Traffic was much heavier today here in southern Palm Beach County. I have been out every single day during the past month and a half, and today has been the busiest since the early weeks of the crisis. Things are almost looking like we could get back to normal, if people are sensible, look at the actual numbers, and use some common sense.
That seems to be happening. Anecdotally, people around here seem to feel more confident over the past two weeks. Many are questioning whether these sorts of restrictions were really necessary. The answer, of course, at least for Florida has been no. Fewer than 0.006% of the state’s population has died of COVID-19, and we are well past the peak of hospitalizations and deaths. The medical system was never under any stress. A substantial portion of the deaths here, as in the US generally, has been in nursing homes. Obviously, doing things like shutting the schools and beaches down and getting people to wear masks in grocery stores had little to no effect on those deaths.
Going forward, I am very glad to be living in a state whose policy makers seem to be more data driven than those of many of the northern states. The north of Florida is loosening restrictions more quickly, and it has not seen any substantial increase in case numbers, hospitalizations, or deaths over the past few weeks (just the opposite, in fact). I am hoping that the southern counties can continue to learn from this experience and start opening up on a reasonable timetable.
I doubt there is any data that there has been serious transmission of the disease at the beach or in our state parks. Yet, despite no data, they are closed.
Kind of disappointed that even with data showing that kids/youngsters in daycare situations are not getting or transmitting the virus. Yet still only the green light for daycares with less than 12 in a room in our state. Will see if things lift in our state (AL) after next week and when their daycare decides to reopen. Maybe DD will get a call from her daycare this weekend, IDK. Travel 100 miles to babysit the grands for a M-F and go to hubby for the weekend - wash clothes, grocery shopping and cooking. Then travel back 100 miles Sunday afternoon/evening to begin the cycle again. GD turns 2 tomorrow. She will learn the concept of birthday/birthday presents/birthday cupcakes. Almost 10 month old GS is needing his 12 month clothes, so helped DD change out his closet and drawer with the bigger clothes. He was 20 lb at the MD’s a few weeks ago - very healthy thighs and double chin. I think in the last few days he is getting into a growth spurt by how much he is eating. I put cereal in with his bottles and he is really putting it away. Once in a while he is having teething pain and he loves those little Yogis - freeze dried yogurt snacks - it distracts him from the teething issue. As much as I love the time with the GKids, I really want to get into my normal routine and back to working more hours (which is M - F and not able to do while helping with the GKids). It seems SIL’s Army Reserve may be back to meeting in June - that is normally the time I have with the GKids and DD. IDK if I will get outside plants this weekend - I am afraid if I wait I won’t get what I am looking for.
But we know that kids who were on spring break in Florida got sick.
We all saw that one kid saying he didn’t care if he got it - he was going to keep partying on the beach. Then when he got it he said how stupid he had been.
“Weeks before Florida ordered people to stay at home, the coronavirus was well into its insidious spread in the state, infecting residents and visitors who days earlier had danced at beach parties and reveled in theme parks. Only now, as people have gotten sick and recovered from — or succumbed to — Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, has the costly toll of keeping Florida open during the spring break season started to become apparent.”
Fort Lauderdale, Fla. - “If you need motivation to stay-at-home - here you go.
Tectonix released data that shows just how far Florida spring breaker’s could potentially spread the corona virus.
The company tracked random cell phone signals from one beach in Fort Lauderdale that were gathered at the beginning of March.
Chief Operating Officer Jefferson Wilson said they chose a specific beach then using their own technology followed the phone signals for the rest of the month.
“We wanted to see the true footprint of social gathering like spring break beach crowds really have on our society in the face of a global pandemic,” as stated in the video.
The signals spread across Florida, up the east coast and into the mid-west and begins to impact states as far away as Arizona.”
We’ve booked a late June camping trip to Assateague National Seashore. It’s closed now, but hoping it will open by then. An easy place to socially distance.
We had other plans for a couple road trips to national parks, but we aren’t planning to go - the crowds at these places will be off the charts when they reopen.
I’m very interested to see what NJ plans to do this summer - I read that OCNJ is planning a partial opening for Memorial Day. I’m not sure how that is in anyway feasible. I love the place, but it is always extremely crowded.
Nobody “wants” more deaths from this disease. But keeping all of the restrictions in place until there is a vaccine simply isn’t workable. So it is a matter of finding a way of reducing risk enough to make opening up more in line with the other risks we assume by leaving our homes. There’s going to be disagreement in how to do that, sure. But that doesn’t mean there’s ill-will on either side.
I am very leery of moving too quickly; I think it is better to do a gradual approach so there is a chance to reassess every couple of weeks and make sure the numbers aren’t spiking. Still, short of staying on total lockdown for however long it takes to get a vaccine (assuming any vaccine winds up being effective) – yes, it is terrible and inevitable that people are going to die who could have been saved had we maintained restrctions. It is heartbreaking, but that doesn’t mean it is the wrong choice.
We have OCNJ reservations in mid-September. At this point, we are playing it by ear.
Family member had postponed their June wedding, but we got notice yesterday that the place where they planned to have it is “closing indefinitely”. I don’t know exactly what that means…but it’s a family resort with summer stuff, and a small family ski area in the winter. I hope this is a temporary closure for the resort.
Apparently only in Orange County based on yesterday (seems that media speculation of a statewide closure was getting beyond the actual closure). However, some state parks were closed before yesterday.
