I guess if I try and convert with the knowledge I have about GPA and my school system, I have a GPA of 3.89 out of 4.0
Would Banneker Key scholarships be “toss up” for any applicant?
Banneker/Key would be a low probability outcome. I sorted my list based on the likelihood of admission, not the likelihood of affordability.
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Since admission but too expensive = rejection, it would be better for the OP to categorize the list by probability of getting the scholarship needed for affordability.
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You don’t need to try to convert your GPA to a US scale as it is comparing apples and oranges. The AOs will know. Additionally @MYOS1634 provided excellent context upthread for others less familiar with your system. Simply informing us you’re one of the top 1-2% at your school is enough. 
Once you’ve looked at some of the schools suggested by AustenNut, let us know your thoughts. I’ll put together a list of competitive merit schools later (all reaches), but your first step should be identifying likely schools (whether in the US or Europe).
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You might reach out to schools with auto merit scholarships - based on GPA and on SAT - two that come to mind (but there are more) are Alabama and Mississippi State.
U of Arizona provides merit on GPA only.
You might explain to them your situation and see where they place you on their GPA scholarship matrix.
Otherwise, we all might make suggestions but because you don’t have an unweighted GPA on a 4 point scale, they may not be valid.
Now, these aren’t the types of names you seek - but these are the types of schools where top students attend, because it’s the difference between affordability and in some cases - not attending a 4 year school at all. These are auto merit - meaning, you aren’t competing with others to get the $$. You have the stats, you get the $$ so you need at least one but preferably 2-3 to ensure that when the process is all done - you have a home to land.
I am not sure that we know. I think that references are probably quite important. If you are involved in anything competitive, then competing fairly and getting along with others are important, and being highly competitive (ie, winning) probably also matters. For MIT quite a few high A+'s in math and science, and 800’s on SAT tests, probably help.
I think that I might have gotten lucky wrt MIT admissions for several reasons. One is that I sort of backed into being the president of the chess club as a senior in high school, but I had absolutely no idea whatsoever what to do as president of the chess club. I therefore openly asked for suggestions. I got quite a few good suggestions, and helped whomever made each suggestion to put it into action. It was only years later that I realized that listening is a major part of leadership – I just backed into it sort of by mistake. One my references was my guidance counselor, who was also the faculty advisor for the chess club.
This does sound hopeful. Whoever writes your references is likely to know this.
For perhaps “top 10” schools paying for the school might be as challenging as getting admitted. For schools in the top 50 or 100, you are likely to find multiple schools where you will be admitted and where you can get merit based aid.
I am not knowledgeable enough to gauge any particular student’s chances for sufficient Big Merit Aid™ at colleges that do not have a chart. While one can look at the percentage of students without financial need who receive merit aid and what the average merit aid package is, that doesn’t necessarily tell you enough detail about the number of big scholarships, the competitiveness of the pool, and how well the student meets that particular school/scholarship’s priorities, etc. Additionally, some colleges will give merit aid pre-reads, but most do not. As it can already be quite time-consuming to provide the level of information I do include, it would be extremely time-intensive (and likely not that accurate) for me to guess for merit aid as well. That is the type of research that applicants are best doing rather than anonymous strangers on a forum.
For the schools that you become interested in that have the auto merit charts, you can confirm with them about your situation (for peace of mind and to show demonstrated interest…as in, hey, you might want to consider me for a top award because I actually am interested in your school).
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I think I should make this clear, as I believe I’m not doing so right now. I’ve worked out the financials part of my education with my parents, and we’ve looked into the banking details and such. We’ve spent a large portion of time researching whether the schools on my will be affordable in the long run for myself and the entire family, and we’ve come to the conclusion that for each of the t20 schools I’m applying to, the total cost (after financial aid) will range between 40k to 50k per year.
After talking with my parents, we said that I can take out a loan (with their cosignatures), and at the end of college have a debt of approximately 80k (before interest begins to compound on it). Essentially what I hope to communicate is that the schools I’ve chosen to apply to would be technically financially plausible for my family, but I will just have to put in extra work (which I’m willing to do of course for a chance at a college in the t20s).
My main concern isn’t about financials at the moment, due to us having thought about it for a long time, and referred to a third party about it as well for assistance. My main question is now whether or not I have a decent (with the selectivity of these colleges in mind for reference) chance at getting into even one of my top choices/reach schools with my application.
