Do The USNews Polls Predict Geniuses?

The MacArthur Fellowship (aka “Genius” Awards) were announced this week and I thought it would be interesting since they each trace their beginnings within a few years of each other, to see how the USNews rankings line up with the cumulative total of "Genius " awards received by some of the nation’s top colleges since its inception. There are some surprises. I’m only using the National Liberal Arts Colleges for now. The first numeral represents the number of MacArthur fellowships won; the second represents their ranking in the 2016 USNews poll:

Oberlin 11 (#24)
Swarthmore 10 (#4)
Amherst 8 (#2)
Williams 8 (#1)
Wesleyan 7 (#21)
Haverford 4 (#12)
Vassar 4 (#12)
Wellesley 4 (#3)
Pomona 4 (#7)
Carleton 3 (#7)
Reed 3 (#87)
Grinnell 2 (#19)
Hamilton 2 (#12)
Middlebury 1 (#4)
Davidson 1 (#9)
Bowdoin 1 (#6)

The results are even weaker when you limit them to just the last twenty years of the poll’s existence:

Oberlin 9 (#24)
Swarthmore 7 (#4)
Wesleyan 5 (#21)
Williams 5 (#1)
Amherst 4 (#2)
Carleton 3 (#7)
Vassar 3 (#12)
Wellesley 3 (#3)
Pomona 2 (#7)
Reed 2 (#87)
Grinnell 2 (#19)
Hamilton 1 (#12)
Haverford 1 (#12)
Middlebury 1 (#4)
Davidson 1 (#9)
Bowdoin 1 (#6)

In other words, over the space of thirty years (more than enough time to collect longitudinal data) the USNews poll hasn’t been very predictive of which colleges will produce the most geniuses.

In the first place, the MacArthur grants are not for “geniuses.”

Secondly, how did you collect this data?

Thirdly, although I think it is a useless enterprise, it might be more meaningful if you compared the rate of awards against the population of the college in question vs colleges in general, or something like that.

To me that is like identifying the colleges most represented among employees at the “genius bar” at the Mac Store.

There’s an app for that. Have fun. :slight_smile:
https://www.macfound.org/fellows/search/all

I think, that for this topic, [Betteridge’s law of headlines](Betteridge's law of headlines - Wikipedia) was my first, and the correct, thought on this issue.

I don’t think it’s a useless metric. I thought it was kind of interesting. Many people’s values align more closely with @circuitrider 's MacAruthur Foundation rankings than say PayScale’s ratings.

Both this ranking and PayScale’s are more honest about what they measure than USNews’.

While they might not predict geniuses, the grants are commonly referred to as ‘Genius Grants’. At least 8 times the word ‘Genius’ is used on this page:
https://www.macfound.org/programs/fellows/

I keep saying there are rankings for pretty much anyone out there. If you don’t like any given one, look for another that better suits your needs. And if you find one you like, champion and defend it. Criticize ones you do not like. That will show 'em.

All in links to articles by others. The MacArthur people do not refer to the winners as geniuses nor to the grant as a “genius grant.”

It’s also worth noting that a lot of the grant winners are musicians and performers–that might help explain Oberlin’s success, since it has a world-class conservatory.

Here’s the Oberlin list with year of graduation. Only 2 musicians.

Jad Abumrad (1995), radio producer, known for the NPR-distributed Radiolab[19]
Alison Bechdel (1981), pioneering LGBT cartoonist, author of Dykes to Watch Out For and Fun Home[20]
Claire Chase (2001), flautist and arts entrepreneur[21]
Jeremy Denk (1990), pianist and writer[22]
Ralf Hotchkiss (1969), engineer and businessman[23]
Bill Irwin (1973), actor
Richard Lenski (1977), biologist[citation needed]
Diane E. Meier (1973), doctor, MacArthur Fellowship awarded 2008
Thylias Moss (1981), poet and playwright[24]
Julie Taymor (1974), director, MacArthur Fellowship awarded 1991
Paul Wennberg (1985), chemist

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Oberlin_College_and_Conservatory_people

Can it be accurately inferred that the colleges included in the original post were identified after analysis of all ~239 schools in the NLAC category? If so, the results would tend to be – after allowing for a few premises – highly sustantiating for the US News rankings in general (96% of the fellowships are associated with US News top 25 colleges.)

