…^I’m keeping a chart like that for my state in my pandemic journal, except just counting hospitalizations and deaths.
Testing and case counts were impossible for me to make sense of, almost from the get-go.
I make a note when clusters of cases are reported. Meat plants, nursing homes, prisons, etc
Adding: kind of imagining toddler grandchildren could use this journal for a project in the future, if they want to.
I’m not sure how it’s a fairy tale to realize that if you test more of a population that you will uncover more of a virus that is prevalent there. I’m speaking in terms of per-capita cases.
Does the US have a lot of cases? Absolutely, we also have a ton of international travel and everyone that brought it here from every corner of the world. We have spread it around our country.
FYI, we are still not the highest in per-capita cases even though we have outtested everyone.
Is it really hard to see that the more you test the more you may find? Test 5% and you can find a certain amount. Test 10% and you’ll probably find a lot more cases.
Not the flu. Not even the bad flu.
Tried to post with the link but it won’t post.
If anyone is interested -title of article below. It’s at sfgate.com
‘What they don’t tell you about surviving COVID-19
‘Recovered’ doesn’t mean healthy again‘
Here’s an article about COVID-19-related deaths in the CUNY system: https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2020/06/23/cuny-system-suffers-more-coronavirus-deaths-any-other-higher-ed-system-us
This article was forwarded to me by someone doing Public Health research https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0965-6 It suggests that those who were asymptomatic but have COVID antibodies have a weaker immune response so may be susceptible to getting it again.
Test adequacy is a function of the size of the population AND the number of infections within the population. We have to test more because of our size, but much more importantly, we have to test more because the sheer number of infections in the country. If we had tested the same number of people back when our infection rate was low that would be something to brag about, but with the current number of infections we’re barely able to keep up.
Venting! My southern VA area whose cases have been rising dramatically (for us, we had hardly any before) over the last couple of weeks… H & older S went to get their hair cut. They are the only 2 people in the place with a mask. None of the 8 stylists nor any of the other patrons are wearing one. They are at least waiting outside until the other finishes. H asked why they weren’t wearing any and they said because it’s phase 2 and they don’t have to. Ack!!! And also older S went to the dentist yesterday for a cleaning before he moves. They didn’t do anything special that he could tell. He was 1 of 3 in the waiting room. 2 wore masks (including him). oh yeah - and our stylist just came back from her Myrtle Beach vacation last week. They probably should have walked out but I guess it’s too late now. Just cross your fingers they will not come down with anything.
And our secretary also came back from her week at Myrtle Beach. My co-worker was telling me about how a guy he knows just tested positive. He was working at our secretary’s church and all 7 workers came down with it. I asked if our secretary knew. He told her. She didn’t seem to care and said “oh, H went this weekend. They didn’t mention anything about it except for pray for X” and went on with what she was doing.
If we quit testing we could definitely get the number of positive cases down to zero!
Hospitalizations are definitely the best indicator for the virus. If we see fewer of these, it could even mean the virus is mutating to a gentler form which is also a plus.
Many of the northeast states have been getting better with the shut downs. I think many of us are cautious in wanting to celebrate that because we know how quickly it could go back the other way. If it’s weather dependent, we had spring where people wanted to be out. With the hotter days of summer…
It wasn’t so long ago that it was late Feb and no one around here was even the least bit worried. It was a Chinese and Washington State problem. The first half of March we tuned in. March 13th was our last day of school and we thought it would just be for two weeks. Now, three months later, we’re just not ready to call it a win. We’re cautiously hopeful and definitely worried about other areas where the numbers aren’t as good.
And in my specific areas… the numbers have started to turn bad again - though “again” isn’t quite accurate as we never had it “bad” like other areas of PA or nearby MD. R has crept up over 1 in my county and the one next door. PA, itself, is only 0.84 so doing better. I hope enough people continue to take it seriously. I’m doubtful having watched our former church’s service online. I lost a lot of respect for some people on Sunday.
How accurate are the tests being used at this point in time?
Thanks in advance to anyone willing to explain.
