"And it’s still not just a choice between stem and stem ECs. Still not, for tippy tops. "
Can you clarify what you mean by this?
OP - I’ll try to help but a lot of the info is out there, which you should be able to google and use when doing your app.
The UW direct to CS admit rate was around 28% for in-state students, the gpa for direct to CS was 3.93-4.00 and ACT was 34-36, so you’re fine there. Looks like you took a lot of challenging classes and did well, that will really help. For DA engineering, they clearly say that the greatest emphasis will be placed on academic preparation. No recommendations so it’ll come down to academics, ECs, and essays.
As lookingforward mentions though your CS ECs are light, so you have to play up your programming projects and Olympiad award and really nail the essays. I can’t see you chances being lower than 28% since your academic preparation is excellent, but without of course knowing the other applicants, it’s tough these days on giving estimates, but since you asked, I’ll say 40-ish. Talk to your GC about getting Naviance info for your hs to uw and uw cs, if they have that detail.
Take a look at the CS DA website:
https://www.cs.washington.edu/academics/ugrad/admissions/direct
and note this - “Computer Science DA is designed primarily for Washington State resident students.”
So that’s encouraging, good luck!