Are you in-state or out of state? I think you have at least a chance either way, but that could make a difference for you.
One thing to consider: It might be your transcript will only show end-of-year grades (you can ask about that), so if the only grade below a B is one C in sophomore year, it might not look so bad. Obviously, you should work to have the end-of-junior-year grades as good as possible.
You might consider applying early decision next fall. One downside is that they won’t see your mid-year grades before their initial decision in December, and if you’re on an upward trend, those mid-year grades could help. Also, if you’re out of state, your parents would have to commit to paying full out-of-state tuition. (If you’re in-state and money is not a big issue, I’m assuming they’d be happy to pay in-state tuition for your dream school.)