<p>The news today was unbelievably good. Apparently the European debt crisis has been “solved,” so the markets soared. But the GDP grew faster this quarter than last, and faster last quarter than the one before. </p>
<p>It would be so fantastic if the economy were finally out of the woods.</p>
<p>Not less then 3 weeks ago, the world was going to end,lol…Now, all is well? Unlikely…where are the jobs? What happens to thise who are about to come off unemployment benefits?.. Housing? Perhaps it is bottoming, but the days of decent appreciation are a ways off…low interest rates will provice downside protection, as the risk trade is on…but when the economy shows real ‘life’ ,interest rates might move higher, and perhaps snuff out the stock market</p>
<p>GDP growth of 2.5 percent is not great for a recovery but it is very good news compared to the prior two quarter’s growth. ECRI has not changed its recession forecast and that worries me, but it would really be fantastic if this economy could improve.</p>
<p>I hope this is the beginning of an improvement, but the economy isn’t going to be healthy again until the housing sector rights itself. That (I hate to say it) isn’t going to happen any time soon. If the banks would put more energy into writing mortgage modifications and less into foreclosing, it would help.</p>
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<p>Exactly. Which goes to show that stock market is not a rational entity at the moment and is driven by fear and irrational exuberance.</p>
<p>We’ve been seeing the random ‘green shoot’ for the last three years but it never takes hold. While the increase in GDP is great news, it’s one quarter out of a lackluster year. I’m not ready to celebrate until we see at least 2 consecutive quarters of decent growth. While 2.5% is better than it has been, it’s still not enough to produce new jobs.</p>
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<p>As it should. These guys predicted the 2001 and the 2008 recessions. “These two predictions were followed by brief market rallies lasting about two months, before U.S. equity markets took significant losses.”</p>
<p>[ECRI’s</a> Recession Call: Market Crash To Follow? - Seeking Alpha](<a href=“http://seekingalpha.com/article/302379-ecri-s-recession-call-market-crash-to-follow]ECRI’s”>http://seekingalpha.com/article/302379-ecri-s-recession-call-market-crash-to-follow)</p>
<p>The European solution is a patch so the current crisis is averted and the can has been kicked down the road. But Europe will be a problem again in the near future. Just like the banking/housing crisis over here - we got through the crisis but there are still a lot of problems.</p>
<p>BTW, my paid technical adviser went long about three weeks ago based on the technicals.</p>
<p>Good for Wall St. No change for Main St. Ho hum.</p>
<p>I also find these dramatic shifts in sentiment troubling. A stock goes down, I buy it, and they keep pushing it lower and lower to the point where I wonder if perhaps I missed that the company is actually going bankrupt… then it starts going up, and I sell at a reasonable profit and it keeps running up and I begin to wonder if perhaps I missed that this company has discovered their world headquarters sits on a major gold strike. But then I read an interview of a “typical bank trader” and it all begins to make sense.</p>
<p>I see differences on Main St - I need to do an update on the unemployed graduate thread.</p>
<p>The media plays a significant role is tuning the public’s sentiment. Just follow headlines on YF - you don’t really need to read the useless articles, because the headlines can tell pretty well what the hedgie manipulators want to do with the markets on any given day. If the news is good and it does not bode well for their plans, the headlines read, “the glass is almost half empty!! Sell everything!” One day all is roses, rainbows and unicorns, and the next day it is nuclear doom and annihilation. Meanwhile, the economy is limping along…</p>
<p>Hedge funds aren’t doing so well these days. It’s not a lot of fun fighting over a shrinking pot.</p>
<p>Perhaps that’s the attractiveness of technical trading - you ignore the news.</p>
<p>“Perhaps that’s the attractiveness of technical trading - you ignore the news.” Exactly. Who has the time to read that garbage?</p>
<p>it’s not over until the euro collapses</p>
<p>And the drama continues…</p>
<p>Wall St slides on Greek referendum call [Global</a> Markets News | Reuters.com](<a href=“http://www.reuters.com/finance/markets]Global”>http://www.reuters.com/finance/markets)</p>
<p>Greece Faces Meltdown After Bailout Vote Bombshell [News</a> Headlines](<a href=“http://www.cnbc.com/id/45119711]News”>http://www.cnbc.com/id/45119711) </p>
<p>[Greek</a> turmoil sends US and world markets lower - Seeking Alpha](<a href=“http://seekingalpha.com/news-article/2059140-greek-turmoil-sends-us-and-world-markets-lower]Greek”>http://seekingalpha.com/news-article/2059140-greek-turmoil-sends-us-and-world-markets-lower)</p>
<p>What is Papandreou thinking???</p>
<p>Maybe this article summarizes what he was thinking:</p>
<p>Is Greece the most powerful country in the world?Nov 01, 2011, 11:08
Posted by
Merryn Somerset Webb</p>
<p>The idea that Greece should have a referendum to decide on whether or not to accept the bail-out package from the rest of us has clearly come as a bit of a shock to the politicians who like to think they run the eurozone. So far, absolutely no democracy whatsoever has been introduced to the bail-out process and that, I daresay, is how they expected things to carry on. But the bail-out package comes with nasty conditions - public sector pay cuts, tax rises, lower pensions and the like – that it is hard to see any nation accepting without something of a fight. </p>
<p>So it makes sense for the Greek government to give the people the final say on the deal. If they don’t, they are bound to lose power soon anyway – this just gives them something of a chance of hanging on. You can’t have severe austerity without consent of some kind from your electorate. As John Redwood puts it: “In reality, there was no ability to deliver their preferred policy without some means like a referendum of getting people to accept the chosen course of action.” The fact that the Greek government – seemingly alone among Europe’s governments – is prepared to recognise that big events of this sort need discussion with their populations as well as with the euro elite is actually rather heartening. </p>
<p>But the fact that markets are diving this morning should tell us one more thing. Greece has all the power. The talk around the bail-outs is usually about what Germany is prepared to do rather than what Greece is prepared to accept. Germany is assumed to have the power. But Greece has now shown the markets that it just isn’t so. If the Greeks decide they don’t fancy the terms much and announce a disorderly exit, it is game over for the euro, for Europe’s economy and for Germany’s weak-currency driven export boom. </p>
<p>Time for everyone to start being a bit more polite to Greece. A senior member of Angela Merkel’s government has noted that he is irritated: “"Other countries are making considerable sacrifices for decades of mismanagement and poor leadership in Greece,” he says. I suspect that if they don’t want to have to start staving off the next banking crisis, they might have to make a few more.</p>
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<p>It may not matter if he government collapses. It looks like this may be a possibility and if it happens, there may not be a referendum.</p>
<p>OK, so this is a referendum whether to accept 50% freebie and a reduction in the debt they already spent or just go with a default and don’t have to pay anything back at all? Hmm, …</p>
<p>To quote myself: I also find these dramatic shifts in sentiment troubling</p>
<p>The phrase “snatching defeat from the jaws of victory” was created for situations like this Greek referendum thing.</p>