Well, unless every other country tests based on their population and number of cases we will always be comparing apples to oranges and they’ll always be people saying we have the most total cases, etc. That’s about enough on that.
To a degree, I do think that the more you test the more you find, especially in the early stages of the pandemic’s spread. However, according to Worldometers data, we only rank 26th in terms of per capita testing vs. 9th in per capita deaths and 12th in per capita cases.
I can only get part of that link to work. The pictures are rotating over the top part of the story. Is there any way to get that to stop? Clicking on it just led to memorial pages. It doesn’t budge when I try to move it. I’m not seeing an x. Any other idea to be able to read the whole story?
@Creekland, I’ll see if I can find a better link.
I read that study. If it proves true, that does not bode well for us getting an effective vaccine - or even the value of donating plasma. Fortunately it is still a little too soon to tell for sure
Yes, it does. Thank you very much!
that’s what I was thinking. And Dr Fauci just testified some good news about the vaccine progress:
** Fauci says he is ‘cautiously optimistic’ that vaccine will be available by early 2021 **
In his opening statement, Fauci told members of Congress he was “cautiously optimistic” that an effective vaccine will be available to the American public by the end of this year or the beginning of next year.
The government is providing extensive financial support to 14 vaccine candidates.
“Although you can never guarantee at all the safety and efficacy of a vaccine until you test in the field, we feel cautiously optimistic based on the concerted effort and the fact that we are taking financial risks to be able to be ahead of the game so that when … we get favorable candidates with good results, we will be able to make them available to the American public” within a year of when officials began researching a vaccine in mid-January, Fauci said.
My D19’s summer job is a counselor at an outdoor summer camp. Masks are required for everyone, both the counselors and the children, at all times except while eating, and during that time everyone has to be at least ten feet apart. The children are there for 7–10 hours each day (depending on whether they’re in the before- and/or after-care part of the camp or not).
My daughter reports precisely zero issues with getting the thirtysome 6–7-year-olds at the camp (that’s the age she’s associated with) to wear masks, with the exception of one child who kept taking their mask off last week and thus was summarily ejected from the camp and hasn’t been back.
So saying grown-ups wearing masks is “not going to happen”? Given that early elementary school kids seem to not have an issue with it, you’ll hopefully excuse me for thinking that’s a problem with the people, not the masking requirement.
I have no idea why a smart experienced Fauci is saying there is reason to think a vaccine would be available, implying massive availability and distribution, in January. We can't get testing efficiently sorted, there are no solid antibody tests or correlates of immunity established.
It is much more likely that this first wave (which is nowhere near over) infects the 30% or so, the next wave does the same thing, and by the time the vaccine is out, the efficient virus exquisitely built to kill the old and sick and vulnerable will have done it's job and it will be just another virus that most of us won't get impacted by.
It would be MUCH more responsible to state this more likely picture so we can make real efforts to safeguard the vulnerable if that is the impetus of the population. IMO I doubt that impetus exists, politically or among the people.
We will not shut the country down again. Schools will open, universities will open. There is no alternative.
I too have seen masks used improperly: people wearing them with the nose exposed, people pulling them down, people wearing disposable masks that look like they’ve been used for weeks.
But I also observe that people in Asia seem to have figured this out. That includes Asian children. People of Asian heritage in my area also seem to have figured this out, for whatever reason. So if people in Asia can do it, people in the United States can do it too.
Where I live (central Denver) masks are worn by more than 90% of the people – and many, many young people/teens/kids. In my neighborhood, several parents told their kids – you want to ride your bike? Skateboard? Do sidewalk chalk art? – wear a mask. And the kids are wearing masks, even though technically they don’t have to, being outside. But the parents know kids forget about the 6’ distancing and taught their kids to wear masks.
It can be done.
It’s being done in the countries that have reopened schools.
Adult Americans need to start acting like adults, wear masks, and teach their kids to do so. Otherwise we’ll be in lockdown, unable to cross any borders, and filling our hospitals for months to come if not longer.