The earth has billions of people so taking % of deaths to the total population will make the fatalities seem less than they are and mask the huge numbers of people who are and will die. It isn’t about what my own person chance of dying is but the numbers in total and those numbers are large and apparently going to get a lot worse. And the reason they get worse is that people transmit the virus to others. People can be asymptomatic. I do think that it is a very bad idea to go out of one’s home during a pandemic that is killing thousands and is caused by a virus that has exponential growth when there are stay home orders in one’s state and one isn’t an essential worker or having to do a specific task. Sightseeing during a pandemic is not a great thing. Even if someone only got one other person sick with this, that person can spread it and in the end that one exposure could cause many thousands of cases and deaths. I understand mental health is a real issue but barring that, it does appear selfish to be traipsing around during pandemic that is far from under control or at the end now.
I truly wonder what percent of the population would have to die before people doing that would feel, ‘woah, that’s a lot of people, maybe I should stay home.’ How many does it take? I get that people die all the time and we can’t avoid all that but this is something different.
Came back from a grocery run at Walmart. Their supply chain seems to be intact, bc the store was well stocked. The good news was that almost everyone I saw (including workers), had masks on and were social distancing.
@ucbalumnus That’s the same article I read. And a good example of selective editing. The surgical N95’s are okay - those are without the valve, the N95’s with valves do not comply with the city ordinance. There is a picture of the difference between the surgical and valve versions in that article you quoted. That article also clearly states:
Oh good grief. I said the ones with VALVES do not comply. The ones with valves are different than the ones without valves since the ones with valves have valves and the ones without valves do not have valves.
I mostly look at the historical numbers, but I think you’re right about the shaded areas being a range. Here’s what the footnote says on the Deaths per Day chart…
“Shaded area indicates uncertainty.
Uncertainty is the range of values that is likely to include the correct projected estimate for a given data category. Larger uncertainty intervals can result from limited data availability, small studies, and conflicting data, while smaller uncertainty intervals can result from extensive data availability, large studies, and data that are consistent across sources.
The model presented in this tool has a 95% uncertainty interval and is represented by the shaded area(s) on each chart.“
Schools in CT officially closed through the end of this academic year.
I just came back from a short outing. I’m happy to report every single person I saw was wearing a mask. Some confusion over the direction arrows but that seems to always be the case. Also, lots of “browsers” who stop every foot in an aisle to look around…and you can’t pass them or turn around and head in the opposite direction.
Walmart was well stocked…even all paper goods. Limit one. Target practically next door had nothing at all in the paper goods aisle. No paper towels, no TP…just a lot of empty shelves.
My 15 year old who turns 16 in July is praying that Florida does the same. I told him to be careful what he wishes for because I’m a lot stricter than any DMV employee.
@thumper1, I try to be patient in the grocery store, but some people are clueless. This lady had one of the small “half carts” and still managed to block the entire wide aisle. I waited and waited for her to move, but finally gave up and said, “Excuse me, ma’am, could I get by?” She frowned at me, sigh. It’s times like this that I miss Texas. People are just friendlier down there.
I do wonder what they’re thinking to waive road test requirements. What 16 year old has a burning need (not desire) to drive independently at this time? I can see waiving the requirement for age-related retests for drivers with good driving records, but can’t those kids who have been driving with Mom and Dad just keep driving with Mom and Dad?
It’s interesting to compare the 1918 pandemic to today. I was interested in what was done in St. Louis in those days. My grandparents lived through that flu and they never mentioned it. My grandfather never mentioned the time he was out of work for weeks and weeks, so I presume he was not. After all, in those days there was no such thing as unemployment insurance or any welfare program.
St. Louis and some other Midwestern cities was one of the ‘success’ stories of the flu compared to Philadelphia, San Francisco and some others. St. Louis ‘locked down’ more than other places. However, the closures were not nearly as stringent as today’s. Schools, churches, taverns and theaters were closed. (But only for about 6 weeks). Businesses were closed, with exceptions, sporadically as the flu waxed and waned. Large public gatherings were not allowed. There was no victory parade as in Philadelphia. Stores were open but police were there to keep the crowds down. This all happened between mid-November, 1918 and late December, 1918.
The difference I see is this: The St. Louis death rate per 100,000 people was 358/100,000. That was considered ‘good’, a ‘success’ compared to other places.
Extrapolating that to LA County, today, the number of deaths in LA County, at 10 million people would be 35,800. (LA County currently has 1,260 deaths. )
Expectations of life/death were much different 100 years ago. So even with the methods used to contain the flu, the numbers who died were unimaginable by today’s standards.
You’ve got a typo here, @DeeCee36; the reality is way worse. Nine thousand deaths in my home state of NJ is 0.1% of the population, or 0.001 of the population. That’s one in a thousand. As DeeCee36 states, it’s a rate where most people either personally know someone who has passed, or know someone connected to someone who has passed. People of the age group most represented in the Parent Cafe are losing their parents. Everybody is learning of more and more people peripherally connected to them who have died, or they’ve lost a loved one themselves. It’s touching all.
New Jersey’s rate of death of death is similar to the 250,000 deaths nationally that the previous poster was citing as no big deal. When it comes your area, you’ll discover it’s a big deal. Losing one person in a thousand in a period of six weeks is horrific.
It’s always so sad to look back at family history. Multiple kids in the same family dying of diphtheria. “Mary” died in 1882, and then another child was born in 1886 who was also named “Mary!” I’ve seen that repeatedly. Odd custom.
Back from walking doggie. We walked past a city construction project. Two independent contracting companies in two vehicles on the site. Three people. Standing in a small non distanced circle discussing what I assume would be the day’s work plan. Two with no mask in sight, one with a mask on their chin. Sigh.
For myself I’ve noticed, again, now much I touch stuff even when I thing ‘hey, I didn’t touch anything on this outing’. My first mental run thru of what I touched on this outing came out with ‘nothing by my own door knobs and the dog leash’. Then I remember - oh yes, the garbage can where I deposited the poo bags - touched that twice! It’s all so subconscious.
Yes, similarly, my grandmother (born in 1906-ish?) wrote out her family tree for us on a piece of notebook paper and there was a lot of “infant girl” and “infant boy”.
I quite like the idea of my own distancing stick. I’d also like it to have units of length marked on it, both Imperial and metric, please. Now that I think about it - it would be very hard to swing/carry a 6’ stick. I’m imagining even a yardstick at half that length being unwieldy!