Coronavirus May 2020 - Observations, information, discussion

Parent Cafe
4941

I regret to say that the CDC has abandoned science and can no longer be trusted. They are using political considerations instead of scientific considerations in their covid publications.

For an egregious example, last Friday the CDC put out guidance about re-opening that said churches should “consider suspending or at least decreasing use of choir/musical ensembles and congregant singing, chanting, or reciting during services or other programming,” This is milquetoast advice. At this point, churches shouldn’t have singing or chanting, as this has repeatedly caused superspreader events around the world. But at least they included the advice, even if weakly.

But then the CDC removed even this weak advice. They know that singing in church is dangerous now, and they are not saying so to appease certain religious people who don’t want to hear that bad news.

So I cannot have confidence that their 0.25% IFR is correct, particularly since it would mean that 108% of the residents of Queens have been infected with covid. I don’t need any scientific expert to explain simple math to me. It’s not true that 108% of Queens residents have been infected with covid, obviously, but it’s also not true that 100% have been infected and it’s not true that 50% have been infected.

Moreover, if the IFR is higher in Queens than in other parts of the US, where is it lower and what is the evidence of that? Low IFRs imply high positives in serology tests, but outside of the Northeast, a very small percentage of people turn up positive in serology tests.

4942

There are people who don’t wear masks because they don’t believe these cloth masks are effective and may, in fact, be worse because people are constantly touching their faces to adjust the mask. I am in this camp - I think the virus is too small for a cloth mask to be effective. However, I carry a mask with me if I am ever in a store where other people are wearing a mask. I wear it only to make others feel more secure. (The number of people wearing a mask in the stores I frequent is less each time I visit. Yesterday, some of the employees were also not wearing masks, even though they are mandated by the governor to do so.)

Someone upthread posted a link yesterday to the New England Journal of Medicine:
“We know that wearing a mask outside health care facilities offers little, if any, protection from infection. Public health authorities define a significant exposure to Covid-19 as face-to-face contact within 6 feet with a patient with symptomatic Covid-19 that is sustained for at least a few minutes (and some say more than 10 minutes or even 30 minutes). The chance of catching Covid-19 from a passing interaction in a public space is therefore minimal. In many cases, the desire for widespread masking is a reflexive reaction to anxiety over the pandemic.”

4943

General public announcement - it is not a good idea to keep sanitizer in a hot car, it could loose its effectiveness and may become flammable.

4944

Cardinal Fang

Thank for for your most recent posts, and for simplifying the ideas. Much appreciated.

4945

@“Cardinal Fang” - Google is your friend. In the interests of brevity, I’ll only cite to this one brief NPR article from yesterday, indicating preliminary IFR based on serology testing for Indiana and New York at 0.58% and ~0.5%, respectively: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/28/863944333/antibody-tests-point-to-lower-death-rate-for-the-coronavirus-than-first-thought

We will soon learn some important data. Florida has been undertaking extensive serology testing for almost three weeks now, and is due to report the findings later today. However, we have preliminary data from Miami-Dade County, the largest in Florida (2.7 million people, 633 dead - yes, that’s all), which suggest that COVID penetration is a bit more than 6%. Extrapolating, 633/2,720,000 = 0.00023 * 1/>0.06 = <0.38% IFR.

This estimated IFR is also consistent with practically contiguous Palm Beach County data (cites omitted because we will have much better data later today, but 315/1,500,00 = 0.00021, with significantly older age skew as regards nursing homes and retirement communities).

As I said, we will know much more later today, but given the age skews in Miami-Dade and Palm Beach, 0.38% local IFR is perfectly consistent with the national range of 0.20-0.50% I offered, and not inconsistent with the CDC estimate of 0.26% across all age and risk cohorts. It is also consistent with the Gangelt data from Germany, which also suggested 0.24-0.26% IFR.

The reality is that this virus is not nearly as deadly as initially feared. Due to the order of magnitude greater risks faced by the elderly, your hypothesized 13% IFR for the 80+ cohort is not plausible. Honestly, even a 4% IFR is not going to be plausible given the ranges of estimated IFR across the entire population thus far.

As these data and estimates become more widely known, it will be very difficult to garner public support for continued lockdowns and draconian restrictions, as the risks to the under 65 group appear to be vanishingly small.

4946

My hunch is that the incidence of virus infection ( and thus death) is much less in healthy 80+ yr olds (or those is their 70’s) because they have been staying home since March, and they don’t live in a congregate setting.

4947

I could not agree more, and carry a light cloth sleeve sort of mask myself for the same reason. Sure, on a crowded subway, or in a large crowd in, say, a stadium, there may well be some value. But outdoors, and in fleeting interactions in grocery stores for instance? I’d bet the value is approximately zero, and perhaps less than zero if the hypothesis of increased face touching leading to increased transmission proves out.

As I wrote above somewhere, I have been in multiple stores and indoor spaces every single day since early March here in Palm Beach and Broward Counties. Florida was slow to adopt mask wearing (I documented observed percentages in real time in the earlier thread), but by end of April indoor mask wearing was near universal. This has begun to break down and now I estimate we are probably at around 80-85% indoors in most places, still very high compared with where we were by mid-April, but going in the right direction.

Outdoor mask wearing has never been a thing down here, practically no one did or does this, especially now. People are too sensible here to fall for that. Traffic is almost back to normal, I am seeing groups of kids playing basketball, ladies’ tennis leagues are back up and running (even doubles), beaches are filling up again.

