I agree with @momofboiler1, except I would also look at Early Action schools. EA (as opposed to ED) is non-binding and does not limit how many schools you apply to EA, nor does it prohibit you from applying to another school ED.
So from your list you can apply EA to UMichigan, U Wisconsin & Reed. If you get into any of these EA, and you can afford it, you know you have your safety. If you don’t get in EA, I think you will have 2-3 weeks between being notified of that and when RD applications are due. It will give you a little heads up as to whether you should add or subtract some of the schools from your list.