I just did a little data digging on the state department website. The data is not all in (obviously) but it appears as though the number of incoming freshman that are international students will take a big jump this year. Basically, it seems as though 2017 was just a blip due to politics. The trends have all been steady for many years now as schools have seen falling acceptance rates. But this year could be an anomaly in that many students who did not apply to US schools for matriculation in 2017 may have simply deferred their applications to 2018. Unfortunately, there is no way to know what will happen in 2019. There won’t be any more impact from the “Trump” effect but the rising trend appears to be back in play. There is no way to know which is a bigger factor for 2019 applicants.
You’re assuming that the news won’t change between now and next spring. The US could become more or less appealing to international students in the next 9 months from a number of possible changes. We don’t know. Trade war? Shooting war? Diplomatic crises? Immigration law changes? All of those could have an impact.
But this year’s kids are always paying for last year’s admissions mistakes. If the yield is higher than expected this year, the school will admit fewer and have a bigger waitlist next year. That’s how it works. It could be good news for a given student - they didn’t have a single applicant who wanted to study medieval history last year, let’s admit everyone who might be majoring in it!
@Huskymaniac What are you trying to imply? That increased international applicants has resulted in lower admission rates for domestic students?
In another post of yours, you wrote
For goodness’s sake, please.
@MrElonMusk I don’t have to imply anything. It is fact that lower acceptance rates are largely due to international students. I am not implying that they are having a specific impact on individual admissions decisions at specific schools. For the most part, it is just a numbers game and the overall acceptance rate is what is being impacted. Do I believe some American kids are being pushed out by the massive number of international students? Yes. It is one factor.
I will also say that I think the broken system used by admissions folks is partially due to the massive number of international students applying to elite schools. It is one factor. Social engineering is another. The impact the massive number of international students is having on the admissions process is that admissions folks have much less time to get to know these kids through their applications. So they “streamline” the process. That, in turn, means that they look for specific things instead of taking the time to reflect on what they are seeing.
That’s a bold statement. Do you have numbers to support that?
Really. Evidence?
I propose different reasons: 1. more and more students, both domestically and abroad, are increasing the number of schools they apply to. Colleges are aware of this and thus, are more picky about who they accept. They also want to make sure yield is protected. 2. falling acceptance rates comes from #1 that I mentioned but also the fact that there are more applicants each year (aka population growth)
@Huskymaniac - Just because you see cause and effect…doesn’t mean it is cause and effect. There is NO evidence I have seen that “lower acceptance rates are largely due to international students.” In fact, it is more likely the rising number of applications submitted by US students that is the contributing figure.
Are you aware that for most countries only a handful of students from any foreign country will be admitted to any elite school? It doesn’t matter how many students apply from India, for example. They are all competing for the few seats set aside for Indian students.
The mere fact that you even think that selecting a class is “social engineering” - well I guess that says more about you than anything else.
If you wish to reduce the applications and therefore allow admissions to read each application more deeply…I would suggest a limit on how many colleges US students can apply to - that should cut WAY down on application to the biggest reach schools.
Well, there’s your excuse. You won’t have to worry about purring your best foot forward, applying to the best school you can get into, because it’s out of your hands, right? The die has been cast, and you’re powerless in this big social engineering fiasco. You won’t get in. Not because you’re not good enough, of course. But because of things completely out of your control.
Convenient.
Where are the numbers? Where are the facts? Identify specific colleges where this occurs, with verifiable data.
Yes, I have data to support my statement that falling acceptance rates are directly tied to international student growth. Yes, the common app had an impact and, perhaps, applicants continue to increase the number of schools they apply to but the common app impact has largely leveled off. The fact that acceptance rates continue to plummet is largely due to the continued growth in international applicants plus the children of the previous generation of international students who are now college age. Both are a factor and both swamp other factors.
As for the impact on the admissions process, do I need evidence to have an opinion? The opinion is based on the exponential growth in the number of applications being received by colleges and, in particular, elite colleges. To me, it is common sense that they are unable to consider each application as thoroughly as they once did. I also believe this is why they are now looking for “pointed” applicants versus well rounded applicants. Points are easy to see. When “well rounded” was in and they started to get flooded with a ton of well rounded applicants, they probably had a hard time figuring out which ones were contrived and which ones were genuine.
But we are deviating from the original topic which is that it appears as though the growth in international students will resume for the class of 2022, why and what impact will that have on the class of 2023.
If you have some numbers then please post them.
Some top colleges were overenrolled for class of 2021. There was a failure of yield prediction. Many of those same schools accepted fewer total (not just percent) students for class of 2022, at least as of March. We’ll see how the waitlists shake out. In that regard, failure to accurately predict yield for 2021 may have affected the applicants for 2022.
Even if international applicants increased in total, that doesn’t tell us much about the number of international applicants that were accepted by top schools. My understanding was that they are evaluated in a separate pool from domestic applicants.
Where did I say that the number of international students is rapidly rising at any particular school? Please refrain from putting words in my mouth and try to stay on topic. The percentage of the incoming classes which is international at most elite schools is rising slowly and much more slowly than the number of overall international students. I made sure to not imply otherwise. But all that means is that most of these international students are being pushed down to lower tiered schools. However, many of them do indeed apply to the elite schools and that is why the acceptance rates are falling rapidly at those schools.
What you call virtuous initiatives, I call social engineering. Clearly this bothers you as you immediately attacked me as white male Christian, as if that would be a bad thing, true or not. And what is with the english speaking thing? Are you advocating for american schools to accept kids that don’t speak english?
The American Talent Initiative, and its impact on admissions, is one example of social engineering. You probably love it. While I feel that every worthy student should be enabled to attend A college, I don’t support colleges specifically giving preference to these students and especially when their merits are far below other applicants that are being rejected. As a fan of Mount Holyoke, you are well aware of these initiatives. To me, if a school is giving preference to otherwise equally qualified applicants, fine. But when there is a large and obvious gap in the merit of the applicants and preference is still given to one group, for whatever reason, that is social engineering. There is no “justice” in that. And, for the record, I am a big fan of diversity and I am ok with preference being given, to a degree, if that enables diversity. But, at some point, it becomes more about virtue signaling than logic.
@Huskymaniac where is the data? I believe everyone would like to see it.
Oh really? I think the original topic you have attempted to hold a discussion on is flawed, so the posters here are correcting it, that’s all.
I speak a second language. Does that mean I’m not allowed to go to college? Wonderful.
Right. Off record, I would assume you believe the complete opposite, based on what you’ve said here so far.
“So they “streamline” the process. That, in turn, means that they look for specific things instead of taking the time to reflect on what they are seeing.” You do not know this, but it comes across as a certainty. I don’t see you calling it opinion or a guess. Granted, later you modified.
Our posting histories are available. No one should be surprised that another looks for some context or perspective.
“To me, it is common sense that they are unable to consider each application as thoroughly as they once did. I also believe this is why they are now looking for “pointed” applicants versus well rounded applicants.” Sorry, no. The top schools one is usually worried about continue to read whole files. You can’t know whether they look for pointy, unless you read apps and reviews. Otoh, CCis convinces pointy is key- but that’s CC.
Nor do you “know” whose merits are worthy of a place and, Isuspec, what the full range of “merits” is.
Using the term “social engineering” feels like throwing down a gauntlet, looking for a rise in others. So, we object.
MODERATOR’S NOTE:
Closing thread.
Per the rules of the forum: