Coronavirus May 2020 - Observations, information, discussion

For me, some of my asthma is seasonal and masks can make me feel better. Years ago I had this great one from japan that had a carbon filter and if I put it on I would stop sneezing and feel so much better. It was not hard to breath through. I think there must be some types of masks that are easier and some that are harder to breath through. I hope more than will be comfortable to those finding masks hard to breath in will be available in the coming months.

Greater effectiveness means smaller holes for air (but not the objects to be filtered out like viruses) to pass through. Smaller holes reduce airflow since filter material fibers can only be so thin, and reduced airflow is harder for breathing.

This does not mean that easier to breathe through filter masks with larger holes are completely useless (since smaller objects could still get stuck on the filter material even if the could pass through the holes), but they will not be as effective as those with smaller holes.

I’m reminded of a couple of comments made by a frequent poster on past coronavirus threads, paraphrased below:

'A large number of these studies/papers will be: retracted/sink out of sight/never be heard of again."

(From reading a steady succession of papers that contradict the last, I’m going to judge that one to be completely true.)

'Cat’s out of the bag".

(This one was incorrect only in that the entire litter had actually slipped out the door a few weeks prior and there was no hope of rounding up more than one or two.)

I started making masks in March. First batch I made 3 layers, with the one in the middle out of flannel. I quickly found they were too hot and too hard to breathe through. More recent batches are just 2 layers of cotton, and I’ve found some of the thinner fabrics are better. The NFL fabric has a lot of fabric dye, and are heavier.

If you can’t breathe through it, you won’t wear it.

Two words: Retraction Watch. Actually, one word, and add dot com. Very helpful site.

https://retractionwatch.com/

It is like snopes for scientific publications.

Has anyone else noticed very few people in their community social distancing these days? My PA county is still on full lockdown, but you would never tell the way people are acting. Can’t help but wonder if it will lift at this rate,

Yes, last resort. Still better than nothing. Until we have plenty of availability of anything better.

Alabama beaches reopened Thursday (announced on Tuesday) but with rules for social distancing. So LA (lower AL) is having some businesses rejoicing that they can now earn some money. The condo and vacation rentals are focusing on cleanliness - disinfecting and sanitizing, and now booking up. I imagine those that really love the beach are going. Mayor in N AL (Huntsville) was trying to get conversation going again about reopening the state by regions based on their C19 status - which in many ways makes sense. Last Wed there were 167 new coronovirus cases statewide but only 2 in our N AL county with population of 373,000 people (which includes Huntsville). But everyone accepts the larger picture. The daily death rate for the state has been over 200/day since April 22nd. First death in state was March 25th.

I suspect the beach goers are healthy younger people w/o respiratory or other health issues. Not worth gambling on it IMHO.

IDK when GKids daycare will open - some rooms have more than 12 children, so are not allowed to open. Maybe after this week. Another week of Nana babysitting - which is grand but I miss all those days with H, my job, and my home/routine.

DD’s friend made her two masks with pocket, and she gave me one. I like it and it is more comfortable than the disposable masks. One side has unicorn fabric and the other has polka dots. I will get use in my work facility when I go back (work in skilled care/rehab). I imagine my workplace standards will stay high under our health regulations.

The issue with face masks keeps coming up. I’m not sure why CDC and WHO haven’t been more upfront.

Rated masks (e.g. N95) are tested against 0.3 micron sized particles because, according to National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, masks are least effective filtering out particles of this size due to the physics of particle penetration. N95 mask, for example, is designed to be at least 95% efficient against particles of 0.3 micron in size, but even more efficient against particles of other sizes. The novel coronavirus is around 0.1 micron in size.

Unrated masks still filter out some particles but are less efficient. The efficiency depends on the filter material. Simple physics tells us that finer filter material and more layers increase the efficiency.

Masks work against particle penetration in both directions. When a mask-wearing person coughs, many viruses are trapped on the interior side of the mask, some viruses escape to the exterior. Most of those escaped, however, are still on the exterior surface of the mask (according to recent experiments in a government lab). Even those viruses that manage to leave the exterior surface of the mask, they can’t travel far because they’ve already lost their momenta (thanks to the mask). Masks also work in the other direction. Even though most of those viruses that penetrate the mask similarly sit on the interior surface of the mask, they can still infect the person wearing the mask because his/her mouth and nose are in contact with that surface. However, the concentration of viruses in surrounding air is generally very low (unless you’re in close proximity with a virus carrier who isn’t wearing mask), so the amount of viruses that penetrate the mask is even lower. How much lower depends on the quality of the mask.

200 people a day are dying in Alabama? I thought it was about 300 total now!

Yesterday in Philly, people swarming everywhere, most without masks. Saw it on the news.

Our golf courses are open. We went for a bike ride. Golfers seemed to be doing a great job social distancing. Interesting to see so many families holding together as opposed to groups of men.

When walking the dog around our block, saw four homes having gatherings with multiple cars. One lasted until 1 am, seemed rather large.

In our area of PA I definitely see quarantine fatigue setting in.

Have there been any more studies on virus load potentially making the difference in severity? I recall it being proposed back when the mask/no mask controversy switched to masks from don’t bother.

