The people I know who have died are under 80. One was 51. Overweight and Latino, so yeah, in the US that puts you at risk, but no other medical conditions. Maybe some of you just don’t’ know anyone who has died. I hope you never have to. I do believe that all these lives count, even the ones in nursing homes, the ones who work in food factories, the ones who live in big cities and in crowded houses. Of course we can’t shut down everything, but we can be as careful as possible.
And the children I know who are behind on their shots are just that, behind. They were told not to come in for regular checkups in April and May. They will get caught up. Some medical systems are doing drive-thru vaccination clinics to get them caught up. I do not think putting off your 15 months shots to 18 months is going to cause polio or measles epidemics. Can someone show me the evidence that this is going to be a problem?
There is so much we don’t know and there is so much uncertainty still that using this pandemic for political posturing should stop. We don’t know.
As to shipping, I have placed two online orders in the past 3 months. Each had 3 items and each ended up coming in 3 different packages from all over the country. (Not Amazon). It was frustrating because I had picked these merchants to try to get everything in one order I know better know. The FedEx and USPS packages were slow but came when they were forecast. The UPS package drove around on a truck “out for delivery” for two days and then sat in a warehouse for a weekend before finally being delivered. YMMV.
Update to my post #4773 about excess deaths. The quote I pulled from the NY Times contained an error, which the Times has just today corrected. The overall point is still the same: huge numbers of excess deaths have been recorded around the world in the past couple of months. The other point is that journalists HAVE been covering excess deaths. Here is the corrected quote:
“These numbers undermine the notion that many people who have died from the virus may soon have died anyway. In Britain, which has recorded more Covid-19 deaths than any country except the United States, 59,000 more people than usual have died since mid-March — and about 14,000 more than have been captured by official death statistics.”
yes, of course, If 2.1 million 65+ die every year, that’s over 166,000 deaths per month from all causes pre-COVID. But since many elderly succumb to the flu, I’m guessing that the death rate is higher in the winter months than the summer.
Understand, but even a spry elderly person can slip and fall, break something big, and die/not recover from surgery. Happens all the time. (One reason why our sports Ortho keeps trying to tell his 86 year old dad to stop running.)
I ordered vanilla online from the vanillaqueen shop.
Of course, I would have done that anyway without Covid considering we were low on vanilla and enjoy theirs + buying in bulk over the smaller bottles available where we shop.
We also ordered some jeans and socks from Kohls because they were needed. The local store wasn’t open, so we went online to Kohls.com. The same overall company should get our $$ and PA doesn’t have a sales tax on clothes, so nothing lost there.
Otherwise, our shopping has been at our local Weis, the local market, Tractor Supply and Agway for chicken and pony supplies, a local game store for birthday presents (ordered via phone and picked up curbside), and a mom+pop drug store. All of it. Pre-Covid I would take a trip to Walmart once or twice per month, but since Covid I don’t care to venture there.
'Tis interesting to see how humans differ and how much some folks tend to toss them all into a group as if there were ever 100% of any behavior trait or belief in any group.
I suppose that happened without Covid too. This is just one more category for people.
So you’re saying that places which have been hit always have refrigerated trucks for the dead due to overcrowded mortuaries and similar things that have made the news since these folks would have died anyway? This is all made up? It’s a normal death rate?
I’m ordering things online. Shipping has been slow but it gets here.
My husband was overnighted something from company headquarters on May 8, UPS, small envelope. It arrived today May 28. I’m sure it got lost until the company started inquiring. But that was unusual.
Returns are taking forever though. I ordered something from Dicks sporting goods that didn’t fit so I had to return it. I’ve given up that I will be reimbursed. Same with an item I had to return from Athleta
You do realize older people also live from year to year right? That some get to be 100?
My mom and dad both died at age 76 (totally separately), but their mothers lived to be 94 and 88 respectively.
92 year old FIL could indeed die any day from doing something - or nothing - but that doesn’t mean he has to go out and try to catch something knowing he is likely to die from it. He doesn’t want to. If he dies fishing or hunting he’ll die happy. Dying in a hospital unable to breathe is hardly his vote for “way to go.” Perhaps it’s yours, but don’t assume it’s everyone’s.
I am of the mind that a lot of people are doing to die from COVID-19 directly and from the unintended consequences of the pandemic (other sectors of medical care shut down or reduced or underutilized, suicide, alcoholism, diseases of despair).
I don’t think it’s easy or obvious to know what to do re: public policy. When I say public policy, I include not only public health policy, but also what to do about the unemployed, under-employed, undocumented workers, health insurance, inflation (food), ruined businesses & bankruptcies, etc, etc.
Yes the UK is in tough shape. But looking at the US numbers in the chart (“23% deaths higher than normal”, i.e., 77% normal deaths), one has to come to a different conclusion.
Nevertheless, their conclusion is extremely strong (“numbers undermine”) when looking only at a 6-week snippet of date and time.
And of course, since COVID affects the elderly the most, the NYT should age-adjust deaths instead of using the national totals. Once you account for age, all of a sudden, the “excess” may not be so great.
If some large percentage of over-80s who died from covid would have died anyway within the year, then we should expect that the over-80 death rate later in the year will be smaller than average, as people who would have died in the ordinary course won’t die because they’re already dead.
Does anyone here actually think this? Does anyone think that in the months remaining in 2020, the over-80 death rate will be less than usual?
