Not necessarily. Testing in LAC is up 60% over the prior two week period; thats a lot of new tests and, of course, new found cases. (For some reason, CA was slow to ramp up testing in April, and its only started cranking up in the past few weeks.)
But since test centers are closed again for the unrest, the rest of the week should be really low; expect another surge in cases next week assuming test centers open up.
I’m a “cup is half full” person. NOT a “cup is half empty” person. I’m being cautiously optimistic. I’m hoping states are learning some good protocol by observing states that are opening successfully and with a plan.
Does this mean I’m having a wild party with dozens of my friends? No. But am I leaving my house…yes. Am I picky about where I go, and when. Yes. Have I increased my little circle of places to go to since our state partially opened? Yes.
I think Hope is something that should never be taken away from people. And optimism sure beats pessimism.
My opinion.
I also have a brand new Airbnb next door to me in the coastal San Diego area. It has been rented every weekend since early April. At first it was just couples or a small family but definitely not essential workers. But two weekends ago it was a big party of young people, definitely not same household. They were loud and obnoxious. I don’t think there is any way to enforce the rental restrictions.
City of Seattle is opening new drive through testing sites. We are seeing fewer people referred to testing (duh! because fewer folks experience CLI) so… former emissions testing sites will be Covid testing sites. Lol.
There were three possible outcomes:
A. Virus spread is sufficiently suppressed that, after an almost complete reopening, other techniques like contact tracing could prevent it from being a big problem if an infection cluster is discovered.
B. Virus spread is somewhat suppressed as long as the social distancing restrictions are in place.
C. Social distancing does not prevent virus from exponentially spreading.
Obviously, we did not get A in the US. This would have been obvious victory, though we would still have to implement measures to preserve the victory after going back to (almost) normal. Neither did we get C. This would have been obvious defeat, so we would just have to accept however many infections, deaths, and disabilities caused by the virus when we go back to normal (other than the infections, deaths, and disabilities.
We did mostly get B. There is some more information now that can inform better about what things are more or less risky (e.g. we know now that longer periods of exposure in enclosed spaces is more of a threat than surface contamination).
Edited out some political discussion
ED
IMO, what we’ve learned doesn’t firmly favor either camp.
On one hand, while the death toll remains staggering, it is evident that the virus is not as deadly or as easily transmissable as it was feared to be when the most stringent orders were put in place. Those orders may have been necessary at first in places where hospitals were at risk of being overwhelmed and there was no room for error. However, once we had passed that point–and in places that never saw large outbreaks–I believe certain states were and continue to be too slow in opening up for at least a limited number of relatively low-risk activities. Unless you have a pretty good idea that non-contact based outdoor activity, like walking in the park while preserving distance and keeping good hygenie practices, is a significant risk, it is government overreach to continue forbidding these activities, even if the state hasn’t yet met certain metrics. Similarly it seems like forbidding non-essential businesses from opening on at least a limited basis for so long was likely not worth the cost to the business owners. The risk of transmission through brief contact, like passing someone while shopping in a store, is fairly low, especially if we aren’t talking about a high risk cohort.
I know some will say “better safe than sorry,” and I respect that. But I think when it comes to sweeping restrictions that last for longer than a narrowly defined period (i.e, “until hospitals are not overwhelmed”; “for two weeeks”), the burden is on the state to prove something is dangerous enough to warrant it.
On the other hand, we’ve also learned that opening up too fast can be a recipe for disaster, and that some restrictions may have to be with us for some time. In particular, as much of the disease seems to spread through a relatively small number of “superspreader” events, we need to be very, very cautious in allowing any situation in which large numbers of people will be together for an extended period. It isn’t possible for life to continue as it has been indefinitely - but it is possible that full-capacity theatres and churches, large weddings with packed dance floor, and large parties in general will be impossible for some time.
Unfortunately, it sems too many have retreated to one extreme or the other, which makes forming rational policy difficult.
“I’ll take B for $1000, Alex.”
We are in no man’s land.
We screwed up because of impatience and selfishness.
We have no way now to get even get to A.
I had a dream last night that DH and I went to a series of parties. I didn’t really want to, but for some reason would not refuse. They were all at homes of people I went to high school with but haven’t seen in 30 years. No one was wearing masks, including me, and everyone was getting way too close to me. I was so uncomfortable.
Finally, at one guy’s house, some contraption he owned was spewing water on his wood floors. Another woman and I were trying to figure out how to turn it off. We eventually did, at which point the host came in and clearly thought we had done this somehow. He tossed us a bunch of towels. The other woman left, and I tried to clean up the mess. After I got most of the water up, a cat came in and peed on the floor.
I’m clearly losing it.
We screwed up in my state by not recognizing that we should have protected those in nursing homes and assisted living facilities, which has accounted for over 70% of deaths in my state.
From Politico’s Pulse newsletter (reporting on health care topics):
STATES TO NURSING HOMES: TAKE MORE COVID-19 PATIENTS — States like Michigan, New Mexico and Rhode Island are giving nursing homes more money to establish coronavirus wings or even convert to all-coronavirus facilities. But that’s creating a perverse financial incentive for those with bad track records to bring in sick patients, POLITICO’s Maggie Severns and Rachel Roubein report.
