It was interesting reading this Pew Research assessment (poll results and thoughts) from today after reading this thread:
More on this thread want to see things opened up quicker than the overall public (or so it seems).
It shows how it breaks down politically and whether one’s state has been shut down or not too. Very interesting data for those who want to take a look at it.
Now I wish they would do one based upon one’s income and job status.
I spoke to a friend in Boston today, his wife is an ICU nurse there. Her major hospital is closing two entire ICU floors. She will be released from her emergency ICU rotation June 1st. Boston is a hotspot that now has an ICU surplus.
I’m very curious about the Quest Diagnostic antibody testing. If they have a reliable test, meaning minimal false negatives/positives, we would have our oldest daughter tested first. She’s the most likely to have been exposed. She was on spring break in Florida when Ohio State called school and told everyone to pack up and go home. From Florida, she flew back to Ohio, packed up and flew back to Massachusetts. She also had respiratory illnesses on and off all year, right up until she got home. Isolation cured it, go figure.
Anyway, we’d have her tested first. Then, if she’s positive, the rest of us would get tested. If negative, we’d probably wait.
As for testing for active virus, I’ll wait until they are more widely available. I don’t go anywhere anyway. And masks are required in public in MA.
It’s not bupkis to me. If the test was positive I’d know I had an asymptomatic case, or at least one that was so mild it didn’t register as anything out of the ordinary. Now the question becomes - if reinfection is an issue - will those with previously mild cases have a similar case the next time around. Or will the immune system go into hyperdrive putting that cohort at greater risk for complications.
To get rid of the virus, you do not need to eliminate transmission, you need to reduce transmission so that it is slower than the recovery rate.
Eliminating large crowds, on its own, reduces the transmission rate. So does everything else, like washing hands, etc.
The chance of a person being infected is driven by how contagious the pathogen is, and by how many people already have it. This virus is moderately contagious (it’s nothing compared to, say, measles or mumps). However, left unchecked, the numbers will grow exponentially, increasing the chances of infection.
When it’s widespread, only the nuclear option will work, with the nuclear option being a lockdown, thereby eliminating direct contact between people. A virus like this coronavirus does not transmit very well via indirect contact. However, if you have 1,000,000 people with the virus, a 0.5% chance of transmission still means that many people are being infected, especially at the beginning of the lock down.
Moreover, many people decided that the lockdown wasn’t for them, and they crowded at the beach, at parties, etc, even after the NYC lockdown. There were also low paid “essential” workers who were not provided with protective clothing or gear, despite constant exposure, etc.
However, even an imperfect lockdown reduced transmission enough that recovery started catching up with transmission. That is why the infection rates slowed in almost every state,
The problem with states opening up is that the rules put in place to reduce transmission are based on assumptions of much wider adherence to these steps than will actual occur. They also ignore the fact that there are many people in every state who will not only ignore the safety regulations, but do the opposite.
Masks are a typical case. These masks do not do much to protect the wearer, they protect everybody else. Therefore, they are useless unless the vast majority of people actually wear them. Imagine that 40% of people do not wear masks, or take any steps. Now figure out that up to 70% of these people can get infected, and that about 30% of the people without masks will be have COVID 19 and be contagious. That means that about 12% of the people with whom you interact are infected and contagious, and that your mask is only 30% protective.
So 60%-70% in full lockdown and 20% in partial, while 10%-20% ignore lockdown, will reduce transmission below recovery. However, 80%-90% in partial and 20%-10% ignoring all precautions, may not, which will result in exponential growth of cases once again.
I wish our state would report hospitalizations along with new cases and deaths. SC is opening back up without the recommended 2 week downward trend. The numbers have been good and not so good. Todays was pretty high compared to last week, BUT as of last week there are several drive-up and walk-in locations in hot spots where anyone (even those outside the area) can be tested without prior screening. As more are tested, I expect higher new cases - what I want to know is if our number of cases serious enough to require hospitalization are also climbing. I feel better about more new cases if serious cases are declining but it’s hard to tell the way they report it.
I am only mildly hopeful for vaccine this year, but am very optimistic that maybe someone will find a good treatment that cuts this off before it gets serious. If testing is more available and can be done sooner after symptoms first appear and something given early enough to keep virus from getting more serious (kind of like tamiflu works if taken soon within a certain time), I would call that a win.
Remdesivir could well be that drug, but we’re not going to find out because all the supply is being given to people at the later stage of disease. Remdesivir is supposed to block viral replication, so it would make more sense to give it to people when the virus is doing the most replication, namely at the beginning of the disease process.
Yes, the supply issue and because remdesivir is IV only, that will mean it’s not going to get much use outside the hospital or infusion center treatment settings.
I disagree that antibody tests are useless (unless they are not accurate).
A valid, accurate positive antibody test would provide the individual the opportunity to donate their plasma to potentially help others. I think I read that each donation serves 4 other patients!
One patient’s experience with receiving donated plasma from a recovered COVID patient:
Be very careful where you donate blood or plasma after having recovered from Covid. There is rampant profiteering going on in some places.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/01/world/coronavirus-news.html
IMO the antibody tests (if pretty accurate) are invaluable. If we survey an entire area, we can learn how many people have already gotten the disease, something that we surely want to know.
If we had a different federal administration, we’d already be doing widespread surveillance, both antibody testing and testing for current infection, so we could know how to proceed.
IFF the tests are ‘pretty accurate’, there is no need for ‘widespread’ testing as proper randomized samples can do the job.
Tonight on ABC news some expert did say that they expect the antibodies to give someone immunity for about a year. Will see if this thought becomes more prevalent. And some vaccine went into phase 2 with 600 participants.
It would be difficult to stratify correctly, because coronavirus outbreaks are localized, you don’t know where they are, and where they are is exactly what you want to discover.
I think they are doing random antibody sampling all over NYS. They are doing it in supermarkets. Don’t know what the results are so far. Plus, if the test they are using is accurate.
DD took a bike ride tonight, an activity permitted in our SIP area.
She told us she passed a house hosting a yard sale, and yes, there were a couple of customers. She passed a mom taking nine young girls on a bike ride together. Technically that was a-okay (the group was 10 total), but in one direction a girl had fallen from her bike, was crying, and the mom was comforting her. On DD’s return ride home it was the same situation with another of the nine.
Everyone has been very good here about masks and social distancing in the grocery store. I am sure if you asked that bike mom or the yard sale folks, they would insist they are not putting anyone in danger and are following the rules. The behavior outside and willingness to ignore the spirit of the law in favor of pushing its technical boundaries suggests quarantine fatigue to me.
Cue the covid cops on Nextdoor…
OK, this happened. We went for a walk and I couldn’t find my phone. I drove the walk and looked everywhere and called my phone and etc. Where was it???
It was in the trash can. So lucky I found it! I have no idea how it got in there. My is symbolizes something in my subconscious. lol!
@Empireapple just let me know if you’d like me to do a wine tasting tour of the Finger Lakes this year like I did last year. I am coming from the NYC suburbs.
I think they are doing random antibody sampling all over NYS. They are doing it in supermarkets. Don’t know what the results are so far. Plus, if the test they are using is accurate.
The results have been 12% positive. When you break it down by county/region it varies greatly but when looked at as a whole population that is the result.