Today is the day SAH orders were lifted where I live and many businesses have opened. DH and I decided to drive up to our main shopping/eating/entertainment area mid-afternoon to see if there was any difference from what we saw ten days ago. Holy Hannah! It’s ThunderDome here! Parking lots full, patio dining in full swing, and hardly a mask to be seen among business-as-usual non-SD groups. I can’t tell it’s not four months ago. So, I set up a spreadsheet with the past two days of COVID data in our zip code and the one closest to us and will start tracking new cases and the daily delta. Fingers crossed, but I’m not holding my breath for a great outcome.
So, even though we’re in the no-spend group (but that’s where we always live), looks like our city has decided it’s Mardi Gras.
In the leafy suburban county where I grew up, which has a population of slightly less than 600K, over 850 people have died so far. I hope your county never gets to that level. I hope your county has a plan to prevent that.
As of today, 677 cases/30 deaths in our county, but only 52 cases in our zip (49 in the zip closest to us), so many think it’s a blip and are also relying on the 100+ temps to take care of this thing.
Some parts of the country were much less affected-who knows why, luck, weather, timing of decisions, strains of virus? I wish everyone had good luck in this, or at least that we study what the unlucky counties did so that we can avoid doing. The metropolitan area spent nearly $20 millon on a field hospital that never opened, as hospitals were less than 10% occupied. I guess it was still good to be prepared.
Some more examples. Columns are date, mobility (of mobile phones), and notes (GR = gathering restrictions, EFC = educational facility closure, SHO = stay home order, BC = any business closure, NEBC = all non-essential business closed, TSL = travel severely limited).
California:
3/11 - 8% GR
3/17 -35% EFC, SHO, NEBC
4/8 -55% Lowest mobility
5/4 -48% Latest
Florida:
3/17 -20% EFC, BC
4/3 -55% SHO, GR
4/4 -56% Lowest mobility (to 4/11)
5/4 -43% Latest, end of SHO
Georgia:
3/18 -21% EFC
3/24 -37% GR, BC
4/3 -48% SHO
4/5 -49% Lowest mobility (to 4/9)
5/1 -31% End of SHO
5/4 -29% Latest
Massachusetts:
3/13 -16% GR
3/17 -34% EFC, BC
3/24 -57% NEBC
3/30 -64% Lowest (to 4/14)
5/4 -60% Latest
Michigan:
3/13 -12% GR
3/16 -24% EFC, BC
3/23 -53% NEBC
3/24 -55% SHO
4/3 -67% Lowest mobility (to 4/10)
5/4 -55% Latest
New York:
3/12 -11% GR
3/16 -29% BC
3/18 -38% EFC
3/22 -54% SHO, NEBC
4/6 -66% Lowest mobility (to 4/10)
5/4 -62% Latest
Ohio:
3/12 - 6% GR
3/15 -15% BC
3/16 -18% EFC
3/23 -40% SHO, NEBC
3/30 -50% Lowest mobility (to 4/11)
5/4 -40% End of NEBC, latest
Texas:
3/19 -27% EFC
3/21 -33% GR, BC
4/2 -51% SHO, lowest mobility (to 4/9)
5/1 -37% End of SHO
5/4 -36% Latest
Washington:
3/11 -10% GR
3/13 -15% EFC
3/16 -23% BC
3/23 -46% SHO
3/25 -50% NEBC
3/30 -56% Lowest (to 4/4)
5/4 -49% Latest
Despite differences in how quickly (if at all) various government restrictions were made, mobility dropped greatly during March, bottoming out in early April at -49% to -67%. There has been some increase in mobility since the bottom, but it is still far below normal pre-virus levels.
Some area’s data is warped by the cases in a prison. Example is Santa Barbara County where something like 2/3 of the cases are in the Lompoc prison. Similarly some area’s high case count is due to a single bad outbreak in a nursing home.
Looking at the case mortality ratio from the Johns Hopkins website, only Germany has a better record of keeping their people with COVID alive. ( *I discount the Iran numbers as not being reliable). Belgium, Spain, Italy and the UK have a much worse record of fatalities per case. This eventhough AIUI, some states are counting anyone who died with coronavirus is being counted as dying OF coronavirus.
I missed the Thunderbirds flyover today. Darn. But our doctors and nurses are doing a great job.
The leafy suburban county where I grew up has no prisons. Since I previously posted there seem to be even more deaths than reported earlier.
Population 556,000
939 deaths (closing in on 1 in 500 people in the entire county, dead)
14,492 confirmed cases (I haven’t seen a seroprevalence study, but we’ve got to be looking at something like 25%)
I told my husband just the other day that as you leave North Dallas (I’m personally seeing many masks, very little traffic, people observing social distancing) and go north (Plano to Frisco and north), there is less acknowledgment of this pandemic. The psychology of this is very interesting.
@MaineLonghorn well, I continue to wonder what Maine’s governor will decide about the 14 day quarantine and how long that will last. Today, Bowdoin had a virtual town hall. We heard a lot about possible plans and all of them seem to include going back a little earlier than planned - sometime mid-August. I have to assume that they are working that out with the gov!
Not a comment to anything other than the repeated mantra of “where the science and data leads us” and “we’re listening to the scientists.”
There probably was time when science was mostly independent of policy aims but that window shut about the same time tort law became a growth industry… going to guess the '60s, but I might be off a little. Whether that’s a coincidence or not doesn’t really matter - federal funding for science research has yoked much of it to policy aims.
Gun violence, climate, etc.,… money for research waxes and wanes, depending on who controls purse strings and anyone who believes research tailored to a result isn’t occurring got a degree in something other than one that required stats, or at least enough of an understanding of them to pass.
Additionally: many of the notable figures that we’re all supposed to look up to these days have a history that includes woefully incorrect predictions as to one or another health crisis. For instance: the Imperial College study, the one that predicted millions of deaths in the US from this, wasn’t Ferguson’s first rodeo… he’s been stupendously wrong before.
Yep, he’s a ‘scientist’ but not one much attention should be paid to.
The first problem with this is many wealthy countries have lower smoking rates than the US. The second problem with this is you need a multi-variable regression to control for many confounding variables, not only tobacco use.
A little wave here, from my childhood county up north to @garland’s.
If your state’s plan to not be like New Jersey, not be like Westchester County, not be like New York, not be like Philadelphia, is hoping that things don’t get worse when fall comes around, I urge you to encourage your state’s leaders to come up with a better plan. The downside is too horrible to contemplate.
Nice… it looks like watercraft rentals will open up soon here in my neck of the woods. And the Governor backtracked on his “surrender your identity” to dine requirement. It would have put an enormous pressure on the restaurant staff.