Maybe it seems overly worrying of me to ask all this, but I’m just very worried as I’ve been told by many that I have “no shot” or that it would be a waste of money to even apply with my grades and ECs.
I also appreciate all the responses, and college recommendations, and I’ll most definitely put them on my list of potential colleges.
Thanks 
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As other posters have said, you should not try to convert. If you’re looking for a yardstick, at most colleges your exceptional IB and German grades and would (very easily) be equivalent to a 4.0 GPA, with highest rigor.
Your IB grades are that good. @MYOS1634 will be able to elaborate further on this, but just for people who are not familiar with the IB system- these grades are top level for any Ivy+. Oxford normally requires around 40/45 for IB, OP is well beyond that. Impressive grades, both German and IB. I think academically and EC-wise you have nothing to fear. The budget will be your most important concern (80-100k debt is bad, methinks). GL
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1.1 is amazing and top-notch nationally. IB38+, especially 40+, also. You don’t need a GPA, these scores will be under stable (for the record it’d be 4.0.)
Your ECs are excellent too. In short you can apply anywhere.
Unfortunately in the US you can get into a world-class university and not attend for financial reasons.
You can’t get more than 5.5k in federal loans and your parents won’t qualify for US loans since they’re based in Germany. And with the cost of college studies in Germany or Europe in general I don’t know if they’ll be able to borrow 80k from German banks for your studies. Your parents need to check with their bank ASAP.
So, you can have a three tier approach
- Germany - with a 1.1/40+ you are admitted everywhere.
- ETZH (should be well within budget), British universities (check budget), potentially Polytechnique in Paris (program in English)
- American universities, mostly programs within budget or with merit scholarships. Although you can’t be too picky about environment,you need to calibrate your application based on what will be relatively comfortable or not too uncomfortable (keeping in mind it’ll be a culture shock in all cases) - for instance, attending university at Mississippi State would be like attending college in Sonneberg. From Berlin it might be a bit too much.
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Fantastic, knowledgeable post. I always learn from you.
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I think you definitely have a shot at the schools on your list and it would not be a waste of money to apply, with respect to your chances for admission (i.e. not thinking about the affordability aspect of the conversation).
Whether it is a “decent” chance, how are you defining decent? All of these schools are low probability admits, i.e. less than 20%, with most having admit rates in the single digits. For the type of schools you’re thinking about, I think that people either have “a” shot (i.e. 99% of strong candidates) or would be a likely/prescreened admit (athletes with a slot from the coach and a successful pre-read), somebody with a Nobel or Oscar, somebody who met the academic bar who was also legacy many times over and whose family has donated at least 9 figures to the school, etc…
I would find out whether the third party has any incentive with respect to you/your family taking out additional loans (i.e. was this a banker or an investment professional who gets a commission for referring you to the loan company, etc). Additionally, I would get a second opinion making sure that it is from an unbiased source. I’m not sure if your family would qualify for this program, but perhaps they may have a list of advisors that they recommend:
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I really like the U of Cincinnati suggestion!
OP - U of Cincinnati would not only be a safety for you and likely offer you merit, they also are a co-op school so you would be earning a good amount of money as well. I’d also add Drexel to your list for another co-op school in a big city where you would also see merit. Both schools have power lifting clubs.
Don’t underestimate the burden of $80K of college debt. It potentially takes away flexibility for the ideal job, location, and the ability to start saving and investing for your future.
IMO, with your profile and for your intended major, it’s unnecessary to take on that much debt and you should be able to find schools that come in closer to budget.
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Yeah we have checked with banks about a year ago when I started to make my college list. However, one question is why would my parents not qualify for federal aid as they are both US nationals? I’m not familiar with the system so sorry if this is a dumb question…
I don’t know if they’d qualify for Parent Plus - typically, residing abroad makes the potential borrower a great risk, since the bank couldn’t seize their property if they failed to pay them back.
ETA: just checked - alas, the website isn’t clear. They say there can be additional conditions but they’re mostly linked to credit history. The assumption is that the family lives stateside.
Do your parents have a US credit number?
Do they own property in the US?
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This student has clearly stated that they do not want to attend college in the south. I think we should respect the wishes of the students posting…and try to come up with ideas elsewhere.
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Yes, my parents have a US credit number
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@kelsmom if these parents are U.S. citizens living abroad, are they eligible for the Parent Plus Loan?