Coronavirus May 2020 - Observations, information, discussion

Good for you guys! I hope new projects keep coming your way.

My friend isn’t so lucky. We used to work together and 5 years ago he tried to convince me to leave with him for a consulting firm. Small company and you pretty much have to find your own work, but they would only take 10% of the income for taxes and advertising expenses. I didn’t leave with him bc I love my company, the stability and the culture it brings. He left and was doing extremely well, his hourly rate is $300/hour, and some time he bills 12-16 hours each day total to various clients. For 5 years straight he never had to sit on the bench. Until now, there is no work coming in! One would think that he has lots of money saving. But apparently his consulting salary is funding his other businesses (long story), now he is over 1M in debt for a business loan that looks like the businesses will go under. I just can’t believe it.

The worst part is that his insurance will be cut off. Told me he couldn’t afford it, but that they are all young and fit and healthy. Which is true but what happens if one of them had an accident? Or got covid? He would have to pay close to 30k a year of health insurance for a family of 4. I honestly don’t know how he will get out of this hole. Declaring Bankruptcy is on the table. I wonder how many people will be declaring bankruptcy at the end of all this, but it feels too soon for my friend.

But what’s equally fascinating is who didn’t get infected. No one who wasn’t in the direct airflow path of the infected diner. Not the waiter who would have been standing higher than the patron. Not the diners who are at the table after. It leaves the question of what better air filtration or plexi glass between table could do.

Did anyone else see this? I’m sort of shocked by it. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/18/airplanes-dont-make-you-sick-really/

Menus: couldn’t the restaurant have something online that you could check with your cell phone? Or is that considered not fancy enough? Certainly, menus have always been fomites and have often additionally been sticky/greasy even at pricier restaurants, to my disgust.

@maya54 to be honest I have always been skeptical when people said they got sick from the flight. Way before covid. It’s such an easy thing to say, it blames no one in particular including oneself (not that anyone should be blamed anyway). It’s an easy way out, for lack of better way of describing it.

It’s a funny thing that Mississippi can be #15 in worst rate of deaths per capita (177/million today), and still be significantly better than the US average of 278/million.

Or maybe have hoods like at the barbeque-at-your-table restaurants that could suck the air over the table (that the people there are breathing out) and blow it outside to be diluted rather than blowing it around the room.

Rosy? Sorry, I must have offended you in some way. I don’t mean to paint a rosy picture, just trying to put the numbers in context. (I’m an actuary, so into the numbers.)

It is a fact that the MS daily death counts include some prior deaths. Of course, those people still died, so total deaths are what they are. But it does change the slope of the curve, no doubt, versus if they had been reported on their actual date of death, especially when you’re talking about such small numbers. You mentioned there was a 21% increase in deaths May 9-16. I don’t know the actual counts on May 9th and 16th, but if May 9th was 15, then May 16th was 18. If a couple of those reported on May 16th actually occurred in May 9th, then you instead went from 17 deaths in the 9th to 16 deaths on the 16th, a 6% decrease. The only way to know the real slope would be for the deaths to be reported on the actual date they occurred, rather than the way they’re doing it now.

Also, I need to correct something I said in my previous post…

Should have said % of positive cases to number of tests (not deaths).

I’m curious, though, what is it that you think MS is doing wrong? Opening too soon? Not enough testing, tracing and treatment?

When the highest rate is much higher than the others, the mean can be significantly more than the median (other examples are income and wealth). Additionally, the US average is a weighted average of the states, so high population states contribute more to the US average.

That’s when you follow the plan…

  • quarantine those who tested positive
  • identify, test and isolate those who came in contact with them
  • treat those who are ill
  • address the conditions at the meat packing plant that lead to the outbreak

If the current capacity to test, trace and treat cannot manage the outbreak, then you need to scale back on the reopening. But if you can manage the outbreak, then you manage it, without shutting down more than necessary.

Texas testing is really low. I have no expectation that effective test and trace will happen in Texas, on the worst day for deaths the guv is talking up reopening. How Harris county is doing so well is what is amazing to me, there is population density and pockets of real disadvantage. I was expecting real carnage. It may just be a timeline issue. I suspect the nursing home/non hospital deaths aren’t being counted, as is often happening elsewhere.

Just discovered the little chart setting icons on each graph. Have those always been there?

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/massachusetts

No they keep adding new features. It’s pretty cool.

This is interesting:

https://cbs12.com/news/local/woman-who-designed-floridas-covid-19-dashboard-has-been-removed-from-her-position

Some of the more casual restaurants will use white boards with their menus written on them. This works well, because when they are out of something, they will just erase it.

I have talked to a few of the local owners, and some will be printing paper menus…just plain paper, not cardstock. They hope to use one or two per table. They will toss after the order is taken.

Some places will have orders done on an iPad (which will be wiped down after each use) not at the tables. Then patrons have their food delivered to their table.

Plenty of workable options for menus.

Restaurant owners in Boston’s North End were on every news station last night, upset that Gov Baker did not open inside dining yesterday. Inside dining is in Phase 2, no earlier than June 8, and likely with capacity limits then. Restaurant owners say their businesses won’t survive at 35% capacity. Or they’ll have to charge $100 for a plate of spaghetti. They are looking into legal action.

I really dislike how Baker went about this. Waiting until the day restrictions were supposed to be lifted before giving businesses any idea when that would be. These restaurants were probably ready to go - and now are losing 2 more weeks. I don’t understand the point of this idea to reveal everything on a single day. He’s gotten good approval from his constituents but this will hurt, necessarily.

Officially taking Sweden off our list of places we might want to retire to (it was never on the list since weather is a big “need” for us, but it certainly never will be now!):

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52704836

I think you’re right. This was not only a bad way for Baker to go about it, but it was not consistent with his behavior and decisions for the past eight weeks.

My guess is that Baker was pressured by other Republicans (since he is R) to do something and do it as soon as 5/18, but that the heavily science-based and frankly much more liberal team of advisors, were not going to green-light a ton of stuff in advance. Particularly when the state legislature has in the past, and could in the future, legislate in opposition to Baker if they felt he was endangering the people of the Commonwealth.

I voted for Baker in his previous race, not in this past one (because he supported a senate candidate whom I would describe as odious), and I think he has generally been a good governor through this crisis.

Our nephew liked Sweden in general, but he never got used to the long winter nights. He’s doing research in Oxford now.