Just when we thought we knew all the bad things this virus could do, this new serious pediatric complication, Kawasaki-like syndrome, is ramping up. Now over 100 kids in NYC are identified with it. At first I was thinking it was super rare, very bad indeed but so rare it wasn’t a huge concern, but now it doesn’t seem that rare.
In a city of 23,000 near where I live, there are 48 positive cases. 44 of those are from one nursing home.
I’m glad the county provides this information because it changes my outlook on the risk to me. It also shows where the real problem is. It’s not the parks or the stores.
I’m very compliant with safety measures. I do NOT wear a mask to walk in my neighborhood, where it’s easy to be 25 feet or more away from the next person, assuming I even see anyone else.
Not scientific, but it seems from the data that is slowing pouring out that being outside carries very low risk vs. being in a confined space with poor ventilation. Though my dh thinks I way too obsessed with COVID and way way too paranoid about germs/transmission, even I feel safe when I’m outside.
In my county, there are 2381 identified cases, including 446 in long term care facilities. So, mostly not in long term care facilities.
I’ve also seen a breakdown of the location of the home of each person who died. They’re hugely disproportionately four zip codes in San Jose, zip codes of Latino areas where people live in crowded conditions so one essential worker will spread the disease to the five other people who live in their apartment.
Nobody who lives in my snooty suburb has died. I don’t want anyone to die anywhere, and I’m glad nobody here has died, but that information doesn’t encourage me to want to open up. The people who get sick don’t live here. But they work here! Who do I think is cleaning houses here, cooking in restaurants, bussing tables, stocking shelves, working in nursing homes? People who live in those overcrowded areas. The virus can’t get me because I’m not going out and I’m not living with anyone who is going out, but if everything opened up and I went out, I’d get exposed.
I wish Santa Clara County would find a way to isolate people who test positive, to protect everybody.
Ugh, @showmom858 , that biker was rude. From the research, it doesn’t seem like wearing masks outside when staying far away from others is necessary or even helpful at all. I don’t wear one outside either. I do wear them indoors though, and I do get testy toward those who don’t wear them when going into the post office or grocery store, etc.
I wish we knew exactly where our cases are. I think I kind of do locally from local news and the grapevine, but we noticed on our TV news that a more rural county west of us has quite a larger number. I can see the numbers by zip code as well - a couple are “hot.” Looking at a map, I 81 runs through it and there’s a state college there. Those are my suspects, but I’d love to know if it’s true or not. If not, then what is the source? If it’s out in the public, that’s different than being a cluster in a nursing home.
Otherwise, being farming communities they get a lot of farm workers, but since most of it is picking fruit, it isn’t that season yet.
Is there a prison in the more rural county?
Do the employees live at the nursing home where most of these cases are?
Do their families live there, too.?
Do they shop in stores for groceries?
Pump gas?
Are they isolating themselves from the communities they live in?
Are their family members not working in restaurants, groceries stores, in your community?
@emilybee That’s one of the weird things about this disease. Yes, of course, someone from the community had to bring the virus into the nursing home in the first place, and it makes sense that staff would be spreading it in their homes and community. And yet, there doesn’t always seem to be a lot of community spread around these institutions. Some, but not what I would expect. I just don’t get it. Maybe people are actually social distancing in ways that do interrupt transmission.
Maybe it’s because everyone has been practicing SAH until now. But it’s changing in many places.
Tatin believes her risk is small so it sounds to me she doesn’t believe she needs to follow the guild lines anymore. I expect many millions more are or will be following the same path.
And we know what will happen when that happens.
The virus hasn’t changed. It is still going to spread and will surge when people stop taking precautions.
I live in Wisconsin and closely follow local news and issues. The opinion yesterday from the Wisconsin Supreme Court had much more to do with law and politics than with science although unfortunately (IMO) it will have a negative effect on public health. I won’t delve more into the politics here.
I must have missed the part where @TatinG said she/he/they wouldn’t be following the guidelines any more. Or are you jumping to conclusions?
Contact tracing…is there a dummy guide to understand how it works?
Honestly, there is so much I don’t understand about this virus. And about human behavior. My current job has always been work from home, so I can l just keep staying home and keeping out of transmission lines as much as I can. Will it surge? Or will people do enough social distancing that even without stay-at-home orders we can keep the spread low? I just don’t know. I wish I knew more and could make better risk assessments.
Contact Tracing for Dummies:
Austin has come out with a specific guide. At least they’re trying to be logical.
Austin’s is the first guide I have seen that counts down not up. Why?
I would find it depressing, and it would’ve an adverse effect on my own mental health, if I lived among people/neighbors/community that I held in such low regard.
That’s just me.
@ChoatieMom I think this thread has moved so fast your question got lost!
In my opinion, we do not know very much at all about this virus. Accordingly, we cannot say with certainty that:
- if you have had COVID you will be immune
- if you are immune, how long the immunity lasts
- if you've had COVID we do not know if getting it a second time would make it more dangerous (a la Dengue)
- if you have had it and have recovered, that you cannot pass it on to someone else (what if you are exposed again after you recover, e.g.)
- how long after you've had it before you are not able to infect someone
Clearly everyone’s risk tolerance is different, but given all that is not known I personally would not meet them now.
My brother, who is a doctor, and who believes he’s been exposed will not come near my family, even if his antibody test is positive for all the reasons above – i.e. that we don’t know enough.
I don’t know how else to interpret “changes my outlook on the risk to me.” And “where the problem is” (not where I live) and “problem not in stores or parks”