If it’s still thought to be a determiner, masks of any sort make sense. They won’t stop the virus from reaching someone close, but they will reduce the amount someone gets and if that makes a difference, they’re worth it IMO.

So… curious to know if virus load is still thought to potentially be an issue (how much of a virus someone gets inside their body from an outside source).

Regardless, as long as my state or any store/business I opt to go to requests one, I’ve no reason to make that my hill to die on. They’re annoying, but they don’t hurt me. (I fully understand those with health issues not being able to use them, so no condemnation from me.)

Imo, people are getting a false sense of security because of the opening up of some states.

“Texas reported 1,293 new coronavirus cases on Saturday, the third consecutive day that metric topped 1,000—a level not seen in three weeks. In the same three-day period, at least 115 coronavirus-related deaths were reported, according to state data.”

https://www.thedailybeast.com/heres-how-texas-reopening-is-going-1200-new-coronavirus-cases

Here is a local article:

“Gottlieb’s assessment, however, gets at a big asterisk: the state’s low testing numbers. While Texas has been slowly increasing its testing capacity — the state has averaged little over 15,000 tests per day for the past week in a state of 29 million people — there has not been the dramatic ramp-up that the governor has long promised.

Catherine Troisi, an infectious disease epidemiologist at UT Health School of Public Health, said Texas has not administered enough tests to say with certainty that the state’s infection rate is cause for optimism.

“We’re not testing as many people as we should be,” Troisi said. “Are we testing in vulnerable neighborhoods, grocery store workers, bus drivers?”

“Public health experts want the daily infection rate to remain below 6%. It has averaged just over that threshold during the past week in Texas, and Abbott said his future decisions about business reopenings hinge on whether that trend “stays flat or decreases.” He has set May 18 as the date on which he will announce expanded reopenings if all goes according to plan.

Texas appears to be skipping ahead on White House guidance that says state should wait to begin their reopening process until they see a 14-day downward trajectory in new cases or the infection rate. Texas has not met either of those criteria, especially the former.”

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/04/30/texas-reopening-coronavirus-cases-spike/

While I think more testing would be helpful, most people are more concerned with the death rate (the deceased do get tested). As that is still at 3 per 100k residents in Texas, there isn’t much support for ongoing restrictions.

With so many out there willing to be guinea pigs, we’ll have an answer within a couple of weeks to a month if weather is going to be helpful or not (or any other yet undetermined factor if things don’t get worse). I’m definitely content waiting on the answer rather than being a data point.

I don’t know what our area was like yesterday. I was enjoying the great weather here on our farm and glad we had the farm to enjoy. I feel for those locked in cities, esp if they can’t get to/use parks or beaches safely. We’re near Gettysburg.

Weather certainly seems to have helped Florida, Texas and Calif, but as you say, we should know more soon.

Yeah, no one knows because we don’t truly know where the virus was/wasn’t, if strains of it mattered for severity, or who might have been smart enough to stay home and get over if they thought they were exposed to it vs selfish enough (or asymptomatic) and a super spreader.

It’s now an experiment in action.

What we seem to know is the virus is a nasty little beast to many. Some die, some get lingering heart/lung/brain/clotting/kidney problems and of the latter, it’s with some who only mildly had it.

Even of those who statistically are more likely to die, some don’t. Of those statistically likely to make it, some don’t. We don’t know ahead of time who’s in which category.

I’m definitely not volunteering to take my chances, but fully watching others who are fine with doing so in order to see if more answers emerge.

I also still feel for the innocent victims involved - health care, essential workers, etc. I wish the only ones involved in the experiment were those who fully wanted to be there rather than feeling obligated to do so for their job requirements or finances and similar.

SMH.

“ As more states begin to relax their coronavirus lockdowns, most are falling short of the minimum levels of testing suggested by the federal government and recommended by a variety of public health researchers, an Associated Press analysis has found.“

“With no specific guidelines, states are left to figure out what a successful testing program should be while they simultaneously try to reopen their shattered economies. If states don’t have robust testing, public health experts say they will be unable to detect outbreaks quickly enough to contain them, which could lead to more shutdowns.

“It’s dangerous and irresponsible,” said Lawrence Gostin, a public health specialist at Georgetown University.”

“Researchers at Harvard have calculated that the U.S. needs to be testing roughly 500,000 people per day before considering easing restrictions this month. That’s a nearly 150% increase from the recent daily tally of approximately 200,000 tests.

“I’ve described it and I still describe it as an absolute bare minimum,” said Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute.“

https://www.timesunion.com/news/article/AP-Most-states-fall-short-of-coronavirus-testing-15242280.php

Maybe we could work on improving the accuracy of the testing. That would help a lot. With a false negative rate of 30% in many cases, they are not very reliable.
By the way, all victims of a deadly virus are “innocent”. No moral judgments are appropriate.

I cannot really tell how social distancing is going — I’m inside my own house most of the time.

Yesterday was the first beautiful day in awhile.

I made sure to go to Home Depot earlier in the week, when it was raining, to buy some tomato plants & herbs.

When I walk the dog, it’s along the side streets in the neighborhood (not a trail or bike path), and it’s very quiet.