I’m in one of the “northern states”. Cuomo has started opening up counties with very few cases. For example elective surgeries are now allowed there. Everyone over two has to wear a mask if they can’t maintain a social distance. I don’t listen to his news briefings very often - they are too long! - but I think his decision are generally evidence based. We are in the NYC suburbs and still getting close to 30 new cases a day in our town. Almost a third of the people who have been tested in our county have been positive. That’s 3% of the county population that we know of - many of course have not been tested.
I’m comfortable right now taking on outside jobs, (I’m an architect), but I am not interested in going into people’s kitchens and bathrooms yet.
I wish we understood more about how the virus really spreads. The only study I’ve seen was done by an amateur with insufficient data, but it suggested the real worry is large (mostly) indoor events (weddings, religious institutions, business meetings) or living with someone with the disease. As I was reading it I was reminded of the brilliant recent xkcd cartoon https://m.xkcd.com/2295/ .
What are the beach bars looking like in Florida and California? I can’t see a lot of transmission on the beach, but we all know that spring breakers spend a considerable amount of time packed in bars. And people at the beach or the park need bathrooms and water fountains, so the people that clean those facilities need to have the right cleaners and PPE.
We are going to have many more deaths not because we open back up but because we have a global pandemic and we can’t deploy a magic bullet against it yet. It’s scary, I fully expect my kids to get it and I can’t be there with them. I’m angry, but not at anyone in the US, state or local government, or even at people who don’t wear masks at Walgreens. I’m angry that this was let loose on the world. But targeting the wrong people with that anger won’t help. People will die, and it stinks, and the survivors will carry on.
It is pretty clear that the name of the country, “United” States, is now a farce, since the people are extremely divided on COVID-19, among other things. This division makes it likely that the result will be the worst of both scenarios:
Enough people, for whatever reason, just want to do "normal" things, regardless of COVID-19 risk to themselves or others. They will undermine others' efforts to contain the virus, resulting in it continuing to spread and ensuring that hopes that a short shutdown will stop the virus will not come to pass.
Enough people, for whatever reason, remain fearful of the virus, and will not return to normal economic activity even if all additional government restrictions are lifted. This will keep the economy down, regardless of what actions are taken with respect to the additional government restrictions.
I doubt anyone wants it to happen, but the most likely scenario is a large and growing death toll and long term injuries and disabilities (e.g. lung damage after recovery) and a continuing depressed economy. And everyone will keep blaming each other.
I can’t even imagine using a beach/park restroom at this time! Our private campgrounds opened today, but the showering/restroom facilities will remain closed.
@emilybee The spring breakers were also living in close quarters in hotels, partying at bars and kissing, cuddling, and etc. The flew down in crowded planes or piled a lot of people into a car for the trip. It was Mardi Gras at the beach. I doubt that just walking, running or swimming at the beach has any danger of virus transmission.
I am very risk averse and crowd averse (at all times), but I want to walk the beach and the parks.
The “Disunited States of America” seems to be a more appropriate name right now. COVID-19 is a common enemy. How can we win the war against it with such disunity?
I am actually going to agree with @TatinG on beaches and spring break. Yes, the beaches lured them down there, but they did not spread it from placidly sitting on their own towels away from others, or taking walks. They spread it on planes, in crowded hotels and bars, crowded beach parties, etc. etc. I am one of the most cautious people here, but I do not feel unsafe about walking or even sitting on the beach. I am sure it is far less dangerous than going into a grocery store, which I have not done in over six weeks.
As my H said, normal beach blanket distribution is the original social distancing.
The people on the beach are then going to stop at the market on the way home to pick up dinner, or they work in an essential business like the supermarket (and now in some states hair salons, tattoo parlors.)
We already know what happens when places open up to early. The infection rates skyrocket, along with the death toll, and they are forced to shut down again.
I want to do a lot of things too - but I can’t because I want to protect, not only myself and my family - but also our essential workers - including the cashier at the market, hospital workers, police officers, fire fighters, transit workers, etc, etc., etc.
This isn’t only about me.
4 year olds have tantrums when the can’t get what they want when they want it. Apparently, many adults are the same way. Sad.
The real divide is between those of us who have assets and income and those who have no income and few assets who are really suffering. It’s easy for us to say ‘don’t open too soon’. For them ‘soon’ is now.
The data in California is this: Out of 40,000,000 people, 2,000 have died.
In LA County (the worst hit): Out of 10,000,000 people 1,119 have died. That is .01%.
The state lockdown began March 19, so 6 weeks now.
If the prevention and protection measures were more targeted to those at risk and to those venues at risk (nursing homes and other multi-person housing), the acute economic hardships could be mitigated.
While I am in no way suggesting beaches should open, I truly don’t know what is right there; the beach is not the problem. The spring breaker most likely acquired the virus, not from being outside, but maybe from the bars, restaurants, bonfires, cars, and houses packed with 20 kids sleeping on every available space. Yes, if they are crammed into a tiny space on the beach, sharing drinks and food, of course they will be exposed. The family that goes to the beach and keeps their distance from others, takes all safety precautions, maybe they could find a place to sit for a few hours.
My SIL takes her married children and grandchildren to the beach each summer. The house they rent has a pool, so if they didn’t go to the beach, it wouldn’t be the end of the world. They could still enjoy each others company and have a nice family vacation; easy drive and could avoid stops if needed. Should they still go? I think if the adults decide it is safe to be together in one house, and everyone has been quarantined prior, maybe it is safe. No decision has been made until the last day to submit the remaining payment on the house!