<p>Based on previous yield rates and number of applicants, I’d say around 8 or 9 percent acceptance rate for RD</p>
<p>I agree that yield isn’t an indicator of quality in that high school students who make their decisions haven’t been students on any of the campuses yet, so in a way the decisions they make will naturally be naive “best guesses” for their fits, on the hopes that they made the right choice. At the same time, with all of the shenanigans going on with regard to yield rates and their presentation to others, you can’t completely discard it as utter nonsense. However manipulated, there is some semblance of reality and/or facts in it. It’s more of the idea that those who chose not to attend a particular university decided that the expected quality, based on a variety of factors, didn’t fit them well. It’s not necessarily about having high or low quality, there’s more lateral movement here if that makes sense.</p>
<p>The problem with yield is everything is apple and oranges. While Duke has around a 33% yield the accepted students are cross applicants to the Harvard, Yale, Princeton, etc. colleges . A lower ranked school could have a higher yield because it is the most selective in a less selective cross applicant pool of colleges. If Duke wanted a higher yield short term the answer would be to admit students where the competition is Wake Forest. My quess is they will continue to go for the best applicants knowing that it will negatively impact yield.</p>
<p>If Duke starts competing with less selective schools, it will not longer be Duke.</p>
<p>Correct. That is why a 33% RD yield should not be seen as a bad number. Better to bat 300 in the majors then 600 in AA. With what Duke has done in the ED round the RD acceptance rate will go from 12% in 2016 to around 9%. Total yield will go from 42% to 50%. The overall acceptance rate will go from 13% to 11%.</p>
<p>The poster who said that Duke would no longer be Duke if it did that summed it up perfectly.</p>