4948

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/05/28/cuomo-to-issue-executive-order-allowing-businesses-to-deny-customers-without-masks/#37d42143539a

4949

After reading the mail discussion from yesterday, I thought I’d add my latest experience.

I tried to mail something to my daughter in Pittsburgh. She never got it. After three weeks it was back in my mailbox with a sticker on it that said “Return to sender, insufficient address, unable to forward”. I took a picture of the envelope and sent it to her asking what I did wrong on the address. She replied that the address was exactly right. She sent me a picture of something else she had recently received with her address on it. It was exactly the same. I don’t know what happened but apparently I cannot mail anything to my daughter. I have some contact lenses for her that I like to mail but there’s no way I’m trusting them to the system after that. She and her BF are planning to come visit in a month and she’ll just have to wait until then to get them.

4950

@me29034

Why don’t you send them Fed Ex?

4951

Certain NYC areas have been hit. They tend to be the ones with a lot of crowding and disregard for social distancing. My son lives in one of them, works in yet another one. That a lot of the nursing homes and other essential services are staffed by those living in these high risk areas is a major concern. No telling who is bringing the virus into the AL homes, but workers certainly a strong possibility.

All hospitals are not permitting visitors. Have an aunt who was just released and celebrated Mother’s Day waving around family from her hospital room window. No visitors allowed during her entire stay. According to her, she was treated poorly and is very upset with the hospital workers there. No fruit or cookie basket for them. I have never left an elderly family member alone in a hospital, and even then, being there with such members, I felt I needed to advocate, assist, intervene. Those were i. The days before the pandemic. So, I am not one but surprised that things are worse now with the pressures that COVID has placed in such places. I don’t believe for an instant that everyone has stepped up. Aunt has firmly stated she does not want to be read it yes to point she will choose to die at home if it comes to that. Another elderly relative refuses to go to hospital now as well after being deprived of her caretaker while there last time. Both adamant

As for mail in ballots, depends upon the state.

4952

Covid-19 testing is apparently readily available in my area now (as is antibody testing). Does anyone know anything about the saliva tests? Weren’t they being used out on the West Coast? I have no intention of doing the stick-it-way-up-your-nose-in-both-nostrils test if I don’t have symptoms or have been exposed to someone who has covid-19. And as far as the antibody test, I haven’t been out enough to justify getting that – I’m sure I would test negative.

4953

There are wonderful members of this forums who are helping supply other members with items they need and can’t find.

We may sometimes disagree and fight. And be frustrated.

But there is an underground of great and generous people here.

4954

Because I prefer not to spend the money. She can wait a month.

4955

Last month, a few people in my area were wearing masks outside. I have not seen anyone wearing a mask outside in the last few weeks. My USTA leagues are starting back up in a couple weeks.

4956

Looking forward to seeing new antibody test results as they come out - if they use reliable tests. Supposedly herd immunity starts at 60%. According to this NYT article, no one is even a third of the way there yet:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/28/upshot/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20200529&instance_id=18910&nl=the-morning&regi_id=133624797&segment_id=29522&te=1&user_id=087d056d0d4145cc2ca6626698618875

Based upon Worldometers numbers as of this typing, 1 in every 657 folks who were residents of NY has died from it. Total numbers - not caring who has had it or not or what age/race/gender they were. And NYC was only close to being 1/3 of the way toward herd immunity if their antibody numbers from early May were close to correct.

But yeah, to many (not me) 1 in every 657 people dying from something isn’t enough to worry about. Happens. “Probably is quite usual, this is just making headlines.”

At least they are the highest rate worldwide - among those who keep decent track of numbers. Some countries aren’t.

I’d still like to know how many are living with side effects. It’s going to be far more than 1/657, but how much more?

We talked with my lad last night. His lungs still don’t allow him to do anything “extra” he used to do - like getting weeds out of his yard. At least he’s back working now (game streaming on the internet) - as long as he regulates how long he does sessions for and gives himself a couple of days off in between.

I’m very content letting those who want to go out there and work toward herd immunity while I wait for medical advances to better the numbers. I feel for anyone who doesn’t have a choice.

I also feel fortunate to have our farm to wait it out on. Who would have thought 23 years ago that our decision to move here would reap this benefit? Life certainly has some strange twists to it!

4957

This happened to me when I was trying to send something to my aunt last fall - well before Covid. I took it to the PO and asked WTH telling them the address was correct and my aunt regularly got mail using it. They resent it for free adding their own note to it. It got there the second time.

4958

My daughter and I both sent Mother’s Day cards to my mother, but neither card ever arrived. I thought it was very strange that both of the cards were lost in the mail. I’ve mailed things to my mother numerous times over the years, and this is the first time anything has been lost. It’s interesting to hear that so many others are having the same experience.

4959

The Mother’s Day card I sent took 2 weeks to arrive. The masks I sent to her arrived in 3 days. Strange times.

4960

The only reason I can think of to wear a mask outside would be if it were impossible to maintain social distancing.

@shuttlebus, @OneMoreToGo2021
However, people who keep insisting “the mask doesn’t protect you”-have you not read the data that suggests that you wear a mask to protect others? That a mask does contain viral particles within the mask to a significant degree, therefore if everyone is wearing them, then we can prevent the asymptomatic and symptomatic people from infecting others because THEY are wearing masks??? Sure, if I’m masked and I’m interacting with an infected person who is un-masked, my little cloth mask isn’t going to do me much good. But if the asymptomatic person I’m interacting with is also masked, then I may well survive that interaction without becoming infected. That is the entire point of the recommendations to wear masks.