up” employees – it would require more.)

Germany’s school openings aren’t a good litmus test yet, because they have been so limited. 3 weeks ago, college track seniors and clerical track sophomores (both years have mandatory finals) came back. Only core subjects, no specials, 15 kids to a room, social distancing, in and out. One week ago, juniors and freshmen, respectively, as well as fourth graders. Next week, fifth and first graders. 10 to a room, alternate days, staggered periods, recess in groups of 10, social distancing (good luck with the first graders!).

No, I don’t think it will drive infection rates up noticeably, but that’s because of how it’s done.

What really worries me? Ever since lockdown has been somewhat loosened, people out and about, running around, masks round their chins, crowding shops, as if it were all over.

And nutters in the thousands meeting up to demonstrate In the state Capitals against world domination by Bill Gates, mandatory vaccinations and “infringement of their rights worse than East Germany!”

Then stop complaining about all of the businesses being deemed essential. You cannot have it both ways.

Of course it would free up front line employees, cashiers and stock persons for instance, would be moved to just filling orders for curb side pickup. The instore shoppers use a hand held device which scans price as each item is picked, already. They also wouldn’t need to worry about exposure to hundreds of people coming inside the store.

This process could all be done in the back area of grocery stores. If it was done at the warehouse, almost all instore employees could SAH.

The way to think about it is, which is higher risk to you:

A. Risk of COVID-19.
B. Risk of a new vaccine + remaining risk of COVID-19 after getting the vaccine.

Historical examples include vaccines that would be considered unsafe by today’s standards, like the various smallpox vaccines that have been historically used. Even before smallpox vaccine, people were willing to do the more dangerous practice of variolation (infecting themselves with low doses of actual smallpox) to get a mild smallpox infection in order to gain immunity.

The problem with making this A versus B risk assessment is that the information available to determine either A or B is still not that well defined (it has been getting better than before for A, but still not that well defined).

Even with incomplete information, some people may have personal situations that affect the decision. For example, an older dentist or dental hygienist may assess risk differently from a younger fire lookout in a remote national park or national forest.

You must have me confused with somebody else bcos I have never complained about businesses being deemed essential.

I take it you have never been in the back of a store.

Popping in to defend dog grooming. My two have coats that cause health problems if they get matted; it’s not satin bows. It’s our own fault, because we did get a breed that needs this sort of maintenance, but they’re the dogs we have and I want to take care of them. That said, I had no complaints when our state categorized groomers as non-essential, and I did as much as possible on my own.

And amen to the observations about “Food, water, shelter, no one bombing me.” This pandemic has sure highlighted Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs for me. FWIW I’m a big fan of the extreme measures of closing things down while redistributing resources so people are still assured of necessities. It’s disgraceful how many live with insecurity about any of them.

Of course I have. I have also worked in a warehouse for all product being delivered to chain of 250+ fast food restaurants. I worked pulling product off conveyer belts onto pallets to be loaded into the trucks for deliveries to the restaurants.

It was actually one of my favorite jobs when I was in grad school.

People and businesses need to think outside the box - instead of whining that “we can’t do this, we can’t to that.”

We are not going to have a choice. Things are going to have to be done differently. And the sooner we understand and implement necessary changes, the quicker our economy will improve. Those businesses that choose to innovate now will be the survivors in our new normal.

This doesn’t even make sense. Bill Gates uses his personal fortune to support public health, and has for years with his Gates Foundation. There is nothing for anyone to “invest” in, because there is no business. He gives the money away.

[Edited by moderator to fix quote]

One of our big grocery chains just removed all of the arrows for one way aisles in the stores - seems the fighting was getting out of hand and the cops had to be called a few too many times. You can’t make this stuff up.

From a Chicago Sun-Times article last week:

Dr. Ngozi Ezike, the head of the Illinois Department of Public Health said about 90% of people who have died of COVID-19 in Illinois have had comorbidities, such as heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma, and diabetes.

^ I’m surprised to see asthma listed.

From Wirepoints.org

Illinois began providing COVID-19 hospitalization and resource data only on April 3, 2020, after many groups, including Wirepoints, requested the data be released. The state now provides the data daily on the IDPH website here.

The hospitalization and resource availability numbers shown below are key to knowing if the crisis is subsiding and to determining when parts of the economy can begin to reopen. Wirepoints is now compiling this data so our readers can see how the numbers are trending over time.

Importantly, there are still many key numbers we are not receiving from the state but that are necessary for properly assessing the situation. They include, but are not limited to:

-The comorbidities present in COVID-19 deaths. Today, IDPH provides a breakdown of the ages of COVID-19 deaths (see chart below), but it does not disclose how many, or what percent, of each age group had underlying causes. That’s key to understanding what demographics are most vulnerable to the disease.

-The number of daily COVID-19 ICU admissions. It’s an important data point often included in New York’s daily updates and central to understanding if the curve is flattening or not.

Given the data has only been recently released by the state, it is difficult to make any firm assessments. However, there are few key takeaways one may cautiously draw from the data, in particular since Illinois’ crisis is supposedly peaking now, or has already peaked (based on IHME projections):

Illinois has excess resources in COVID-19 beds, ICU beds and ventilators. Of course, certain regions may be experiencing shortages.
Hospitalizations may be flattening, but far more data is needed.
Deaths may be peaking, but far more data is needed.

An article in the NY Times today about the efficacy of anti-body tests for Covid-19

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/opinion/antibody-test-accuracy.html

Sigh. Old news. There was an initial flood of questionable tests because the FDA loosened its grip. The Ab tests by Roche and Abbott are much better than that!

Agree…It’s so frustrating that the media is behind the data and publishing pieces like this…granted the pace of developments is incredibly fast, but their job to keep up.

Here’s some antibody test data:

Here’s the FDA link:
https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/emergency-situations-medical-devices/eua-authorized-serology-test-performance

This isn’t about the Abbott antibody test but their rapid CV19 test that is used by the WH.

Study has not yet been reviewed by other scientists.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-13/abbott-fast-test-missed-many-covid-cases-unreviewed-study-says

GA provides LTC (long term care) information. Over 1/2 our deaths have been from LTC places. Also over 2K staff at this places have tested positive. (not sure on deaths of these HC workers).

It’s about the same deaths in LA county (~50% are in senior facilities). If I was Gov, I’d appoint a task force to focus solely on this group and focus less on whether a beach is open.

A couple of weeks ago I said to my neighbor that people are going to rethink the “open concept” floor plan that has dominated new construction for a while now. “Great rooms“ that are open to the kitchen and dining area, two story family rooms that have an open area to the upstairs, etc. Having a home office is certainly a plus, but when the whole family is home trying to do schooling or work, having so many open spaces has become a negative. We don’t have a home office so my husband is using the formal dining room. It’s a separate room from the kitchen, but no doors. I have three kids making daily smoothies at random times in b/w their Zoom classes so you imagine the noise! Thankfully we don’t have a 2-story family room so the kids upstairs working are not as impacted by household noise downstairs.