If running for a school is a priority, your son would be best off expanding the list. There are all kinds of schools out there at all levels that can be great academically and athletically. Rice, Harvey Mudd, Colorado Mines, Santa Clara, etc, etc.
Based on the academic profile I’m sort of assuming this is a kid who cares a lot about the academic side of things. That might even include preferring to run with teammates who feel the same way. I wouldn’t assume this is a given at all programs.
I’d think through the realistic possibilities and then plan for each.
He could run 1:53/4:10 next year and have quite a few options. That’s for sure possible but the probability is fairly low (just in general based on where he is, without knowing specifics).
More likely is something like 1:58/4:25. Still good but the strategy and reasonable expectations about where he might run would look completely different.
In between those extremes is where it gets interesting because he might be just shy of serious SEC interest, but in a spot where strong academic schools can help with admissions support. Or lower level (athletically) D1s might offer partial scholarships or admissions support.
Or maybe he finds as his aerobic development improves he’s more distance-oriented and the ability to contribute in XC opens up possibilities.
Being open to that range of possibilities would really help him feel like he has a set of options that include running.
And yes, he could end up with a breakthrough senior year which would open up other possibilities. But that’d happen after most application deadlines. So, he can’t base his application or recruiting strategy on that. (If it does happen, he can change plans at that point).
I’d just really caution to be realistic and take what comes. I’ve seen too many kids convince themselves that they need to run certain times to get recruited to certain schools that they end up frustrated for most of their HS careers (and often that’s it for their competitive running experience).