Across the country, 42% of the deaths are in nursing homes which house less than 1% of the population (.6%). That is where the testing, PPE and SIP need to be focused. Nursing homes should not be admitting those with COVID 19.
Other than that people with morbid obesity, diabetes, heart conditions and immune compromised systems need to SIP. The very elderly need to shelter in place.
Now that we know more of the basics of this disease, we know who is likely to die and who is not. We cannot live in fear for years. That’s not healthy either. Something like 1/3 of the US population now shows symptoms of anxiety and depression.
How do you calculate that NYC has reached a saturation point at a 25% penetration rate. Any statistics we have are with significant social distancing policies.
"In a handful of countries there has been no clear sign of increased mortality this year. The reasons for this are varied and will become more clear in the months ahead as countries process and certify deaths.
In Norway, Denmark and Finland, demographers say the low mortality is due in part to a less severe flu season this winter — but also because these countries implemented early, severe restrictions to slow the spread of the virus when their outbreaks were smaller and easier to contain."
If folks were going to die anyway… shouldn’t they still have died worldwide? Shutting down early and effectively caused fewer deaths in countries that did it.
But I know I’m not going to change any minds, so folks can take from it what they want to.
Yesterday D took another big adulting step. She purchased a new car. Here’s what we saw…
She had identified the exact vehicle and agreed to the price. H and I came along for the experience. We arrived at the dealership and were told to wait outside. They had set up awnings with tables and chairs. It was about 95 degrees plus the effect of the asphalt. Sadly, some of the hard sell and ‘I’ll have to talk to my manager’ ploys are still in effect. She filled out paperwork (with the one pen given by sales rep). We all wore masks while in the reps company but removed them when he left.
About 90 minutes into this procedure my 7.5 month pregnant D went back into the dealership to ask for a second bottle of water. The receptionist told her she couldn’t just give her one but instead told D to find her sales rep…who was no where to be found. I came in to ‘assist’ the dealership in understanding our displeasure at sitting in the heat and point out that D was feeling rather shaky. We were granted another 4 bottles of water. Oh boy…they lost about 49 cents right there.
I mentioned the heat and timeframe and D’s condition. We were told we could wait in the customer area. This was occupied by a couple of gentlemen who (I’m going to guess) were well into their 70’s. Both had their masks on their chins. The other employees of the dealership had masks in various positions.
They finally get the paperwork to us and won’t take D’s check because it doesn’t have her name printed on it. Yup, never had a reason to get checks other than the ones that she received when opening the account. Luckily I had my checkbook. Oh…but wait…now they have to run MY credit. Okay. How long will it take…oh …just a minute…uh huh…consider me skeptical…
I fill out the credit check form and park myself outside of the ‘finance’ office. I’m promptly told I can’t be standing in the dealership but need to stay in the customer area - with the nice chin masked gentlemen. Um, NO…it’s now over 2 hours and it’s getting hotter outside and we are not sitting shoulder to shoulder with the other customers…
D got her car. It’s nice and exactly what she and her H wanted. She drove a heck of a good bargain.
But if car dealerships in areas with heat like this are going to do business - they better figure out a way to keep their customers from keeling over with heatstroke.
Just an observation to begin here. Essentially no one in my neck of the woods has complained about not being able to go into large retail chain stores during the pandemic. There is quite a bit of concern about how small neighborhood retail stores are suffering though. Lots of people 'round here dislike the experience of shopping in large box stores and avoided it prior to the pandemic. I know I have, and it has nothing to do with keeping myself safe. So as far as ordering online goes, it is nothing new here, although I personally have cut back on it, as I have all shopping, over the past few months.
If I felt that it was physically safer in this pandemic for minimum wage retail workers and the public to work/shop inside large box store environments rather than work/shop in the retail delivery sector, I would likely force myself to shop in the big ol’ stores. But, I haven’t seen evidence of this. And yes, I know about the Amazon warehouses, and other delivery retail health issues.
A query to end this. If you had to pick one, which do you think is safer for workers/shoppers in this pandemic? Large retail or retail delivery? Or, is the choice neither and should we only shop local small retail stores always? (I like this last alternative and would support it if it were possible to get all retail items in my neighborhood, which it currently is not, even though I live in a city.)
Exactly. I know my dad doesn’t have a lot of time remaining, but if he gets COVID-19, his time will DEFINITELY be shortened. So it would still count as a COVID-19 death. Meanwhile, he is still productive and involved in an exciting project concerning the development of a new construction material that could revolutionize the building industry. He wants to stick around long enough to see it become a reality.
Very elderly here means over 60. People with co-morbidities have a somewhat bigger chance of dying, but people who are over 60 have a very much bigger chance of dying. The death rate for infected people in their sixties is about 1 in 200. If you think that is low, we have a different tolerance for risk.
I actually do think this, and have experience analyzing the data. If this pandemic tracks with others, we can expect the impact on mortality rate to result in a lower mortality rate over the next three years.
Excess deaths is how this will be analyzed, however this is not simple or quick. Unfortunately, it is almost impossible to adequately determine while in the midst of the pandemic.
My husband is 66. People’s jaws drop when they hear that, because he looks about ten years younger. He runs three miles, 6 or 7 times a week. He bench presses and works with weights at least five days a week. But he’s at risk because of the lack of a spleen. If he doesn’t get COVID-19, he should have a lot of years left. I’m going to start screaming at people who say, “But it’s just people with other conditions who are at risk of dying if they get the virus…” SO WHAT?? What a stupid thing to say.
He wants to stick around long enough to see it become a reality.