— The measures are meant to separate the sick from the well, and stop Covid-19 from quickly spreading within a facility. But the nursing homes signing up are often among those with low ratings and a history of citations for poor cleanliness or neglecting patients.
— For instance: Eight of 20 nursing homes selected by Michigan’s government to build wings for coronavirus-positive patients are rated “below average” or “much below average” on CMS’ five-star scale.
— The industry and states argue they’re taking the necessary precautions, like conducting frequent inspections. “This has nothing to do with money or the ratings, it had to do with providing care to a population of patients that are in need, and in reality, a population of patients that other skilled nursing facilities did not want to accept,” a spokesperson for a one-star facility in Rhode Island told Maggie and Rachel.
That’s why it’s an excellent analogy - Black Americans are at risk of death just by living their normal lives. I’ve changed lanes without a turn signal by mistake but I wasn’t at risk of being killed in prison because of it. That’s just one example among thousands in my life alone - of White Privilege.
Not too surprising… those with better ratings are probably full because people prefer them, while those with lower ratings are the ones who are more likely to have unused capacity to convert to COVID-19+ space.
The 7-day rolling average of new cases in my county (NOVA) has fallen through the floor. We are are under 100 cases per day for the 1st time since early April. It will keep dropping over the next few days because the new case count has been very small for most of the week.
The county opened up most parks last week and is opening athletic facilities except basketball courts today.
We still haven’t moved to phase 2 but hopefully soon.
Wisconsin news today: "Health officials in Portage County say eight confirmed cases of COVID-19 have been traced to a college graduation party in Stevens Point.
The party was held May 30, officials said.
Patients who tested positive for the virus have been ordered to isolate, while party-goers who had close contact with those patients have been asked to self-quarantine.
The outbreak is still being investigated."
Stevens Point is close to the geographic center of the state. It’s small (population about 27,000) by most measures, but for the part of Wisconsin in which it’s located, it’s a big city.
The NH Governor announced that, as of June 15th, Lakes Region restaurants can open at 100% capacity for indoor dining as long as parties are seated six feet apart.
I don’t think you can space people six feet apart and still achieve 100% capacity, but I can see some restaurant owners finagling 70%+.
We spend a few weeks each summer up there at a lake house. I have relatives up there now, and I can tell you their Facebook page shows them eating out every night and loving every minute of it. It’s like a different country.
Is it right that Michigan has 5298 new cases today? I tried to google for additional information. I am seeing the number on worldmeters. Anyone from Michigan know anything about it?
After reopening schools, Israel considers closing them again due to outbreak; 130 cases at one school alone.
On NPR.
Two weeks after Israel fully reopened schools, a COVID-19 outbreak sweeping through classrooms — including at least 130 cases at a single school — has led officials to close dozens of schools where students and staff were infected. A new policy orders any school where a virus case emerges to close.
The government decision, announced Wednesday evening, comes after more than 200 cases have been confirmed among students and staff at various schools. At least 244 students and school employees have tested positive for the coronavirus, according to the Ministry of Education. At least 42 kindergartens and schools have been shuttered indefinitely. More than 6,800 students and teachers are in home quarantine by government order.
It’s an abrupt reversal of the post-pandemic spirit in Israel as officials lifted most remaining coronavirus restrictions last week. With fewer than 300 deaths in Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had declared victory in early May over the pandemic and last week told Israelis to go to restaurants and “enjoy yourselves.”
But by the weekend, the spike in cases led him to consider reimposing restrictions, including closing all schools. The education minister, Yoav Gallant, argued that the overall number of virus cases in Israeli schools remains low and closing them all would not be justified.
Schools first began to reopen in early May, with classes staggered in smaller groups or “capsules” of students to prevent a wide outbreak. By May 17, limitations on class size were lifted.
The most significant outbreak appeared last week in the Gymnasia Rehavia, a historic middle and high school in Jerusalem. There, 116 students and 14 teachers were infected, according to the Ministry of Education, and the school closed. Built in 1928, its graduates include prominent novelists, politicians and Netanyahu’s late brother.
Health officials said they’re investigating how the virus spread there. A teacher told NPR a seventh-grader was first discovered to be carrying the virus and the entire grade was ordered to quarantine at home. Then a ninth-grader tested positive, and the school was shut down.
“It was a mistake to go back to school in this format,” the teacher said. She spoke on condition of anonymity because teachers were ordered not to speak with the press and she feared losing her job if identified.
Across Israel, many parents have yanked their children from schools that remain open. When the Collège des Frères, a French Roman Catholic school in the city of Jaffa, announced that the father of some students had tested positive for the virus, his children’s classmates were sent home — but other parents pulled their children out, too.
Dr. Arnon Afek, who is helping manage Israel’s coronavirus response, played down the outbreak, saying a spike in cases was expected when schools reopened. “It wasn’t a surprise,” he said. “It happened also in South Korea and Singapore.”
Detroit Free Press says that Michigan has 284 new cases, 20 new deaths.
I wonder if Worldmeters has it wrong for Michigan.