One specific school on your list is waaaaay down on the US News rankings because they refuse to provide their data and want nothing to do with US News.

They have been ignoring US News since 1995, and have been punished by the rankings ever since. They don’t care and are proud of this fact.

I will let you guess which school.

Reed possesses power as well. Maybe more so than is the case for any other school, their independent stance tends to delegitimize the rankings.

2 of 11 is a pretty good chunk, I’d say. Anyway, those people are all pretty awesome! This year I was happy to see Claudia Rankine get a grant.

Thanks to @circuitrider for starting this interesting ‘extraordinary-student-outcomes’ ranking system. Last year Oberlin had a Rhodes Scholar and Marshall fellow – two of the most prestigious awards in the U.S – not to mention a bucketload of Fulbrights, all while the national press was curdling with stories about so-called ‘coddled’ students. Even if my kid isn’t going to be a Macarthur genius or a Rhodes, it’s nice to know that if they go to a Reed or an Oberlin, they’ll be friends with kids who will.

https://new.oberlin.edu/office/fellowships/

Yep–Oberlin’s a fantastic school!

There is, however, a strong correlation between the MacArthur winners and my tiering by alumni achievements: http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/college-search-selection/1893105-ivy-equivalents-ranking-based-on-alumni-outcomes-take-2-1-p1.html

10 of the 11 LACs that have 3 or more MacArthur winners are one of the 14 LACs I count as Ivy-equivalents while Vassar is in the next tier of 7 private LACs that are near-Ivies.

Bryn Mawr, CMC, and Smith are the only LACs I count as Ivy-equivalent (top 14) who don’t have a single MacArthur winner.

Actually, @PurpleTitan, I was thinking the same thing as I was pulling up the winners. Unfortunately, I don’t have your stamina; I had to draw the line at those NLACs. Most had a page or less of alumni to comb through. To put that into perspective, Harvard had eight pages, not counting graduate and professional school alum.

@circuitrider : Would your analysis be comprehensive for all ~239 NLACs?

More generally, could I ask why you describe the US News rankings as a “poll?”

@merc81 wrote:

I can’t claim that because I didn’t do the analysis for all ~239 NLACs as my best guess was that it would be a matter of diminishing returns. Notable NLACs, early in the alphabet, such as Claremont-McKenna, Colby and Colgate were already yielding -0- results. However, your post did cause me to do some fact-checking and as a result I will take away one of Wesleyan’s fellowship winners from the “longer than 20 years ago” category because that fellow’s baccalaureate origin was actually Connecticut College. He earned his doctorate at Wesleyan. I’m also adding Bates and Trinity to round out the NESCAC possibilities:

Oberlin 11 (#24)
Swarthmore 10 (#4)
Amherst 8 (#2)
Williams 8 (#1)
Wesleyan 6 (#21)
Haverford 4 (#12)
Vassar 4 (#12)
Wellesley 4 (#3)
Pomona 4 (#7)
Carleton 3 (#7)
Reed 3 (#87)
Grinnell 2 (#19)
Hamilton 2 (#12)
Trinity 2 (#38)
Bates 1 (#27)
Bowdoin 1 (#6)
Connecticut 1 (#50)
Davidson 1 (#9)
Middlebury 1 (#4)

The results are even weaker when you limit them to just the last twenty years of the poll’s existence:

Oberlin 9 (#24)
Swarthmore 7 (#4)
Wesleyan 5 (#21)
Williams 5 (#1)
Amherst 4 (#2)
Carleton 3 (#7)
Vassar 3 (#12)
Wellesley 3 (#3)
Grinnell 2 (#19)
Pomona 2 (#7)
Reed 2 (#87)
Bates 1 (#27)
Bowdoin 1 (#6)
Connecticut 1 (#50)
Davidson 1 (#9)
Hamilton 1 (#12)
Haverford 1 (#12)
Middlebury 1 (#4)
Trinity 1 (#38)

I think common usage of the term, “poll” dates back to when the first publication of the ranking was literally that: a poll of deans and presidents as to their opinion of the best colleges, divided into two large groups, research universities and national liberal arts colleges. It went on that way until the poll became a vestigial remain and virtual echo chamber of the rankings added bells and whistles.

Also, I like a little alliteration in the subject line. :slight_smile: